NEWARK BY ELECTION (BETTING ODDS / FORM / CANDIDATES)

 ***UPDATE 8.18am***

Farage won't be standing in Newark

Well things are moving fast as 2 candidates have been chosen already

for Conservatives and Labour

twitter.com/RobertJenrick

twitter.com/MichaelPayneUK

The bookies have the odds.

Conservatives 4/5
UKIP 2/1
Labour 4/1
Lib Dems 66/1

and Andyajs has done the form guide showing General Election 2010 versus CC elections 2013

I've done a few calculations using last year's local election results.

The boundaries of the CC divisions don’t match up tidily with the constituency, but these are basically the ones that comprise the Newark constituency:

Bassetlaw: Tuxford.
Newark & Sherwood: Balderton, Collingham, Farndon&Muskham, Newark East, Newark West, Southwell&Caunton.
Rushcliffe: Bingham.

Votes, Newark, 2013 CC elections:

Con: 10,750 (8/8 contested)
Lab: 5,153 (8/8)
UKIP: 3,520 (7/8)
LD: 3,028 (7/8)
Ind: 1,846 (2/8)

Total: 24,297


Percentages:

Con: 44.2%
Lab: 21.2%
UKIP: 14.5%
LD: 12.5%
Ind: 7.6%

Changes from the 2010 general election:

Con: -9.7%
Lab: -1.1%
UKIP: +10.7%
LD: -7.5%
Ind: +7.6%

Not completely accurate because a small portion (in terms of population) of the Radcliffe on Trent CC division is included in the Newark constituency, although most of it is in Rushcliffe. Also a small bit of Tuxford is in Bassetlaw.

2013 CC results:

docs.google.com/spreadsheet/lv?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dGxoSGFQaWg1V2tyYklHcXFkTm9LTXc&pli=1#gid=0

Let the fun begin