CHRIS HUHNES EASY PRISON LIFE

Chris Huhne who had to resign in disgrace for getting his wife to take his speeding points thus perverting the course of justice and lying for 8 years about it, is having an easy life of it in prison. For you or me we would have been left to rot with the druggies but here is an example of softly softly in action.

LINK TO ARTICLE

After just seven days in Wandsworth prison in south-west London Huhne, 58, was moved to HMP Leyhill, Gloucester, where there is no perimeter fence and convicts have keys to their own rooms.

Today he appeared relaxed as he was pictured walking past the aviary in the open prison’s 135 acre grounds.

The jail, which has previously been described as the “Savoy of slammers”, has three tennis courts, football and hockey pitches, a gym and fitness suite as well as ornamental gardens.

The prison’s canteen is stocked by fresh produce from the grounds, where inmates can do the gardening. Prisoners aged over 50 are also offered the chance to do “gentle” exercise such as pilates.

Huhne, a former Liberal Democrat environment secretary, was jailed for eight months in March after his former wife took speeding points on his behalf. He is likely to be released after serving just eight weeks

DAVID MILIBAND QUITS SUNDERLAND AS WELL NOW

You really couldn't make it up but as timing goes another twist to the tale. As Fascist Di Canio is made manager of Sunderland.

Labour MP David Miliband has resigned from his role on the board of Sunderland FC because of new manager Paolo Di Canio's "past political statements".

The former UK foreign secretary was serving as the club's vice-chairman and as a non-executive director.
Mr Miliband wished the club "all success in the future. It is a great institution that does a huge amount for the North East".

Possible Tory & Labour candidate for SOUTHSHIELDS

Article for Tory potential candidate

Coun Milburn is convinced there’s a chance to take the seat in a town which has never elected a Conservative MP, and which Labour holds with a majority of more than 11,000.
He said: “I think Miliband has left us in the lurch.
“And while there is the cost of a by-election to consider, it does mean there is a chance for people to vote for a change.”

Sorry only two hopes you have and one is named BOB

Article for Labours potential candidate

SOUTH Tyneside Council leader Coun Iain Malcolm is already being mentioned as a possible contender for David Miliband’s South Shields seat.

He may feel the time is right to leave town hall politics and step up to the national stage.
Mr Miliband’s decision to stand down to take up a job with the charity International Rescue in New York will spark a May by-election.
He retained the seat for a third stint as MP at the 2010 election, with a majority of 11,109.
But much of his time since he was beaten to the Labour leadership by brother Ed has been spent on non-Parliamentary and non-constituency business.
He has long faced criticism in South Tyneside for the fact he was ‘parachuted in’ to the safe Labour seat in 2001, when he succeeded Dr David Clark as the town’s MP.
As a councillor since 1988, Coun Malcolm would face no such criticism.

If Labour get the parachute out again and airdrop a luvvy or a unionite in I feel that could do for them here.

VOTERS THOUGHTS FROM SOUTHSHIELDS

CLICK HERE FOR THE ARTICLE from the South Shields Gazette headed WILL VOTERS SHUN LABOUR SOUTH SHIELDS BY ELECTION.

Was this designed as a rallying call for the Labour voters or is it a view that Labour might not be as safe a seat as they would hope?

UKIP gets a mention “UKIP appeal to me. I’m not a great Europhile, and I can see them as an option. They’re certainly on the up. And that’s a view coming from a person raised in a Labour household. My father, Tony Barrell, was a Labour councillor and the party doctrine was drummed into me from an early age.

It's almost as though it's saying you are not alone to want to vote UKIP even though you might have voted Labour all your life.

People also notice the way Labour just use the seat by this comment from the same person.
“But, I’m sad to say, Labour is not what it was. Just look at Dr David Clark, standing aside and becoming Lord Clark, to enable Tony Blair to put David Miliband into South Shields.”

another says 

“Labour has ruled this town for as long as I can remember, and what have they achieved?
“It’s hardly a ringing endorsement for their policy if you take a look about here. I think it’s time we had a change. We’ll see what the alternatives are, but I won’t be voting Labour again.”

It needs to be a local candidate

“I will be looking for a candidate who can work for the people of this town.”

“What I can say is that whoever I vote for must do something about this town centre – it’s appalling. 

“Apart from mobile phone shops, there’s nothing. Someone who can persuade me they can tackle that will have my support.”

All very interesting and showing it's not a dead cert for Labour, I do have a feeling an Independent could cause a stir as well as UKIP make a big entrance into town.

LATEST NEWS FROM SOUTHSHIELDS ODDS

Yesterday I posted on the predicted vote share for each of the main parties for the SOUTHSHIELDS by election as you will see here. CLICK HERE FOR SOUTHSHIELDS PREDICTED VOTE SHARE

Just been back to see if anything has changed and it was interesting to see that the prices haven't changed the betting stances are firmly of the view of three things.

100% bets for LABOUR to get under 52% so that figure should come down

100% bets for UKIP to get over 18% so that figure should go up

100% bets for TORIES to get under 10% so that figure should go down.

Its not an exact science but it certainly so shows sentiment on the subject. Will see tonight if the bookies have moved their tipping point percentage.

BREAKING DOWN THE YOUGOV POLL

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/5kpwn5nn8h/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-280313.pdf

It is a quiet evening so thought I would have a look at some statistical porn.

No Major changes but you can see why the parties have changed their stances on certain policies.

UKIP are taking 1 in 20 voters from Labour 1 in 10 voters from the Lib Dems and best of all 1 in 5 voters from the Tories. This is not even the best time for UKIP next year you have the lead upto the EURO elections which is kind of ironic that UKIP get their only to date major political voice from the institution they wish to leave. But all the same it is the time of the political cycle they do best and the figures already are looking good with a year to go for them to improve.

There also seems to be the stats where the older you get the less socialist you are it seems Labour really does fade off with each age. Is this from people who still look back and remember the 70s.

You also have the non voters which break down into 1 in 4 libdems from 2010 don't know or wont vote and one in seven tories are in the same boat. Now this is a lot of variables which could either strengthen Labour or propel UKIP or keep afloat the aspirations of the TORIES & LIBDEMS. Only 1 in 16 Labour voters from 2010 are in the same boat. So is Labour as good as they get and the others will catch them up?

We will see and half the fun is guessing and predicting and watching how this all unfolds.

LATEST YOUGOV POLL

CON 29%,
LAB 42%,
UKIP 13%
LD 11%,

Just found this before I have to go to work so not much commentary than that UKIP seemed to be holding firm and is exactly what the Tories need to draw level with Labour and might explain the change in policies from the parties.

SENSATIONAL UKIP WIN

A town council election saw the UKIP candidate come from no where to win the seat. I found a comprehensive article about the ward but as you will see it is split labour/conservative and ward itself had been strongly libdem. Such a comprehensive result is why the other parties are now so worried I would think.

UKIP GAIN!

Denis Allen UKIP 303 (46.25%) from no where
Margaret Malcolm Labour 151 (23%)
Ed Bird Conservative 108 (16.5%)
David Holloway Lib Dem 90 (13.75%)

Read more: http://vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/1545/elections-28th-march-2013?page=4#ixzz2Oum3egkQ

The Wellington town council by-election did fall below Listener’s sonar. UKIP have won a seat from the Conservatives, in what was a three-way marginal returning one town councilor from each major party at the last town council election. The Lib Dems won the borough seat in 2007 and 2011.

Here is some background to the by-election in the Dothill ward of Wellington Town Council in the unitary Borough of Telford and Wrekin.

Wellington Town Council comprises 21 members, elected from seven wards as follows – Arleston (3), College (3), Dothill (3), Ercall (3), Haygate (3), Park (3) and Shawbirch (3).

The town wards are coterminous with the borough wards of the same name.

The council strengths were:

Elections on 3 May 2007: Con 12, Lab 3, Lib Dem 3, Independent 3
Elections on 5 May 2011: Lab 8, Con 8, Lib Dem 3, Independent 2

The current town mayor is Labour and the deputy mayor is Independent. At the annual meeting on 8 May 2012, the Labour town mayor was elected unopposed, but the Independent deputy mayor (proposed by Lib Dem and seconded by Labour) defeated a Conservative candidate by 10 votes to 7.

The result in Dothill on 3 May 2007 was:
Lib Dem 590, Con 431/372/297, Lab 312
Elected: Lib Dem 1, Con 2

The result in Dothill on 5 May 2011 was:
Lib Dem 538, Con 401/253, Lab 363/297
Elected: Lib Dem 1, Con 1, Lab 1

Denis Allen (UKIP) gained the by-election in Dothill on 28 March 2013, following the death of Lesley Street (Con) on 29 December 2012. The result was UKIP 303, Lab 151, Con 108, Lib Dem 90.

The make-up of the town council is now Lab 8, Con 7, Lib Dem 3, Independent 2, UKIP 1.

The results in the Dothill ward of Telford and Wrekin Borough Council were as follows:

3 May 2007 – Lib Dem 521, Con 297, Lab 147

5 May 2011 – Lib Dem 404, Con 311, Lab 260

Read more: http://vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/1545/elections-28th-march-2013?page=4#ixzz2Oul1Caps

SOUTHSHIELDS PREDICTED VOTE SHARE

It is very early as the date hasn't been set and the candidate list not named but this is how the bookies market show the vote share so far.

LABOUR 52%
UKIP 18 %
CONSERVATIVES 10%
LIBDEMS less than 5%

still leaves 15% to play with

This is based on the above / below margins for vote percentage betting.

There is also a strong market for losing your deposit

CONSERVATIVES 7/2 was 9/2
LIB DEMS 5/6 so they say better than evens chance they will.

At least a months worth of speculation.

HAPPY DAYS!

BOOKIES ODDS FOR LOSING YOUR DEPOSIT IN SOUTHSHIELDS

 In the space of two hours this price s old news. TORIES NOW 7/2 to lose deposit and LIBDEMS are 5/6 Thanks to PADDYPOWER for setting up the market. Doesn't say much for TORIES is they can't make 5% of the vote down from 20% at last election. Might explain why it is being tweeted that TORIES should stand aside for UKIP.

Paddy Power Politics ‏@pppolitics 2h

@UKELECTIONS2015 Cons to lose deposit - just 9/2 currently! http://www.paddypower.com/bet/other-politics/uk-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=1212897 …

COULD AN INDEPENDENT WIN SOUTH SHIELDS?

 Could an Independent win or at least Challenge in South Shields. At local council level last year you can see they secured at least 20% of the vote.

Last years local election figures

Lab 11960 56.1%
Ind 4432 20.8%
Con 2118 9.9%
Prog 1420 6.7%
BNP 653 3.1%
Lib 617 2.9%
Grn 113 0.5%

First person who says he will stand

SOURCE

The first candidate to throw his hat into the ring to become the next MP for South Shields has emerged.
Former scaffolding boss John Robertson, 46, from Whitburn, says he will stand as an independent.
He received a 40-week suspended prison sentence in 2011 after smashing his lorry into the headquarters of South Tyneside Homes.
Mr Robertson caused almost £160,000 damage after driving his 22ft lorry into Strathmore House, at Jarrow’s Viking Industrial Estate, demolishing much of the building entrance.
He said: “I intend to campaign on issues such as special educational needs and support for the elderly.”

LATEST BOOKIES ODDS FOR SOUTH SHIELDS

Here is the latest odds from around the bookies for the South Shields By Election. We are still to have a date set for the election and we are still to have any confirmed candidates so these figures are really up in the air. It is interesting though to see how low a chance the coalition parties have when a media editor whom broke the story has a better chance of winning than the Tories or Lib Dems and he has denied he will stand at that.

LABOURS price varies between 1/40 to 1/20 so a 5% return on a £100 deposit you would go a long way to find that anywhere in the banking system and watching the news about Cyprus, your money is probably just as safe.

KEVIN MAGUIRE is 16/1 with LADBROKES He has denied that he will stand though.

UKIP is as low as 8/1 with William Hills had been 7/1 and up to 16/1 with Ladbrokes that has shortened from 20/1

CONSERVATIVES range between 40/1 to 50/1

BNP are only quoted with LADBROKES at 100/1 considering they saved the deposit last time I think this shows how far they have collapsed as a party

GREEN are 100/1 only with PADDY POWER will this be another election though without a GREEN candidate.

LIB DEMS 100/1 to 200/1 A coalition party in the same price range as candidate chancers which is a big fall for a party seen in the past as opposition to Labour in the North East

BANK HOLIDAY MONDAY 1983 GENERAL ELECTION RE RUN

I AM PLEASED TO HAVE FOUND THAT THE 1983 GENERAL ELECTION IS BEING RE RUN ON BANK HOLIDAY MONDAY. HAVE JUST CLEARED A LOT OF SPACE ON THE SKY PLUS BOX.


It was the election that saw a landslide victory for the Conservatives, and a collapse in the Labour party vote; now almost 30 years on, BBC Parliament re-broadcasts the entire BBC coverage of the 1983 election.
David Dimbleby hosts the BBC's General Election programme from Thursday 9th June 1983, with results analysis by Peter Snow and Tony King, commentary from the BBC's Political Editor John Cole, and interviews by Robin Day.
Throughout the course of the election, the pollsters had been certain that a Conservative victory was inevitable and that Margaret Thatcher would be returned to Downing Street for a second term as Prime Minister.
Much of the battle took place in the race to be second, with the Alliance Party - under its dual leadership of David Steel and "Prime Minister Designate" Roy Jenkins - attempting to "break the mould" of British politics and overtake Michael Foot's Labour party.
The programme includes live coverage of declarations across the country, including Nicholas Witchell in Margaret Thatcher's Finchley constituency, Brian Hanrahan from the Blaenau Gwent seat of Michael Foot and Kate Adie and Michael Cole following David Owen and David Steel in Plymouth Devonport and Ettrick Bridge.
Meanwhile the BBC's Esther Rantzen reports from the crowds gathered in Downing Street to watch the results come in.
The 1983 election programme will be re-broadcast from 10am - 9.10pm on Monday 1 April 2013.

LATEST YOUGOV SURVEY

Latest YouGov / The Sun results 26th March - CON 30%, LAB 39%, LD 13%, UKIP 12%; APP -35
See the full survey results

Result for the North so not specifically the North East like this survey http://ukgeneralelection2015.blogspot.co.uk/2013/03/the-full-opinium-poll-march-5th.html 
 But it does change the figures a lot
LABOUR 45% TORIES 26% UKIP 17% LIBDEMS 9% 

South Sheilds is going to be an interesting by election
 

UKIP ODDS SLASHED TO 7/1 TO WIN SOUTH SHIELDS

William Hill ‏@sharpeangle 8h

@UKELECTIONS2015 1/16 Lab; 7 UKIP; 50 Lib Dems; 200 Tories.

In a matter of hours of announcement UKIP had been quoted at 20/1 to win SOUTH SHIELDS

I got this tweet last night direct from William hills and the odds are slashed to 7/1

Should be a very interesting by election

THE FIRST BOOKIES ODDS FOR SOUTH SHIELDS BY ELECTION

South Shields By-election odds: 1/25 Lab, 20/1 UKIP, 50/1 Cons, 100/1 LD.

Just posted by LADBROKES

SOUTH SHIELDS BY ELECTION

It is being widely reported that David Miliband is to quit as being an MP for SOUTH SHIELDS. The by election is being muted to happen in May.

2012 local election results

2012 locals in South Shields

Beacon and Bents: Lab 43.48% Ind Khan 35.6% Con 6.72% Ind 5.71% BNP 4.77% Lib 1.94% Ind 1.79% Lab gain from Ind
Biddick and All Saints: Lab 67.4% Ind 17.85% BNP 6.01% Con 4.41% Lib 4.29%
Cleadon Park: Lab 45.89% Ind 44.71% Con 9.4%
Harton: Lab 59.53% Progressives 26.43% Con 9.96% Lib 4.08% Lab gain from Prog
Horsley Hill: Lab 53.28% Ind 36.31% Con 7.72% Lib 2.69% Lab gain from Ind
Simonside and Rekendyke: Lab 64.74% Lib 12.72 BNP 11.43% Con 11.1%
West Park: Lab 49.66 Progressives 34.35% Con 10.05% Green 5.94 Lab gain from Progr
Westoe: Lab 47.25 Ind 29.8 Con 12.36 Prog 7.7 Lib 2.89 Lab gain from Ind
Whitburn and Marsden: Lab 76.19 Con 23.81
Whiteleas: Lab 56.26 Ind 30.08 BNP 8.81 Ind 5.9 Con 2.95 Lab gain from Ind


2010 general election result

Name	Party	Votes	%	+/-
David Miliband	Labour	18,995	52.0	-8.8
Karen Allen	Conservative	7,886	21.6	+4.0
Stephen Psallidas	Liberal Democrat	5,189	14.2	-5.0
Donna Watson	British National Party	2,382	6.5	+6.5
Shirley Ford	Green	762	2.1	+2.1
Siamak Kaikavoosi	Independent	729	2.0	+2.0
Victor Thompson	Independent	316	0.9	+0.9
Sam Navabi	Independent	168	0.5	+0.5
Roger Nettleship	Fight for an Anti-War Government	91	0.2	+0.2
Majority		11,109	30.4
Turnout		36,518	57.7	+7.0

LATEST TNS BMRB POLL

SOURCE

Voting intentions poll shows CON 27% (+1), LAB 37% (-2), LD 10% (-3), UKIP 17% (+4), OTHER 10% (+2)
The budget appears to have had no immediate effect on Conservative party support; their projected share of the vote currently stands at 27%. Labour‘s lead over the Conservative party is 10%.
The level of UKIP support is now at the highest seen in a TNS BMRB poll (17%), giving them a seven point lead over the Liberal Democrats.

LATEST COMRES POLL

UKIP have achieved an all-time high telephone poll vote share of 14%, as the Conservatives and Labour lose support, according to a COMRES poll for The Independent.

• It shows Labour on 38 per cent (down five points on last month).
• The Conservatives on 28 per cent (down three points).
• UKIP on 14 per cent (up five points).
• The Liberal Democrats on 12 per cent (up four points).

• Almost one in five (18 per cent) of people who voted Conservative in 2010 say they would now support UKIP.

SOURCE

BOOKIES ODDS FOR CELEBRITY MPs

PADDY POWER HAS A BOOK OPEN FOR CELEBS TO STAND AND ODDS FOR BECOMING MPs

Hugh Grant 5/1 to stand 25/1 to win
JK Rowling 16/1 - 50/1
Rebekah Brooks 25/1 - 100/1
Sienna Miller 33/1 - 100/1
Steve Coogan 33/1 - 100/1

The only bet people have been having a punt on is Hugh Grant.

FIRST SIGNS OF THE SUN BACKING UKIP

http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/4857287/UKIP-economy-opinion-poll-win-over-the-Liberal-Democrats.html

I blogged only the other yesterday that the SUN was rumoured to be backing UKIP ( click here to see post ) Now you have the above story.

They could have said that 33% of the country back the Tories on the economy or that Labour has 26% of the support. What the SUN concentrated on is that 7% back UKIP over 4% for the Lib Dems.

It seems the SUN is backing UKIP why else would they spin the story the way they have.

Your thoughts?

PARTY POLITICAL WEBSITES POPULARITY CHART

I have set up a new page at the top named political pop charts. I will be doing a new one on the first of each month but just advertising the new page for now. The list is made up of information from ALEXA which ranks sites by hits.

It looks like it will be an interesting chart on the first. the BNP lose top slot and drop down to third. Labour go up two places to top and UKIP even though they get better figures stay at two. How will it look on the official chart next week?


EACH LINK IS CLICKABLE TO ALEXA.COM PAGE

UK RANKING

LABOUR  6,001
UKIP 6,333
BNP 7,392
CONSERVATIVES 13,640
LIB DEMS 14,514
GREEN PARTY 20,414
SNP 33,845
RESPECT 121,576
ENGLISH DEMOCRATS 137,728
SINN FEIN 197,188

GLOBAL RANKING AS NO UK RANKING

PLAID CYMRU 2,292,735
NHA PARTY 3,955,681
ALLIANCE PARTY  3,985,914
THE LOONY PARTY  5,462,115
JUSTICE 4 MEN & BOYS PARTY 5,580,745
ULSTER UNIONIST PARTY  11,090,988
TUSC 12,394,298
MEBYON KERNOW - THE PARTY OF CORNWALL 13,605,181
UK GENERAL ELECTION 2015 16,411,774
THE CHRISTIAN PARTY 22,782,270
WESSEX REGIONALISTS 25,374,589

UKIP DO THE YMCA

Young man theres no need to feel down..............

Just seen this from the TELEGRAPH http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/9950323/Ukip-celebrates-with-cheers-souvenirs-and-a-rallying-call-to-black-and-Asian-voters.html

Just first thing that came to mind when I saw the three photos of Mr Farage, Mr McKenzie & Diane James starting off the song.

LATEST OPINION POLLS

Opinium/Observer poll. Labour 38. Tories 28. Ukip 16. Lib Dems 9. 54% think Ed M will be next PM,

Just a snapshot at the moment but a good lead for Labour over the Tories and also for UKIP over Lib Dems.

Feel free to comment.

SUN NEWSPAPER TO BACK UKIP?

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/mar/22/will-sun-back-ukip-2015

From the above piece you will see a compelling argument that Murdochs flagship paper could come out in support of UKIP. Murdoch likes to back winners as it helps sell newspapers if he can be seen to be with what the people are feeling then all the better for his share price.

No one is feeling the love for the Tories and Murdoch I feel does not like RED ED so it leaves something that the masses are talking and thinking about which is change. If the Sun support UKIP then that would be a big change and would that act as a domino effect so that papers like the Daily Mail might follow suit? I think UKIP have more affinity with Mail readers than the Tories have these days.

This will all be very interesting.

Watch this space as they would say.

What are your thoughts? Feel free to comment.

Are the Tories winners if Scotland says YES

So the dates been set and the question figured out. But If Scotland says YES and thus become independent. I am guessing there will be no need for Scottish MPs in parliament. So this in itself would be very favourable to one party.

Results for the 2010 GENERAL ELECTION

41 LABOUR 11 LIBERAL DEMS 6 SNP and just one TORY

SO 69 LESS SEATS

AND 2010 RESULT WOULD HAVE BEEN

306 TORIES
217 LABOUR
46 LIB DEMS
22 OTHERS

A TORY MAJORITY OF 21 something they can only dream of now. No boundary commission needed just jettison SCOTLAND.

JUSTICE FOR MEN AND BOYS PARTY

It seems we will be getting a lot of parties setting up before the next General Election and here is another. You can find out more here http://j4mb.wordpress.com/

How long it will last I don't know but they did manage to get themselves onto RADIO5LIVE last night which drew it to my attention.

I think it will just fizzle out but I do agree with one thing, and that is the banning of all women shortlists. There should not be positive discrimination of any form you should be there on merit not to fulfil a quota.

UKIP SHOWING OPINION POLL IS NOT A BLIP

Runnymead DC: UKIP 336 (40% +17% on 2012), Con 318 (38% -9% on 2012), Lab 181 (22% n/c on 2012). UKIP gain

Council by election result from last night with a 13% swing to UKIP and no change for Labour so Tory voters are not going to Labour.

Also a close call in

Aldwick East

LibDem 383 - 33.6%
Con 357 - 31.3%
UKIP 339 - 29.7%
Lab 61 - 5.4%

 

Previous results

 

ARUN - Aldwick East (Conservative died)

2011 - Con 1310/1226, LD 320/302, UKIP 283, Ind 268, Lab 264
2007 - Con 1110/1001, Ind 695, UKIP 293, Lab 168/161
2003 - Con 890/872, LD 529/524, Lab 154/125

 

RUNNYMEDE - Foxhills (Conservative died)

2012 - Con 581, UKIP 284, Lab 274, LD 107
2011 - Con 993, UKIP 325, Lab 317, LD 155
2010 - Con 1587, LD 583, Lab 367, UKIP 305
2008 - Con 975, Lab 227, UKIP 187
2007 - Con 859, UKIP 195, LD 191, Lab 167
2006 - Con 819, Lab 230, LD 194, UKIP 165, SCP 115

FALKIRK BY ELECTION?

It has been a regular thing on twitter trying to predict the next by election. Sutton Coldfield because Pleb gate man is possibly off to Europe. Portsmouth South as the Lib Dem MP might have to resign due to allegations. Tonight we have reports on SKY saying Eric Joyce has been arrested for fighting.

Heres the result from 2010 SNP canvassers at the ready?

Name	Party	Votes	%	+/-
Eric Joyce	Labour	23,207	45.7	-5.1
John McNally	Scottish National Party	15,364	30.3	+8.9
Katie Mackie	Conservative	5,698	11.2	+1.3
Kieran Leach	Liberal Democrat	5,225	10.3	-5.7
Brian Goldie	UK Independence Party	1,283	2.5	+2.5
Majority		7,843	15.4
Turnout		50,777	62.0	+2.4

CON 27 (-3); LAB 40 (-2); LIB DEM 11 (+4); UKIP 13 (+4)

SOURCE

UKIP ahead of lib dems for 3rd month running and Farage only leader with positive rating.

And all the attacks from Labour against the Tories about the economy yet people still don't trust them.

Who would do best for the the economy
27% TORIES 26% LABOUR 8% LIB DEMS

MP SACKS CONSTITUENT

SOURCE

BBC though did change the headline from abuse on the front page to racism on the actual article.

But that aside it does make you laugh how the MP was faced with the real world which he is there to represent and defend and was intimidated. Should he be doing his job?

source

The MP, an Education Minister at the time, had to mingle with drug dealers and was asked if he could read or write or had mental health problems, an experience he said was ‘unsettling and intimidating’

 I am guessing that the MP should be more careful about what he writes in future. I notice he likes writing a lot according to THIS he has written 87 letters to his former boss Michael Gove. Not asking for his job back by the sounds of it either.

Here PLAY A LITTLE GAME WITH THE POLITICALLY CORRECT
Sums up the real problem with what has just happened not that someone complained about being called a gipsy but the actions of the police. Considering my other story (link) today on comments made by a Labour Peer about the Jewish community will there be the same level of enforcement? 
 

Labour peer Lord Ahmed suspended after blaming imprisonment on 'Jewish conspiracy

You do see a lot of blustering from Labour supporters and members etc. about how the tories are rubbish and they would be great. I just wonder what their spin on this person will be then. Kind of makes the Lib Dems latest position a walk in the park after you read some of this Lord's comments.

source

A Labour peer who blamed his imprisonment on a "Jewish conspiracy" was suspended by the party today.

Lord Ahmed, who was jailed in 2009 for dangerous driving after he was found to have been sending text messages before his car was involved in a fatal crash, claims that pressure was placed on the courts by Jews "who own newspapers and TV channels" to exact punishment more severe than the offence warranted.

He said that his "Jewish friends" were opposed to his visit to Gaza to support the Palestinian cause and that Jewish-owned media organisations pressured the courts because of this.

So will we see high profile Labour figures coming out and condemning this person?

This is what they have said so far and I am sure they will say we can't say any more until it is all investigated. (great smokescreen tactics) 

Following publication of the remarks in The Times today, a Labour spokesman said: "The Labour Party deplores and does not tolerate any sort of anti-Semitism. Following reports in The Times today we are suspending Lord Ahmed pending an investigation."

Will the Opposition run with this? It's an open goal....

THE JUSTICE PARTY

You do have to worry when the lead photo on this bloke facebook site is himself and Gerry Adams. Now some will say Mr Adams has brought peace to Northern Ireland. Much the same as a bully brings peace to a playground I guess by threats of violence to anyone who won't do what he wants I guess.

I am highlighting the peace party as I will any minor parties in the run up to the General Election.

Does ASHID KHAN have any connection with the PJP who had councillors in Birmingham around 7 years ago?

How come he is allowed to wander around news broadcasts with his placards? I am sure if I decided to do this I would have been shooed away.

THE FULL OPINIUM POLL MARCH 5TH

http://news.opinium.co.uk/sites/news.opinium.co.uk/files/VI_05_03_2013.pdf

Makes very interesting reading when you look at the vote share for the OVER 55's

LABOUR 31%
TORIES 28%
UKIP 24%

UKIP are also official opposition to Labour in the North EAST.

LABOUR 62%
UKIP 23%
TORIES 8%
LIB DEMS 3% thats only a percentage more than the BNP

It shows a great demise for the Lib Dems and also shows where the Tories want to win Labour votes the people are turning to UKIP

PORTSMOUTH SOUTH BY ELECTION?

Rumours abound that Mike Hancock is thought to have resigned. Chris Huhne left it till the last minute. There has been allegations made against him so has another Lib Dem jumped before being pushed? We will find out in the coming days.

Has it anything to do with this? http://www.portsmouth.co.uk/news/local/portsmouth-south-mp-mike-hancock-denies-sexual-assault-claims-1-4777389

But here is the result from 2010 general election

Name	Party	Votes	%	+/-
Mike Hancock	Liberal Democrat	18,921	45.9	+4.2
Flick Drummond	Conservative	13,721	33.3	-0.4
John Ferrett	Labour	5,640	13.7	-8.7
Christopher Martin	UK Independence Party	876	2.1	-0.2
Geoff Crompton	British National Party	873	2.1	+2.1
Tim Dawes	Green	716	1.7	+1.7
Ian DuCane	English Democrats	400	1.0	+1.0
Les Cummings	Justice & Anti-Corruption Party [The]	117	0.3	+0.3
Majority		5,200	12.6
Turnout		41,264	58.7	+1.3

LATEST PREDICTION FOR 2015 GENERAL ELECTION

UK General Election 2015

Predicted outcome:

		1 day	7 day
Labour Majority	42.34%
Hung Parliament	37.67%
Conservative Majority	19.53%
Other Party Majority	0.46%
Updates every hour. Last Updated: 09:00:56, Mon 11 March 2013

Percentage outcome based on the Betfair back price for each selection, compensating for the overround.
Any discrepancy between the total probability and 100% is due to rounding.

INTERESTING POLITICAL BETS

PADDYPOWER
British Politics Lib Dems To Poll 14% Before 2014 Betting Odds
 YES 4/7 NO 5/4
Hardly shows great enthusiasm for the lib dems when 14% is a target and it shows that 15% of the bets placed don't even think they will get 14%

LADBROKES
Next UK General Election UKIP Vote Percentage Betting Odds
0-5% 6/4     5-10% 6/4       10-15% 5/1       15-20% 16/1
The two most popular bets are 0-5 and 10-15 lets see how the market moves over the coming years.

VARIOUS  
Next UK General Election Most Seats Betting Odds
LABOUR longest odds 3/5  shortest odds 1/2
TORIES longest odds 7/4 shortest odds 5/4
LIB DEMS longest odds 150/1 shortest odds 100/1
UKIP longest odds150/1 shortest odds 80/1
Surprised to find places giving better prices on UKIP than Lib Dems seems the markets are following the latest polling info.

WILLIAM HILLS
Most popular bet for UKIP is for them to gain 2 or more seats at a price of 8/1 no other price has been bet on for seats/betting UKIP. To put this in context the Greens are 6/1 to get 2 seats with PADDYPOWER and they already have one at present. 20/1 bar.

LADBROKES
 Have a evens price that a MP will defect to UKIP. Which is extremely low and is almost saying it will happen.

Ken Clarke to fall asleep during Budget 16/1

 

Vince Cable to shake head in disagreement during Budget 20/1

Now that Vince Cable bet looks tasty............. 
 


 
 

Opinium fortnightly survey

Lab 39 (-2)
C 27 (-2)
UKIP 17 (+4)
L Dem 8 (no change)

When this is a regular trend then it would be interesting. But I still feel this would have been the cat roaming amongst the pigeons.

CURRENT BOOKMAKERS THOUGHTS ON THE NEXT ELECTION

 It seems to be stuck between a Labour a win and Hung parliament and the first time I have seen prices for a for UKIP. but all the same still long odds just put there to show willing I think. The one price I have always fancied is UKIP getting more votes than the Lib Dems though and think 3/1 a bargain price.


Labour Majority 5/4 
No Overall Majority 6/4
Conservative Majority 4/1
Liberal Democrat Majority 150/1
UKIP Majority 200/1  

THIS IS THE VIEW OF LADBROKES

 Number of Liberal Democrat seats

Bets will stand irrespective of boundary changes or seat reductions

• 0-10 12/1
• 11-20 5/1
• 21-30 4/1  
• 3/1 31-40

• 4/1 41-50
• 10/1 51-60
• 20/1 61-70
• 10/1 71+

UKIP to win a seat

• Yes 2/1
• No 1/3

Vote Share Match Bet

• Liberal Democrats 2/9
• UKIP 3/1

NEW ASHCROFT MEGAPOLL

CLICK HERE FOR THE MEGAPOLL

HEADLINE RATE

LABOUR 40%
TORIES 31%
UKIP 12%
LIB DEMS 9%

Note this was before the EASTLEIGH by election so could look even worse for the Lib Dem and Tories and even better for UKIP.

Look at the age ranges though.

Labour have 50% of the 18-34 year old vote. But will they vote? Is voting cool?

The over 65's whom are more likely to vote the share is much different.

TORIES 40% LABOUR 27% UKIP19% LIB DEMS 9%

And before you say the older folks are the more right wing they will vote the BNPs voting pattern is exactly the opposite there support tails off the older the voter.

with over 22,000 people surveyed it will be very interesting reading and look forward to any surveys like this for March/April

Could this be Labour's UKIP?

RESULT: Maltby Town Council

Joe Robinson, TUSC 303 - ELECTED
Jeanette Mallinder, Independent 201

3117 Electors

Just one little result and considering the meagre result in EASTLEIGH last month the TUSC are small fry. But for small acorns large acorns do grow. Not everyone loves Labour and if these go head to head with Labour will they split the socialist vote or at least drain some of it away. Be interesting to see over the coming years.

LINK TO TUSC ELECTION LEAFLET

On the plus side it is good to see someone so young getting involved also shows that the electorate are tired of Labour. Would have been interesting to see a straight fight between Labour and TUSC and see what happens.

MID ULSTER BY ELECTION RESULT

All the parties will take some heart from Mid Ulster, the by-election with one winner but no real losers.
Sinn Fein will take the win, albeit with a vote down by just over 5% for the new MP Francie Molloy. His predecessor Martin McGuinness blamed complacency in his party's voters because the media wrote off the challengers.
The unionist parties believe the controversial plan to stand aside and back an agreed candidate, in Nigel Lutton, worked - increasing the combined unionist vote to just over 34%.
Although he came third, the SDLP's Patsy McGlone succeeded in increasing his party's actual vote in a reduced overall poll.
And in the Alliance's first election since the flag row began, Eric Bullick increased its vote from 397 to 487.

source

Francis Joseph Molloy (SF) 17,462
David Thomas Nigel Lutton (Ind) 12,781
Patrick Joseph McGlone (SDLP) 6,478
Eric Herbert Anton Bullick (APNI) 487

PREVIOUS ELECTION RESULTS FOR MID ULSTER

2010 result SF 21239 DUP 5876 SDLP 5826 UCUNF 4509 TUV 2995 Alliance 397
2005 result SF 21641 DUP 10665 SDLP 7922 UUP 4853 Workers' 345
2001 result SF 25502 DUP 15549 SDLP 8376 Workers' 509
1997 result SF 20294 DUP 18411 SDLP 11205 Alliance 460 Workers' 238 Natural Law 61
(boundary changes)
1992 result DUP 23181 SDLP 16994 SF 10248 Alliance 1506 Labour and Trade Union 389 Workers' 285 Natural Law 164
1987 result DUP 23004 SDLP 13644 SF 12449 Alliance 1846 Workers' 1133
1986 by-election DUP 23695 SF 13998 SDLP 13021 Workers' 691
1983 result DUP 16174 SF 16096 SDLP 12044 UUP 7066 Alliance 1735 Workers' 766
1979 result UUUP 29249 SDLP 19266 IIP 12055 Alliance 3481 Republican Clubs 1414
Oct 1974 result Vanguard 30552 SDLP 25885 Republican Clubs 8091
Feb 1974 result Vanguard 26004 SDLP 19372 Ind. Socialist 16672 Pro-Assembly Unionist 4633
1970 result Unity 37739 UUP 31810 Ind 771 National Socialist 198
1969 by-election Unity 33648 UUP 29437
1966 result UUP 29728 Ind. Republican 27168
1964 result UUP 29715 Ind. Republican 22810 Labour 5053
1959 result UUP 33093 SF 14170
1956 by-election Ind. Unionist 28605 SF 24124 Anti-Partition 6421
1955 by-election SF 30392 UUP 29586
1955 result SF 29737 UUP 29477
1951 result Ind. Republican 33097 UUP 29701
1950 result Ind. Republican 33023 UUP 29721

36% OF VOTERS WOULD VOTE UKIP

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/03/05/uk-britain-ukip-poll-idUKBRE9240PF20130305

In a week full of good news for UKIP here is some more from the polling organisation YOUGOV.

MID ULSTER BY ELECTION RECORD

• Mid Ulster by-election, 1955
• Mid Ulster by-election, 1956
• Mid Ulster by-election, 1969
• Mid Ulster by-election, 1986
• Mid Ulster by-election, 2013

This is the fifth by election since the war so now holds the record for having the most by-elections since the war/

Rotherham has had 4 and South Belfast also has had 4

2015 GENERAL ELECTION PREDICTION

Latest from electoral calculus 

Since the last prediction it has Tories down by 13 seats, Labour up by 8 seats, Lib Dems up by 5  (which is a shock) Or do they think UKIP nicking Tory votes will stop Lib Dem losing seats?

Current Prediction: Labour majority 112

Party	2010 Votes	2010 Seats	Pred Votes	Pred Seats
CON	36.97%	307	29.45%	210
LAB	29.66%	258	41.71%	381
LIB	23.56%	57	9.64%	24
NAT	2.26%	9	3.54%	16
MIN	7.54%	19	15.66%	19

Prediction based on opinion polls from 08 Feb 13 to 28 Feb 13, sampling 6,741 people. 

source 

SHORT TERM 1% RETURN ON INVESTMENT

Mid Ulster By election tomorrow and you can get 1/100 on a SINN FEIN win with PADDY POWER.

Francie Molloy (Sinn Fein) 1/100

Nigel Lutton (Independent) 14/1

Patsy McGlone (SDLP) 50/1

Eric Bullick (Alliance) 200/1

You can find value in.

TURN OUT for MID ULSTER

Under 52.5% 5/6

52.5 or more% 5/6

Percentage of SINN FEIN vote

51% or less 11/8

51.01 to 54% 6/4

More than 54% 5/2

29% OF LABOUR VOTERS SAY MILLIBAND DOING A BAD JOB

The HEADLINE used is to just show that there is more than just the state of the parties below in the figures captured in recent polling.

LABOUR 42% TORIES 31% UKIP 11% LIB DEM 10% OTHER 6%

OTHER FACTS AND FIGURES FROM THE POLL

90% of Tory voters say Camerons is doing a good job.
Where as only 63% of Labour voters think Milliband is doing well and
only 45% of the Liberal voters think Clegg is doing a good job.

So it seems though it might not to Cameron that when it comes to political parties he has the most faithful support.

You can also see why UKIP is putting the jitters up the Tories, its not only the recent by election results but 17% of the UKIP support voted Tory in 2010 4% had voted Labour 5% had voted Lib Dems.

I think there is still a lot to play for though when you also have so many who wont vote don't know who to vote for. and when Milliband has 29% of his own supporters thinking he is doing a bad job It must be all to play for.


CLICK HERE FOR YOU GOV POLL

SUTTON COLDFIELD BY ELECTION ???

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/mar/03/andrew-mitchell-european-commissioner


Will Andrew Mitchell get the job before the next General Election. If so it will trigger a by election.

2010 result

Conservative Andrew Mitchell 27,303 54.0 +1.4
Labour Robert Pocock 10,298 20.4 -5.5
Liberal Democrat Richard Brighton 9,117 18.0 +1.4
BNP Robert Grierson 1,749 3.5 N/A
UKIP Edward Siddall-Jones 1,587 3.1 -1.8
Green Joe Rooney 535 1.1 N/A
Majority 17,005 33.6
Turnout 50,589 67.9 +5.2
Conservative hold Swing +3.4

WHERE UKIP WOULD HAVE MPS NOW

 If the European election votes had been transferred into General Election votes this is where UKIP would now have MPs.


2009.Hartlepool, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Stoke, Hull, Dudley, Plymouth, North Devon, Torridge, Torbay

www.parliament.uk/documents/commons/lib/research/rp2009/rp09-053.pdf
(at the end)

2004: Amber Valley, Ashfield, Boston, Erewash, Gedling, Mansfield, Oadby and Wigston, North West Leicestershire, Tendring, Caradon, Isles of Scilly, Kerrier, North Cornwall, North Devon, Plymouth, Restormel, Teignbridge, Torbay, West Devon, Torridge
www.parliament.uk/documents/commons/lib/research/rp2004/rp04-050.pdf

MID ULSTER BY ELECTION BETTING

Sinn Fein Assembly Member Francie Molloy, 1/100
independent Nigel Lutton, 14/1
Social Democratic and Labour Party’s Patsy McGlone 50/1
Eric Bullick of the cross-community Alliance Party.200/1

In stark contrast to the Eastleigh by election the by election for Mid Ulster is passing off almost unnoticed it happens next Thursday and will probably get no more than a side note on the news. Even though it has helped create a new party due to the fact of having one candidate for the unionists instead of one from each party.

Will report the result next Thursday but expect no surprise result.

MOST POPULAR POLITICAL WEBSITES IN THE UK

I plan to list the political parties by visitors and links ranked by Alexa at the begining of each month here is the first list.

party - ranking in the UK

BNP - 7,584
UKIP - 8,024
LABOUR - 8,890
CONSERVATIVES - 17,604
LIBERAL DEMOCRATS - 19,424
GREEN PARTY - 25,679
SCOTTISH NATIONAL PARTY - 57,086
RESPECT PARTY - 119,727
NHA PARTY - 120,844
ENGLISH DEMOCRATS - 138,876
PLAID CYMRU - 174,363
THE LOONY PARTY - 194,470
SINN FEIN - 199,455

Below only global rankings available

ALLIANCE PARTY - 3,159,227
ULSTER UNIONIST PARTY - 7,226,081
MEBYON KERNOW - THE PARTY OF CORNWALL - 17,349,067
UK GENERAL ELECTION 2015 BLOG - 24,327,419
WESSEX REGIONALISTS - 25,514,279
CHRISTIAN PARTY - NO DATA
TUSC - NO DATA

EASTLEIGH BY ELECTION RESULT

 Well cat firmly amongst the pigeons with this result.

Mike Thornton (Liberal Democrat) 13,342 (32.06%, -14.48%)
Diane James (UKIP) 11,571 (27.80%, +24.20%)
Maria Hutchings (Conservative) 10,559 (25.37%, -13.96%)
John O'Farrell (Labour) 4,088 (9.82%, +0.22%)
Danny Stupple (Independent) 768 (1.85%, +1.56%)
Dr Iain Maclennan (National Health Action Party) 392 (0.94%)
Ray Hall (Beer, Baccy and Crumpet Party) 235 (0.56%)
Kevin Milburn (Christian Party) 163 (0.39%)
Howling Laud Hope (Monster Raving Loony Party) 136 (0.33%)
Jim Duggan (Peace Party) 128 (0.31%)
David Bishop (Elvis Loves Pets) 72 (0.17%)
Michael Walters (English Democrats) 70 (0.17%, -0.30%)
Daz Procter (Trade Unionists and Socialists Against Cuts) 62 (0.15%)
Colin Bex (Wessex Regionalist) 30 (0.07%)