Friday, 3 April 2015

Latest Live Prediction from Electoral Calculus

Current Prediction: Labour short 43 of majority

Party2010 Votes2010 SeatsPred VotesPred Seats
CON 37.0%307 33.9%279
LAB 29.7%258 32.4%283
LIB 23.6%57 9.3%16
UKIP 3.2%0 13.6%2
Green 1.0%1 5.2%1
SNP 1.7%6 3.8%48
PlaidC 0.6%3 0.6%3
Minor 3.4%0 1.2%0
N.Ire 18 18
Prediction based on opinion polls from 08 Mar 2015 to 02 Apr 2015, sampling 15,834 people.

Probability of possible outcomes

Labour majority
22%
Conservative majority
21%
Con/Nat coalition
15%
Lab/Nat coalition
14%
Lab choice of Lib/Nat
10%
Nat choice of Con/Lab
10%
Con choice of Lib/Nat
7%
No overall control
1%
The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election.

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