Wednesday, 1 April 2015

Latest UK General Election forecast by UK ELECT

Hung Parliament - Labour Lead (By 2) But Short By 49. SNP Forecast to have 47.

Labour are predicted to form the largest party by just two seats, and the Scottish National Party is again forecast to have the key role in deciding who will form the next UK government. Overall, the figure of 323 seats, the combined total for Labour + SNP MPs in this prediction, is reckoned by many pundits to be the minimum necessary to form a government if the two parties can come to an agreement.
This is the first forecast made using the new, improved, UK-Elect v9.4 method which takes account of even more factors than previously. Among the inputs taken into consideration by this forecast were: national opinion polls, regional opinion polls (for Scotland, Wales and London), the candidates standing in each seat and whether they were the incumbent, and if so, whether they won that seat for the first time at the previous election, by-elections, constituency opinion polls by Lord Ashcroft and others (adjusted according to how many days ago the fieldwork was done), and the change in the regional and national polls since the poll fieldwork or by-election.
The UK-Elect "adjust target percentages for date" option was also set for this forecast, adjusting the percentages to represent what we currently expect to happen on May 7th, rather than just using the current poll percentages as a target. This option has the affect of adjusting the input opinion poll percentages to take account of what happened in many past elections as the date of the election approached - i.e. that the support levels for the parties returned part-way towards their previous totals. In current circumstances this favours the Liberal Democrats slightly and disadvantages UKIP and the SNP.
Unlike the previous UK-Elect forecast this one does forecast seats for UKIP - two in fact. This is primarily a consequence of the enhancements made to the forecasting algorithms, together with the inclusion of more constituency poll data.
The GB percentages input for this forecast were Con 33%, Lab 33%, UKIP 14%, Lib Dem 8%, Green 6%. For Scotland the percentages used were SNP 45%, Lab 27%, Con 15%, Lib Dem 4%, UKIP 4%, Green 4%, for Wales the percentages used were Lab 39% Con 25%, UKIP 14%, Plaid Cymru 11%, Green 5%, Lib Dem 5%, and for London the percentages used were Lab 44%, Con 33%, UKIP 9%, Lib Dem 8%, Green 5% Other parties votes were not specifically set. Note that the final forecast percentages differ from the input percentages due to the methodology used (including adjusting for the number of days until the election) - e.g. the final UK target percentages used were Con 33.2%, Lab 32.74%, UKIP 13.28%, LD 8.99%, Green 5.67%.
UK-Elect special offer
Liberal Democrat28-28
Sinn Fein5-
Plaid Cymru3-
Labour Short By 49 - Hung Parliament
See UK-Elect Latest Forecast for the UK-Elect 'Latest Forecast' page.
UK-Elect Election Forecast Maps
Forecast for Eastern EnglandForecast for Scotland
Forecast for WalesForecast for UK
Forecast for LondonForecast Gains
Click on image to enlarge. See also more maps.

Additional UK-Elect generated maps and screenshots
Forecast LossesForecast 2nd PlaceUK - Coloured by most significant 'Swing To' percentage
Screenshot - start of a guided forecastScreenshot - Scottish constituenciesScreenshot - configuring gains
Hover cursor over map for more information, click on image to enlarge
For detailed results (top 3 in every constituency) see:
UK-Elect - Detailed Constituency Forecasts

No comments:

Post a Comment

Comment is open to all feel free to link to this blog.