Latest Live Prediction from Electoral Calculus

Current Prediction: Labour short 43 of majority

Party	2010 Votes	2010 Seats	Pred Votes	Pred Seats
CON	37.0%	307	33.9%	279
LAB	29.7%	258	32.4%	283
LIB	23.6%	57	9.3%	16
UKIP	3.2%	0	13.6%	2
Green	1.0%	1	5.2%	1
SNP	1.7%	6	3.8%	48
PlaidC	0.6%	3	0.6%	3
Minor	3.4%	0	1.2%	0
N.Ire		18		18

Prediction based on opinion polls from 08 Mar 2015 to 02 Apr 2015, sampling 15,834 people.

Probability of possible outcomes

Labour majority	22%
Conservative majority	21%
Con/Nat coalition	15%
Lab/Nat coalition	14%
Lab choice of Lib/Nat	10%
Nat choice of Con/Lab	10%
Con choice of Lib/Nat	7%
No overall control	1%

The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election.