Saturday, 4 April 2015

Monthly Westminster averages for Scotland post-referendum -

Thanks to ntyuk1707 for collating the information

monthly Westminster averages for Scotland post-referendum - 

Date UKIP Conservative Liberal Democrat Labour SNP Greens
Sept. 2014/Post-Referendum 4% 17% 6% 29% 38% 3%
Octo. 2014 4% 17% 6% 27% 42% 3%
Nove. 2014 4% 17% 6% 26% 41% 4%
Dece. 2014 5% 17% 7% 27% 40% 3%
Janu. 2015 4% 17% 5% 27% 42% 4%
Febu. 2015 4% 17% 6% 25% 43% 4%
Marc. 2015 4% 17% 6% 25% 43% 3%

Applying this data to electoral calculus' seat predictor would give -

SEATS UKIP Conservative Liberal Democrat Labour SNP Greens
Sept. 2014/Post-Referendum 0 2 1 20 36 0
Octo. 2014 0 3 1 13 42 0
Nove. 2014 0 3 1 13 42 0
Dece. 2014 0 3 1 16 39 0
Janu. 2015 0 3 1 13 42 0
Febu. 2015 0 1 1 11 46 0
Marc. 2015 0 1 1 11 46 0

Interesting thing to note here - Lord Ashcroft's opinion polls have been considerably out-of-line with opinion poll averages demonstrated below.

Lord Ashcroft average from Jan 1 2015 to now:
UKIP: 3%
Conservative: 16%
Liberal Democrat: 6%
Labour: 24%
SNP: 47%
Greens: 4%

All other polls average from Jan 1 2015 to now:
UKIP: 4% (+1)
Conservative: 17% (+1)
Liberal Democrat: 6% (=)
Labour: 26% (+2)
SNP: 42% (-5)
Greens: 3% (-1)

When this difference is applied to his constituency polls it would give the following results - 
Conservative: 2 (+2)
Labour: 5 (+4)
SNP: 17 (-6)

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