Wednesday 31 July 2013

AUGUSTS 2013 POLITICAL POP CHART

 There is always something new to find out when doing this monthly chart. Alexa have had a tidy up of their site and have some information more readily available such as time spent on the websites and page view trends. So I have now started a new chart down at the bottom which covers time spent on the political website and makes for interesting reading.

For the regular chart it is with deep regret that it shows the BNP at the top of the chart again, They topped the first chart but had been sliding down but they now seem to be firmly at the top of political websites visited. I put it down to as many people against them looking as those support them ranting.

Labour also move up in the UK ranking so hold onto 2nd but the GREEN PARTY have now over taken UKIP and gone into 3rd place. They certainly seem to be doing something right as their traffic has increased and time spent on their website is top at over 14 mins.

UKIP have slipped down to 4th presumably the mid election lull and may go back up as it gets closer to the european elections next year.

Lib Dems saw a dramatic rise in their UK ranking and as such have nearly over taken the Conservatives. J4M&B are still slowly climbing even though they are still to stand a candidate in any elections.

NHA PARTY are the only party to drop from UK to GLOBAL rankings with the CHRISTIAN PARTY having so few visits they have dropped down to NO DATA. All the smaller parties are seeing a decrease in visitors at the moment and all rankings are lowering.

Now for the new part. Time spent on the site. The top three would not have been the ones I would have thought of which is GREENS, ALLIANCE & LIBDEMS. I have checked the figures and it seems people really do take in what is put on the sites. At the other end of the spectrum you have THE ENGLISH DEMOCRATS which capture the attention of its visitor for 47 seconds only.

Will be interesting to compare next month when I do Septembers political pop chart.

LINK  for past pop charts and all the records I keep such as twitter/facebook followers for political parties

EACH LINK IS TO ALEXA.COM PAGE ALEXA RANKING EXPLAINED click the link.

Last months rankings in brackets

UK RANKING

1 (1) BNP 4,696
2 (2) LABOUR 8,748
3 (4) THE GREEN PARTY 11,072
4 (3) UKIP 12,118
5 (5) CONSERVATIVES 16,366
6 (6) LIBERAL DEMOCRATS 16,530
7 (7) SNP 33,938
8 (10) JUSTICE FOR MEN AND BOYS PARTY 52,329
9 (8) SINN FEIN 111,927
10 (-) DEMOCRATIC UNIONIST PARTY 190,142
11 (12) PLAID CYMRU 359,277

GLOBAL RANKING

ULSTER UNIONIST PARTY 3,595,900
THE RESPECT PARTY 3,731,728
NHA PARTY 4,484,415
UK GENERAL ELECTION 2015 4,556,258
TUSC 5,039,983
ENGLISH DEMOCRATS  6,222,819
LOONEY PARTY 6,393,545
NI 21  7,122,917
THE ALLIANCE PARTY 8,607,237
MEBYON KERNOW - THE PARTY OF CORNWALL 9,799,224
SCOTTISH DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE 13,828,341

NO DATA

CHRISTIAN PARTY
WESSEX REGIONALISTS 
PEOPLES DEMOCRATIC PARTY OF GREAT BRITAIN 
NEWCASTLE FIRST

TIME SPENT ON THE PARTY WEBSITE

Daily Time on Site
Estimated daily time on site (mm:ss) per visitor to the site. 

THE GREEN PARTY 14 mins 4 secs
THE ALLIANCE PARTY 11 mins 51 secs
LIBERAL DEMOCRATS 7 mins 36 secs
LABOUR 5 mins 11 secs
NI 21 4 mins 30 secs
BNP 4 mins
UKIP 3 mins 30 secs
UK GENERAL ELECTION 2015 BLOG 2 mins 44 secs
THE RESPECT PART 2mins 35 secs
DEMOCRATIC UNIONIST PARTY 2mins 34 secs
SNP 2 mins 23 secs
SINN FEIN 2 mins 18 secs
CONSERVATIVES 2 mins 19 secs
TUSC 2 mins 4 secs
NHA PARTY 2 mins 1 sec
JUSTICE FOR MEN AND BOYS PARTY 2 mins 1 sec
PLAID CYMRU 1 min 48 secs
ULSTER UNIONIST PARTY 60 secs
ENGLISH DEMOCRATS 47 secs

Saturday 27 July 2013

Upcoming council by elections

 Thanks to Middle Englander again for collating the info

There are 18 by-elections during August and 9 already in September along with another 14 known vacancies where there is no date as yet for the by-election.

1st August - 5
Amber Valley DC, Codnor & Waingroves - Labour died
Caerphilly BC, Penyrheol - Plaid Cymru died
Norfolk CC, Thetford West - UKIP resigned
Ribble Valley BC, Littlemoor - Conservative resigned
Worcestershire CC, St Mary's - UKIP died

8th August - 4
Merton LB, Colliers Wood - Labour died
Redcar & Cleveland UA, Skelton - Labour resigned
Swindon UA, Haydon Wick - Conservative died
Waveney DC, Oulton - Labour died

15th August - 4
Hartlepool UA, Manor House - Labour resigned
Torridge DC, Shebbear & Langtry - Conservative resigned
Walsall MB, Aldridge Central & South - Conservative died
West Berkshire UA, Hungerford - Conservative died

22nd August - 4
Doncaster MB, Askern Spa - Labour resigned following election as Mayor
Lincoln DC, Bracebridge - Conservative sitting as Independent disqualified
Scarborough DC, Newby - Independent resigned
Scarborough DC, Ramshill - Conservative resigned

29th August - 1
South Lakeland DC, Windermere Bowness North - Lib Dem resigned

5th September - 6
Boston BC, Fenside - English Democrat disqualified
Carlisle BC, Yewdale - Labour died
Cornwall UA, Wadebridge East - Independent resigned
Northamptonshire CC, Middleton Cheney - Conservative died
St Edmundsbury DC, Bardwell - Conservative died
Wycombe DC Hambleden Valley - Conservative died

12th September - 3
Central Bedfordshire UA, Dunstable Northfields - Conservative died
Hertfordshire CC, Hitchin North - Labour died
North Herts DC, Hitchen Houghton - Labour died

Current known vacancies where by-election not yet called - 14
Barnsley MB, Wombwell - Labour died around 24th July
Canterbury BC. Seasalter - Conservative died around 22nd July
Daventry DC, Ravensthorpe - Conservative died 19th June
Dudley MB, Coseley East - Labour died 5th June
East Hants DC, Four Marks & Medstead - Conservative resigned around 17th July
Fife UA, Dumferline South - Labour died 25th July
Forest of Dean DC, Coleford East - Labour died 19th June
Forest of Dean DC, Redmarley - Conservative died 1st July
Glasgow UA, Govan - SNP died 23rd July
Neath Port Talbot CB, Sandsfield East - Labour died 26th June
North Yorkshire CC, South Selby - Conservative died 17th June
St Helens MB, Billinge & Seneley - Labour resigned around 15th May
Tendring DC, Clacton St James - Conservative died 5th July
West Sussex CC, Storrington - Conservative died 21st July

Impending vacancies - 3
Brent LB, Dudden Hill - Lib Dem councillor
Flintshire CC, Mostyn - Independent councillor disqualified pending an appeal
Scottish Borders UA, Tweeddale West - Conservative councillor

5 COUNCIL BY ELECTIONS (1st AUGUST)

Click the link for the council election you are interested in.

Find the candidates, past election results, ward maps and ONS DATA

AMBER VALLEY - CODNOR & WAINGROVES COUNCIL BY ELECTION

CAERPHILLY - PENYRHEOL COUNCIL BY ELECTION

NORFOLK - THETFORD WEST COUNCIL BY ELECTION

RIBBLE VALLEY - LITTLEMOOR COUNCIL BY ELECTION

WORCESTERSHIRE - ST MARY'S COUNCIL BY ELECTION

WORCESTERSHIRE - ST MARY'S COUNCIL BY ELECTION

WORCESTERSHIRE - St Mary's (UKIP died)

2013 - UKIP 595, Con 545, Lab 507, KHHC 336, Lib 140, Grn 46
2009 - Con 817, LD 536, KHHC 477, UKIP 431, Lab 270
2005 - Lab 1279, Con 1206, LD 1076, KHHC 732, Lib 235

Mumshad AHMED (The Labour Party Candidate)
Graham BALLINGER (Independent Community and Health Concern)
Nathan DESMOND (The Conservative Party Candidate)
Helen DYKE (Independent)
Peter WILLOUGHBY (UK Independence Party (UKIP))

1st AUGUST 2013


Ward mapONS data
 

linklink
 

RIBBLE VALLEY - LITTLEMOOR COUNCIL BY ELECTION

RIBBLE VALLEY - Littlemoor (Conservative resigned)

2011 - LD 361/305, Con 343/321, Lab 226/193
2007 - LD 552/496, Con 318/311, Ind 111
2003 - LD 755/700, Con 326, BNP 292

Jean FORSHAW (The Conservative Party Candidate)
Steve RUSH (Independent)
James SHERVEY (Liberal Democrats)
Liz WEBBE (The Labour Party)

1st AUGUST 2013

Ward map - ONS data
 

NORFOLK - THETFORD WEST COUNCIL BY ELECTION

NORFOLK - Thetford West (UKIP resigned)

2013 - UKIP 814, Lab 813, Con 353, CPA 134, LD 122, Grn 64
2009 - LD 934, Con 882, Lab 706
2005 - Lab 2101, Con 1268, LD 1027

Tristan ASHBY (The Conservative Party Candidate)
Danny JEFFREY (Independent)
Terry JERMY (Labour Party Candidate)
John NEWTON (UK Independence Party)
Sandra WALMSLEY (Green Party)
 
1st AUGUST 2013
Ward map - ONS data

CAERPHILLY - PENYRHEOL COUNCIL BY ELECTION

CAERPHILLY - Penyrheol (Plaid Cymru died)

2012 - PC 1361/1196/1110/992, Lab 1074/917/871/851, Ind 398, TUSC 174
2008 - PC 1924/1687/1672/1491, Lab 1021/993/913, Ind 628
Mar 2006 by - PC 788, Lab 686, Con 139, LD 85
2004 - PC 1753/1549/1472/1384, Lab 1055/1048/1024/840, Ind 479

Jaime DAVIES (Trade Unionists and Socialists Against Cuts)
Cameron MUIR-JONES (Welsh Conservative Party Candidate / Ymgeisydd Plaid Geidwadol Cymru)
Gareth PRATT (Welsh Labour / Llafur Cymru)
Steve SKIVENS (Plaid Cymru / The Party of Wales)

1st AUGUST 2013

Ward map - ONS data
 

AMBER VALLEY - CODNOR & WAINGROVES COUNCIL BY ELECTION

AMBER VALLEY - Codnor and Waingroves (Labour died)

2012 - Lab 825, Con 339, UKIP 198, BNP 59
2010 - Lab 1159, Con 1127, BNP 391
2008 - Lab 573, Con 572, BNP 228
2006 - Lab 676, Con 424, LD 183

Ron ASHTON (The Conservative Party Candidate)
Keith FALCONBRIDGE (Liberal Democrat)
Isobel HARRY (The Labour Party Candidate)
Garry SMITH (UK Independence Party
 
1st AUGUST 2013
 
Ward map - ONS data

linklink

SUMMARY OF COUNCIL BY ELECTIONS FOR JULY

MiddleEnglander excels himself again, thanks for the review.

There were 18 by-elections in July with 8 (44%) changing hands.

Party  Candidates     Defended     Retained    Gained       Lost         Won     Retention rate
Conservatives         18         7         3       2       4        5         43%
Labour         16         6         6       1
        7       100%
Lib Dems         10         2
       2       2        2           0%
Plaid Cymru           1





UKIP         11





Greens           4         1

       1
           0%
Independents *           8         2         1       3       1        4         50%
National Front           1





SPGB           1





TUSAC           3





No Description           1





Total         74       74       10       8       8      18        56%

* 8 candidates contesting 7 seats

Conservatives gained 2 seats, 1 from Lib Dems and 1 from an Independent, whilst losing 4 seats, 2 to Lib Dems and 2 to Independents
- gained Kingston-upon-Thames, Beverley from Lib Dems on ~9% swing since 2010 following resignation in disgrace of former Council Leader
- gained third seat in South Cambridgeshire, Sawston from an Independent in ward where Conservatives easily won in other years
- lost Broadlands, Aylesham to a Lib Dem on a ~10% swing in a "split" ward where 2 Conservatives and 1 Lib Dem were elected in both 2011 and 2007
- lost Vale of White Horse, Fitzharris to a Lib Dem on a ~4% swing in a "split" ward in 2011 where Lib Dems won both seats in 2007
- lost Conwy, Caerhun on a ~10% swing to a long serving Independent who regained the seat lost narrowly in 2012
- lost North Somerset, Weston-super-Mare to an Independent who had previously been a well known Conservative
Labour gained Brighton & Hove, Hanover & Elm Grove from Greens on a ~11% swing since 2011 in a traditional Green ward
Independent gained Forest Heath, Exning from a Lib Dem, who did not contest the seat, in a straight fight with a former Conservative ward councillor

There have now been 44 by-elections since the main May elections with 20 (45%) changing hands:
- Conservatives have gained 2 seats but lost 11, 6 to Labour, 2 each to Lib Dems and Independents and 1 to UKIP
- Labour have gained 8 seats, 6 from Conservatives, 1 Green and 1 SNP, whilst losing a seat to UKIP
- Lib Dems have gained 2 seats from Conservatives whilst losing 1 each to Conservatives, UKIP and Independent
- Greens lost both seats defended, 1 to Labour and 1 to a Residents Association
- UKIP gained 3 seats, 1 each from Conservative, Labour and Lib Dems, whilst losing a seat to Health Concern
- SNP lost 1 seat to Labour
- Health Concern gained 1 seat from UKIP
- Whitwell Residents Association gained 1 seat from a Green, who did not defend the seat
- Independents gained 3 seats, 2 from Conservatives and 1 from Lib Dem, who did not contest the seat, whilst losing 1 to a Conservative

A fuller analysis to be undertaken at the end of August.

THE PRICE OF A VOTE IN SOUTH SHIELDS

http://www.shieldsgazette.com/news/revealed-the-cost-of-winning-and-losing-south-shields-by-election-1-5859924

LABOUR 12,493 votes / spent £81,688.92 = £6.54 a vote
UKIP 5,988 votes / spent £47,704 = £7.97 a vote
CONSERVATIVES 2,857 votes / spent £5,292.45 = £1.85 a vote
INDEPENDENT KHAN 1,331 votes / spent £3,189.95 = £2.40 a vote
INDEPENDENT SOCIALIST PARTY 750 votes / spent £1,058.99 = £1.41a vote
BNP 711 votes / spent £399.99 = 56 pence a vote
LIBDEMS 352 votes / spent £6,302 = £17.91 a vote
LOONEY PARTY 197 vote / spent £403 = £2.04
INDEPENDENT TOM 57 votes / spent £2,701.91 = £48.95


WHAT THE CANDIDATES SPENT
EMMA LEWELL-BUCK
Won with 12,493 votes (50.51 per cent)
TOTAL SPEND: £81,688.92
Advertising: £1,531.67
Unsolicited materials £25,293.64
Transport: £1,080.61
Agents/staff: £48,786.88
Accommodation/admin: £4,996.12
* Costs included £5,122.33 on postage and £2,343 on envelopes. £50 was spent on balloons and £347.43 on helium to blow the balloons up.
RICHARD ELVIN
Finished second with 5,988 (24.21 per cent)
TOTAL SPEND: £47,704
Advertising: £7,467.55
Unsolicited materials: £33,485.61
Transport: £1,243.14
Public meetings: £50
Agent and other staff costs: £4,800
Accommodation/admin: £658.65
* Costs included £3,000 to rent campaign office at a retail unit in King Street, South Shields, £118 for a night spent at the Sir William Fox Hotel in Westoe Village and £46.85 on a meal at Coffea Caban in South Shields’s Market Place.
KAREN ALLEN
Finished third with 2,857 (11.55 per cent of the vote)
TOTAL SPEND: £5,292.45
Advertising: £96
Unsolicited materials to electors (election leaflets/pamphlets etc): £4,315.99
Agent/staff: £740
Accommodation and Administration: £140
INDEPENDENT: Ahmed Khan.
Finished fourth with 1,331 votes (5.38 per cent)
TOTAL COSTS: £587.95
Unsolicited materials: £2,602
INDEPENDENT SOCIALIST PARTY: Philip Brown.
Finished fifth with 750 votes (3.03 per cent)
TOTAL SPEND: £1,058.99
Advertising: £71.99
Unsolicited materials: £987
BRITISH NATIONAL PARTY: Dorothy Macbeth Brookes.
Finished sixth with 711 votes (2.87 per cent)
TOTAL SPEND: £399.99
Unsolicited materials: £399.99
LIBERAL DEMOCRATS
Mr Annand polled a miserly 352 votes – despite being the third biggest spender at £6,302. In real terms that meant every single vote won cost a whopping £17.91
MONSTER RAVING LOONEY PARTY: Alan ‘Howling Laud’ Hope.
Finished eighth with 197 votes (0.80 per cent)
TOTAL COSTS: £403
Costs included £243 on accommodation at Douglas Vaults pub in South Shields – his campaign headquarters.
INDEPENDENT: Tom Darwood.
Finished last with 57 votes (0.23 per cent)
TOTAL SPEND: £2,701.91
Advertising: £1,181
Transport: £400
Accommodation/admin: £1,120.91
Personal expenses: £400

Friday 26 July 2013

HARWICH TOWN COUNCIL BY ELECTION RESULT

Harwich West Central Lab 279 UKIP 249 CRP 118
Harwich West Lab 277 UKIP 242 Lib Dem 99 CRP 50

There are vacancies in Harwich West and Harwich West Central wards (co-terminous with the district ward of the same name) due to the resignations of Ricky Callender and Claire Callender, both COnservatives. The cause seems to be pique - Ricky Callender was defeated for re-election as Harwich's county councillor, and the next day he and his daughter resigned from the town council. Both remain as district councillors.

Past results:

West
District 2011: Lab 683/557 Con 671/547 CRP 180/138 Ind 177
Town 2011: Con 719/611 Lab 688/564/556/485 CRP 298/256 Ind 265
District March 2013: Lab 282 Con 220 CRP 163 LD 143
Town March 2013: Lab 345 Con 204 LD 148 CRP 111

Note that the Tendring DC website doesn't give party labels for the 2011 town council elections, but I presume they were on the ballot paper.

West Central
District 2011: Lab 631 Con 534/445 CRP 342/311 Ind 231/199
Town 2011: Lab 635/426/401/389 Con 540/462 CRP 372/369/288/263 Ind 262/246
Town May 2012: Lab 599 Con 334 CRP 180

Harwich West Central is a Lab/UKIP/CRP fight, whilst Harwich West is Lab/UKIP/CRP/LD.

GENERAL ELECTION RESULT JULY 2013

Election results for July 2013

Well, it would appear that more or less The Conservatives have catapulted from hanging on to the skin of their teeth to becoming the only game in town. This seems to be down to the fact that both Labour and the LibDems have been working hard at offering nothing visible to say, combined with UKIP still loitering around in second place because of some residual hangover from last month. Give it any longer and we think you'll see the Cons being challenged by The Monster Raving Loony Party, or perhaps aliens. It all points to a long-term creep towards total disaffection and lack of trust at what all these dudes are up to. Good.

Geographic Breakdown

Overall


Conservative28.17%

UK Independence Party21.13%

National Health Action Party9.86%

Labour8.45%

Liberal Democrat8.45%

Green8.45%

Undecided4.23%

Independent2.82%

Ni212.82%

Sinn Fein1.41%

Ulster Unionists1.41%

Respect Party1.41%

Scottish National Party1.41%

England


Conservative30.00%

UK Independence Party21.67%

Labour10.00%

Liberal Democrat10.00%

National Health Action Party10.00%

Green8.33%

Undecided5.00%

Independent3.33%

Respect Party1.67%

Scotland


Conservative50.00%

Scottish National Party50.00%

Wales


UK Independence Party50.00%

Green25.00%

National Health Action Party25.00%

Northern Ireland


Ni2140.00%

Conservative20.00%

Sinn Fein20.00%

Ulster Unionists20.00%

FPTP V PROPORTIONAL VOTING

I only had enough time to post what I had found about the latest Welsh Opinion polls http://ukgeneralelection2015.blogspot.co.uk/2013/07/welsh-opinion-poll.html follow the link to read it all and see the source.

But one thing stuck out, which was the difference between a person giving their intention when it was for a FPTP system and so voting for the one they think will win, want to win or vote for to keep someone else out. Opposed to a system where within reason every vote counts in the proportional system.

UK General Election Voting Intention
Labour: 48%
Conservative: 23%
Lib-Dems: 8%
Plaid Cymru: 9%
UKIP: 8%
Others: 4%

National Assembly Election Voting Intention (Regional List Vote)
Labour: 25%
Conservative: 12%
Lib-Dems: 9%
Plaid Cymru: 23%
UKIP: 16%
Others: 14%

DIFFERENCE

Labour 23% decrease
Conservatives 11% decrease
Lib Dems 1% increase
UKIP 8% increase
Paid Cymru 14% increase

Now one factor is the difference between who represents you in one parliament opposed to a local assembly. But still just how much of an affect does FPTP v PROPORTIONAL have?
Does the feeling your vote will count make a difference? Will they then vote for who they want not who they do or don't want to win?

Your thoughts are welcome.

LATEST POLITICAL PARTY INCOME AND MEMBERSHIP FIGURES

Source is taken from the Daily Mail as you will see from the links below. 

Latest figures of just a few weeks ago showed UKIP on 30,000 members (up 10k from these figures) so have they now over taken the Lib Dems for membership as well? If Lib Dems are in such steep decline. 

Also begs the question again of who gets all the money? Labour has more money flooding in than the Tories & Lib Dems combined. I am sure that will get some mileage in the next few years.

Labour's income in 2012 was around £2.75million more than that of the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats combined.
Ed Miliband's party had a total income of just over £33million and spent around £30.2 million.
It compared to an income of £24.2 million and expenditure of £23.3 million for David Cameron's Tories.

Meanwhile, Nick Clegg's Liberal Democrats took in just over £6 million and spent more than £6.4 million

However the accounts, released by the Electoral Commission, also Labour's membership also dropped, from 193,961 in 2010 and 193,300 in 2011 to 187,537 last year.
Labour's income was up from £31.2 million in 2011 and Conservative funds also rose from £23.7 million, while Lib Dems saw a small fall from £6.2 million.
Both the Scottish National Party and the UK Independence Party bucked the trend of falling membership figures.

The SNP saw membership soar from 16,232 in 2010 to 24,732 in 2012, on the back of the party's capture of overall control in Holyrood, while Nigel Farage's UKIP has grown from 15,535 in 2010 to 20,409 last year.

Meanwhile, membership of the far-right British National Party continued to tumble, from 14,046 in 2010 to 7,651 in 2011 and just 4,872 in 2012.

The SNP had an income of £2.3 million in 2012, UKIP £1.2 million and the BNP £462,450.

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2377693/More-half-Lib-Dem-members-want-power-sharing-deal-Labour-2015.html#ixzz2a8YtTit2
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook

Somewhere the Lib Dems are winning.

 I don't normally report town council results but as it has the rarity of two Lib Dem wins from Labour I thought I would give it an airing.

Maghull TC (Sefton Central consituency, Sefton MBC)

Maghull East: Lib Dem 621 (46.2%) Lab 557 (41.5%) UKIP 165 (12.3%)
Lib Dem gain from Lab

Maghull North: Lib Dem 546 (52.0%) Lab 504 (48%)
Lib Dem gain from Lab

Maghull South: Lab 180 (42.4%) Lib Dem 171 (40.2%) UKIP 74 (17.4%)
Lab hold

25TH JULY 7 COUNCIL BY ELECTION RESULTS

Below you will find the results for the 7 by council by elections held yesterday. Click the link for the information you are looking for.

BRAINTREE - BRAINTREE EAST BY ELECTION RESULT (LAB HOLD)

EAST NORTHAMPTONSHIRE - THRAPSTON MARKET BY ELECTION RESULT (CON HOLD)

ELMBRIDGE - WEYBRIDGE SOUTH BY ELECTION RESULT (CON HOLD)

KINGSTON UPON THAMES - BEVERLEY BY ELECTION RESULT (CON GAIN)

LAMBETH - TULSE HILL BY ELECTION RESULT (LAB HOLD)

NORTH SOMERSET - WESTON SUPER MARE NORTH WORLE (INDY GAIN)

UTTLESFORD - FELSTED BY ELECTION RESULT (CON HOLD)

EAST NORTHAMPTONSHIRE - THRAPSTON MARKET BY ELECTION RESULT (CON HOLD)

Conservative 396
Ind 210
Lab 166
UKIP 146


EAST NORTHAMPTONSHIRE - Thrapston Market (Conservative resigned)

2011 - Con 754/586, Ind 604
2007 - Con x2 unopposed

Valerie CARTER (Independent)
Joseph GARNER (UKIP)
Alex IZYCKY (The Labour Party Candidate)
Alex SMITH (Conservative Party Candidate)

KINGSTON UPON THAMES - BEVERLEY BY ELECTION RESULT (CON GAIN)

C 1,033
L Dem 760
Lab 717
UKIP 223
GP 207

Con 35.14%
LD 25.85%
Lab 24.39%
UKIP 7.59%
Green 7.04%

KINGSTON-UPON-THAMES - Beverley (Liberal Democrat resigned)

2010 - LD 2138/2081/2044, Con 1738/1591/1530, Lab 657/566/474, Grn 581, CPA 158/139/139
2006 - LD 1398/1391/1385, Con 972/936/874, Grn 416, Lab 284/275/268, CPA 125/93/80
2002 - LD 1653/1632/1609, Con 945/939/889, Lab 249/236/218, CPA 117

Marian FREEDMAN (The Labour Party Candidate)
Lesley HEAP (Liberal Democrats)
Terence PATON (Conservative Party)
Chris WALKER (The Green Party)
Michael WATSON (UK Independence Party (UKIP))


NORTH SOMERSET - WESTON SUPER MARE NORTH WORLE (INDY GAIN)

North Somerset, Weston-super-Mare North Worle - Independent gain from Conservative

Party  2013 votes     2013 share   since 2011 "top"since 2011 "average"since 2007 "top"since 2007 "average"
Independent M        531      25.5% from nowhere    from nowhere from nowhere    from nowhere
Conservative        471      22.6%       -27.5%          -26.4%       -23.8%          -24.1%
Labour        445      21.4%         -1.9%            -2.6%        +8.2%           +9.3%
Lib Dems        321       15.4%       -11.2%          -11.5%         -9.8%          -10.0%
UKIP        220      10.6% from nowhere    from nowhere        +3.0%           +2.8%
Independent L          93        4.5% from nowhere    from nowhere from nowhere    from nowhere
Independent



        -7.7%            -7.9%
Total votes     2,081
        -498           -352         +43           +105

2007 was a deferred election
Swing not particularly meaningful but around 25% Conservative to Independent, who was a well known Conservative supporter

NORTH SOMERSET - Weston-Super-Mare North Worle (Conservative resigned)

2011 - Con 1293/1183/1101, LD 686/671/609, Lab 600/596/559
Jun 2007 - Con 946/920/904, LD 513/498/494, Lab 268/234/218, Ind 157, UKIP 154 (postponed poll)
2003 - LD 1356/1236/1143, Con 627/610, Lab 268/248/243

Denise HUNT (Labour Party Candidate)
Edward KEATING (Liberal Democrats)
Rachel LING (Independent)
Derek MEAD (Independent)
Richard NIGHTINGALE (The Conservative Party Candidate)
Steven PEARSE-DANKER (UK Independence Party (UKIP))

UTTLESFORD - FELSTED BY ELECTION RESULT (CON HOLD)

Con 557
LD 253
UKIP 181
Lab 38

UTTLESFORD - Felsted (Conservative disqualified)

2011 - Con 1204/1113, LD 320/314
2007 - Con 824/740, LD 585/554
2003 - LD 539/531, Con 336/298

Marie FELTON (Conservative Party Candidate)
Alan STANNARD (UK Independence Party (UKIP))
Antoinette WATTEBOT (Liberal Democrats)
Yad ZANGANAH (Labour Party Candidate

LAMBETH - TULSE HILL BY ELECTION RESULT (LAB HOLD)

Labour hold Tulse Hill

Labour 1575,
LD 277,
Green 177,
TUSC 76,
Con 74,
UKIP 64,
Ind 20,
Soc 11

 Labour        69.3%
Lib Dem      12.2%
Green         7.8%
TUSC          3.4%
Con            3.3%
UKIP           2.8%
Ind              0.9%
Soc             0.5%


2010 - Lab 3232/3186/3160, LD 1764/1748/1668, Grn 759/698/656, Con 608/556/503
2006 - Lab 1589/1528/1514, Grn 718, LD 582/432/374, Con 353/309/306
2002 - Lab 1219/1078/1017, Grn 440/333, LD 334/290/285, Con 225/215/184, SocAll 171

Amna AHMAD (Liberal Democrats)
Mary ATKINS (The Labour Party Candidate)
Bernard ATWELL (Green Party)
Timothy BRIGGS (Conservative Party Candidate)
Adam BUICK (The Socialist Party (GB))
Elizabeth JONES (UK Independence Party (UKIP))
Steve NALLY (Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition)
Valentine WALKER (Independent)

BRAINTREE - BRAINTREE EAST BY ELECTION RESULT (LAB HOLD)

Labour 461
Conservative 267
UKIP 194
Green 67

turnout 18.96%

Labour             46.6%
Conservative   27%
UKIP                19.6%
Green              6.8%

BRAINTREE - Braintree East (Labour died)
Mar 2012 by - Lab 554, Con 388, UKIP 131, Grn 76, Ind 32
2011 - Lab 762/756/710, Con 759/691/668, Grn 297
Jun 2008 by - Con 668, Lab 406, Grn 125, LD 119
2007 - Lab 581/541/516, Con 546/507/483, UKIP 266, LD 247/244
2003 - Lab 597/531/502, Con 304, Ind 254/228, LD 219/216

Celia BURNE (Labour Party Candidate)
John MALAM (Green Party candidate)
Philip PALIJ (UK Independence Party (UKIP))
Jennifer SMITH (The Conservative Party Candidate)

ELMBRIDGE - WEYBRIDGE SOUTH BY ELECTION RESULT (CON HOLD)

Con 274 (48.6%)
LD 150 (26.6%)
UKIP 140 (24.8%)

ELMBRIDGE - Weybridge South (Conservative resigned)

2012 - Con 638, LD 173, Lab 107
2010 - Con 1434, LD 649, Lab 152
2008 - Con 679, Ind 227, LD 192
2006 - Con 786, LD 271

Richard KNIGHT (The Conservative Party Candidate)
Ian LAKE (UKIP)
Gillian SOLWAY (Liberal Democrats)

Thursday 25 July 2013

Welsh Opinion Poll

http://blogs.cf.ac.uk/electionsinwales/

Above link has the full source

UK General Election Voting Intention
Labour: 48% (+12%)
Conservative: 23% (-3%)
Lib-Dems: 8% (-12%)
Plaid Cymru: 9% (-2%)
UKIP: 8% (+6%)
Others: 4%

National Assembly Election Voting Intention (Constituency Vote)
Labour: 46% (+4%)
Conservative: 19% (-6%)
Lib-Dems: 8% (-3%)
Plaid Cymru: 17% (-2%)
UKIP: 6% (+6%)
Others: 3%

National Assembly Election Voting Intention (Regional List Vote)
Labour: 25% (-12%)
Conservative: 12% (-11%)
Lib-Dems: 9% (+1)
Plaid Cymru: 23% (+5%)
UKIP: 16% (+11%)
Others: 14% (+6%)

What would be the implications of these changes for seats (if we assume uniform national swings from 2010/2011)?
The next UK general election would yield the following seat outcomes (change from 2010 in brackets):

Labour: 34 (+8)
Conservative: 4 (-4)
Lib-Dems: 1 (-2)
Plaid Cymru: 1 (-2)

The seats to change hands would be:
Aberconwy (LAB gain from CON)
Arfon (LAB gain from PC)
Brecon and Radnor (CON gain from LD)
Cardiff Central (LAB gain from LD)
Cardiff North (LAB gain from CON)
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr (LAB gain from PC)
Carmarthen West and South Pembs (LAB gain from CON)
Preseli Pembrokeshire (Lab gain from CON)
Vale of Glamorgan (LAB gain from CON)

The Assembly voting intention figures suggest the following outcome:

Constituency Seats:
Labour: 31 (+3)
Conservative: 3 (-3)
Lib-Dems: 1 (no change)
Plaid Cymru: 5 (no change)

The seats to change hands would be:
Aberconwy (LAB gain from CON)
Carmarthen West and South Pembs (LAB gain from CON)
Preseli Pembrokeshire (Lab gain from CON)

Regional List Seats:
Labour: 0
Conservatives: 3 (1 each in North, Mid & West, and South Central)
Lib-Dems: 1 (South West)
Plaid Cymru: 8 (1 each in North and Mid & West; 2 in each of South West, South Central and South East)
UKIP: 8 (1 each in South West and South Central; 2 each in North, Mid & West, and South East)

This produces an overall outcome of:
Labour: 31 seats
Conservative: 6 seats
Lib-Dems: 2 seats
Plaid Cymru: 13 seats
UKIP: 8 seats

How many Lib Dems will be left?

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/je0tthbawb/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-240713.pdf

The latest YOU GOV polling is out today and the LIBDEMS are on the slide again. Only retaining a third of their vote from 2010. They struggle in some parts of the country to reach 5% and nationally are at 8% below you will see what they would get when the figures are put into the electoral calculus.

National Prediction: LAB majority 46

Party2010 Votes2010 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesPred Seats
CON36.97%30735.00%2867268
LAB29.66%25839.00%900348
LIB23.56%578.00%0489
UKIP3.17%011.00%000
NAT2.26%92.26%027
MIN0.89%10.89%010
OTH3.48%03.85%000

The LIBDEMS would lose 48 seats leaving just 9 seats. This must be making a lot of libdems MPs twitchy.

7 COUNCIL BY ELECTIONS TODAY

Click the links below to find the information for the council by election you are interested in.

Each link gives you the list of candidates, Past results, ward map and ONS data.

BRAINTREE - BRAINTREE EAST COUNCIL BY ELECTION

EAST NORTHAMPTONSHIRE - THRAPSTON MARKET COUNCIL BY ELECTION

ELMBRIDGE - Weybridge South COUNCIL BY ELECTION

KINGSTON-UPON-THAMES - Beverley COUNCIL BY ELECTION

LAMBETH - TULSE HILL COUNCIL BY ELECTION

NORTH SOMERSET - Weston-Super-Mare North Worle COUNCIL BY ELECTION

UTTLESFORD - FELSTED COUNCIL BY ELECTION 

 CANDIDATES CONSIST OF.

7 CONSERVATIVES
7 UKIP
6 LABOUR
5 LIB DEM
4 INDYS
3 GREENS
1 TUSC
1 SOCIALIST

Also if you wish to take part in a online poll that election is on today

http://voteyourgoat.com/election

Monday 22 July 2013

GIVE US YOUR VOTE NOW!!!

http://www.voteyourgoat.com/election 

Just wanted to let folks know that it is 2 days and 8 hours until the polls open on the VOTE YOUR GOAT website.

I think it is good to have an independent polling system which doesn't depend on weighting of voting intentions but simply on clicks per person. So it would good to build up the numbers of people who take part.

All you have to do is sign up and on a monthly basis you will get chance to vote in a General Election.

So spread the word and it would be good to see it as the largest online poll in the UK

PREVIOUS VOTE YOUR GOAT MONTHLY GENERAL ELECTIONS

MAYS RESULT 
JUNES RESULT

Saturday 20 July 2013

UTTLESFORD - FELSTED COUNCIL BY ELECTION

UTTLESFORD - Felsted (Conservative disqualified)

2011 - Con 1204/1113, LD 320/314
2007 - Con 824/740, LD 585/554
2003 - LD 539/531, Con 336/298

Marie FELTON (Conservative Party Candidate)
Alan STANNARD (UK Independence Party (UKIP))
Antoinette WATTEBOT (Liberal Democrats)
Yad ZANGANAH (Labour Party Candidate)

25th JULY 2013

Ward map - ONS data
 

NORTH SOMERSET - Weston-Super-Mare North Worle COUNCIL BY ELECTION

NORTH SOMERSET - Weston-Super-Mare North Worle (Conservative resigned)

2011 - Con 1293/1183/1101, LD 686/671/609, Lab 600/596/559
Jun 2007 - Con 946/920/904, LD 513/498/494, Lab 268/234/218, Ind 157, UKIP 154 (postponed poll)
2003 - LD 1356/1236/1143, Con 627/610, Lab 268/248/243

Denise HUNT (Labour Party Candidate)
Edward KEATING (Liberal Democrats)
Rachel LING (Independent)
Derek MEAD (Independent)
Richard NIGHTINGALE (The Conservative Party Candidate)
Steven PEARSE-DANKER (UK Independence Party (UKIP))


25th JULY 2013

Ward map - ONS data


linklink

LAMBETH - TULSE HILL COUNCIL BY ELECTION

LAMBETH - Tulse Hill (Labour died)

2010 - Lab 3232/3186/3160, LD 1764/1748/1668, Grn 759/698/656, Con 608/556/503
2006 - Lab 1589/1528/1514, Grn 718, LD 582/432/374, Con 353/309/306
2002 - Lab 1219/1078/1017, Grn 440/333, LD 334/290/285, Con 225/215/184, SocAll 171

Amna AHMAD (Liberal Democrats)
Mary ATKINS (The Labour Party Candidate)
Bernard ATWELL (Green Party)
Timothy BRIGGS (Conservative Party Candidate)
Adam BUICK (The Socialist Party (GB))
Elizabeth JONES (UK Independence Party (UKIP))
Steve NALLY (Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition)
Valentine WALKER (Independent)

25th JULY 2013
 
Ward map - ONS data



KINGSTON-UPON-THAMES - Beverley COUNCIL BY ELECTION

KINGSTON-UPON-THAMES - Beverley (Liberal Democrat resigned)

2010 - LD 2138/2081/2044, Con 1738/1591/1530, Lab 657/566/474, Grn 581, CPA 158/139/139
2006 - LD 1398/1391/1385, Con 972/936/874, Grn 416, Lab 284/275/268, CPA 125/93/80
2002 - LD 1653/1632/1609, Con 945/939/889, Lab 249/236/218, CPA 117

Marian FREEDMAN (The Labour Party Candidate)
Lesley HEAP (Liberal Democrats)
Terence PATON (Conservative Party)
Chris WALKER (The Green Party)
Michael WATSON (UK Independence Party (UKIP))

25th JULY 2013

Ward map - ONS data
 

ELMBRIDGE - Weybridge South COUNCIL BY ELECTION

ELMBRIDGE - Weybridge South (Conservative resigned)

2012 - Con 638, LD 173, Lab 107
2010 - Con 1434, LD 649, Lab 152
2008 - Con 679, Ind 227, LD 192
2006 - Con 786, LD 271

Richard KNIGHT (The Conservative Party Candidate)
Ian LAKE (UKIP)
Gillian SOLWAY (Liberal Democrats)

25th JULY 2013

Ward map - ONS data
 

EAST NORTHAMPTONSHIRE - THRAPSTON MARKET COUNCIL BY ELECTION

EAST NORTHAMPTONSHIRE - Thrapston Market (Conservative resigned)

2011 - Con 754/586, Ind 604
2007 - Con x2 unopposed

Valerie CARTER (Independent)
Joseph GARNER (UKIP)
Alex IZYCKY (The Labour Party Candidate)
Alex SMITH (Conservative Party Candidate)

25th JULY 2013

Ward map - ONS data
 

BRAINTREE - BRAINTREE EAST COUNCIL BY ELECTION

BRAINTREE - Braintree East (Labour died)
Mar 2012 by - Lab 554, Con 388, UKIP 131, Grn 76, Ind 32
2011 - Lab 762/756/710, Con 759/691/668, Grn 297
Jun 2008 by - Con 668, Lab 406, Grn 125, LD 119
2007 - Lab 581/541/516, Con 546/507/483, UKIP 266, LD 247/244
2003 - Lab 597/531/502, Con 304, Ind 254/228, LD 219/216

Celia BURNE (Labour Party Candidate)
John MALAM (Green Party candidate)
Philip PALIJ (UK Independence Party (UKIP))
Jennifer SMITH (The Conservative Party Candidate)

25th JULY 2013


Ward mapONS data
BRAINTREE - Braintree Eastlinklink


Friday 19 July 2013

Latest list of council by elections and vacancies

MiddleEnglander has been busy collating

There are 7 by-elections in the last week of July, 18 during August and 2 already in September along with another 15 known vacancies where there is no date as yet for the by-election.

25th July - 7
Braintree DC, Braintree East - Labour died
East Northamptonshire DC, Thrapston Market - Conservative resigned
Elmbridge BC, Weybridge South - Conservative resigned
Kingston-upon-Thames LB, Beverley - Lib Dem resigned
Lambeth LB, Tulse Hill - Labour died
North Somerset UA, Weston-Super-Mare North Worle - Conservative resigned
Uttlesford DC, Felsted - Conservative disqualified for non attendance

1st August - 5
Amber Valley DC, Codnor & Waingroves - Labour died
Caerphilly BC, Penyrheol - Plaid Cymru died
Norfolk CC, Thetford West - UKIP resigned
Ribble Valley BC, Littlemoor - Conservative resigned
Worcestershire CC, St Mary's - UKIP died

8th August - 4
Merton LB, Colliers Wood - Labour died
Redcar & Cleveland UA, Skelton - Labour resigned
Swindon UA, Haydon Wick - Conservative died
Waveney DC, Oulton - Labour died

15th August - 4
Hartlepool UA, Manor House - Labour resigned
Torridge DC, Shebbear & Langtry - Conservative resigned
Walsall MB, Aldridge Central & South - Conservative died
West Berkshire UA, Hungerford - Conservative died

22nd August - 4
Doncaster MB, Askern Spa - Labour resigned following election as Mayor
Lincoln DC, Bracebridge - Conservative sitting as Independent disqualified
Scarborough DC, Newby - Independent resigned
Scarborough DC, Ramshill - Conservative resigned

29th August - 1
South Lakeland DC, Windermere Bowness North - Lib Dem resigned

5th September - 2
Boston BC, Fenside - English Democrat disqualified
Wycombe DC Hambleden Valley - Conservative died

Current known vacancies where by-election not yet called - 15
Carlisle BC, Yewdale - Labour died 30th May
Central Bedfordshire UA, Dunstable Northfields - Conservative died 25th June
Cornwall UA, Wadebridge East - Independent resigned 10th July
Daventry DC, Ravensthorpe - Conservative died 19th June
Dudley MB, Coseley East - Labour died 5th June
Forest of Dean DC, Coleford East - Labour died 19th June
Forest of Dean DC, Redmarley - Conservative died 1st July
Hertfordshire CC, Hitchin North - Labour died 8th July
Neath Port Talbot CB, Sandsfield East - Labour died 26th June
North Herts DC, Hitchen Houghton - Labour died 8th July
Northamptonshire CC, Middleton Cheney - Conservative died 19th June
North Yorkshire CC, South Selby - Conservative died 17th June
St Edmundsbury DC, Bardwell - Conservative died 28th June
St Helens MB, Billinge & Seneley - Labour resigned around 15th May
Tendring DC, Clacton St James - Conservative died 5th July

Impending vacancies - 2
Brent LB, Dudden Hill - Lib Dem councillor
Scottish Borders UA, Tweeddale West - Conservative councillor

THE NORTH / SOUTH DIVIDE IN POLITICS

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/wiyjvj6di9/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-180713.pdf


How a parliament would look if the North got its way

National Prediction: LAB majority 280

Party2010 Votes2010 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesPred Seats
CON36.97%30727.00%5174138
LAB29.66%25851.00%2070465
LIB23.56%5710.00%03522
UKIP3.17%08.00%000
NAT2.26%92.26%036
MIN0.89%10.89%111
OTH3.48%00.85%000

Edit current prediction, make new prediction, or go back to home page.


How a parliament would look if the South got its way

National Prediction: CON majority 172

Party2010 Votes2010 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesPred Seats
CON36.97%30743.00%1040411
LAB29.66%25825.00%569194
LIB23.56%5712.00%04017
UKIP3.17%013.00%000
NAT2.26%92.26%009
MIN0.89%10.89%001
OTH3.48%03.85%000

Edit current prediction, make new prediction, or go back to home page.



SOUTH CAMBRIDGESHIRE - SAWSTON BY ELECTION RESULT (CON GAIN)

South Cambridgeshire, Sawston - Conservative gain from Independent who did not contest the seat

Party  2013 votes     2013 share     since 2012     since 2011     since 2010     since 2008  
Conservative        477        46.8%     +11.8%       -17.7%      -15.6%          -1.9%
UKIP        233        22.9%from nowherefrom nowherefrom nowherefrom nowhere
Labour        199        19.5%        -3.7%       -15.9%      -18.0%from nowhere
Lib Dems        110        10.8%       +6.2%from nowherefrom nowherefrom nowhere
Independent

      -37.1%

       -51.3%      
Total votes     1,019
        -422      -1,145     -2,452        -437

Swing 0.9% Conservative to Labour since 2011 but 1.2% Labour to Conservative since 2010

Kevin CUFFLEY (The Conservative Party Candidate)
Michael KILPATRICK (Liberal Democrat)
Mike NETTLETON (Labour Party Candidate)
Elizabeth SMITH (UKIP)

FLINTSHIRE - CONNAH'S QUAY GOLFTYN BY ELECTION RESULT (LAB HOLD)

Flintshire, Connah's Quay Golftyn - Labour hold

Party  2013 votes     2013 share   since 2012 "top"since 2012 "average"since 2008 "top"since 2008 "average"
Labour         386        54.8%         -5.6%            -5.0%        +11.7%           +14.3%
Independent         285        40.4%        +0.8%           +0.2%         -16.5%            -19.1%
Conservative           34          4.8%  from nowhere     from nowhere  from nowhere     from nowhere
Total votes         705
         -259            -245           -251             -209

Swing around 3% Labour to Independent since 2012 but some 15% Independent to Labour since 2008

David CHAMBERLAIN-JONES (Welsh Conservative Party Candidate)
Andy DUNBOBBIN (Welsh Labour / Llafur Cymru)
Eric OWEN (Independent / Annibynnol)