Saturday, 25 October 2014

SNP v LABOUR

https://yougov.co.uk/refer/HdvYK1txkm0PfdJX43_Iow/  <<< Follow the link if you would like to join the YOUGOV panel and have your opinions heard
Below is the yougov polls used POLL FROM 2012
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/ermwj0y6g0/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-221012.pdf 

POLL FROM 2013
 http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/h2jnnj33da/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-221013.pdf 

POLL FROM 2014
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/np2h1yezwx/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-221014.pdf

2015 UK Parliamentary Election Forecast

This report was generated on 24 October 2014 at 10:28. To read commentary on the election using these forecasts, follow Election4castUK on Twitter. If you would like to give us feedback on this forecast, please email us at

The model uses the Ashcroft constituency polls where available, plus smaller samples of polling data for every constituency, extracted from pooling many national-level polls. However, the model does not know whether your MP is beloved by constituents or embroiled in scandal, nor does it know whether Boris Johnson or Nigel Farage is standing in your constituency, let alone what the implications of that might be. Some of this might be picked up in the polls, but not all of it will be, and we do not have much polling data to go on when it comes to constituencies. In the aggregate, these aspects of constituency-specific competition tend to average out across parties, but they certainly matter in individual constituencies. Think of our seat-level projections as a baseline for what you might expect from past election results, geography and demography, plus a little bit of polling data.
Sortable table of predicted vote share for every party in every seat.
Sortable table of predicted probability of victory for every party in every seat.
The following tables focuses on potential seat gains and losses for each of the parties, including only those seats for which the probability of a change of control is estimated at over 10%. If the table is blank, there are currently no such seats.
Conservatives: Gains Losses
Labour: Gains Losses
Liberal Democrats: Gains Losses
SNP: Gains Losses
Plaid Cymru: Gains Losses
Greens: Gains Losses
UKIP: Gains

Party Lo Votes Hi Swing
Conservatives 29.0% 33.0% 37.2% -3.1%
Labour 27.1% 31.0% 35.0% 2.0%
Liberal Democrats 10.9% 14.0% 17.3% -9.0%
SNP 2.6% 3.2% 3.9% 1.5%
Plaid Cymru 0.3% 0.5% 0.7% -0.0%
Greens 1.7% 3.3% 5.1% 2.4%
UKIP 8.9% 11.7% 15.0% 8.6%
Other 1.8% 3.3% 5.2% -2.4%
Party Lo Seats Hi Swing
Conservatives 237 281 326 -25
Labour 257 300 340 42
Liberal Democrats 13 24 37 -33
SNP 13 21 29 15
Plaid Cymru 0 2 4 -1
Greens 0 0 1 -1
UKIP 1 3 6 3
Other 1 1 2 0
Seat-by-seat predictions based on the party predicted to be most likely to win each seat.

LATEST OPINIUM POLLING


UP COMING COUNCIL BY ELECTIONS

 Thanks to MiddleEnglander for collating the information.

There are 5 by-elections during the last week of October with 23 so far identified in November and 1 in December. There are a further 16 known vacancies where the election has as yet no date.

30th October - 5
Castle Point BC, Canvey Island East - Canvey Island Independent disqualified - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, Canvey Isle Ind, Ind
Neath Port Talbot UA, Sandfields East - Labour died - 3 candidates: Con, Lab, UKIP
North Ayrshire UA, North Coast - SNP died - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, SNP, UKIP, Ind
Telford & Wrekin UA, Iron Gorge - Labour died - 3 candidates: Con, Lab, UKIP, Ind
Telford & Wrekin UA, Newport West - Conservative resigned - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, UKIP, Ind

6th November - 2
Cornwall UA, Mevagissey - Labour resigned- 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, UKIP, Green
Rugby BC, Bilton - Conservative resigned - 7 Candidates: Con, Lab, LD, UKIP, Green, TUSAC, Ind

13th November - 7
Cambridge BC, Queen Edith's - Labour resigned - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green
Dartford BC, Brent - Conservative died - 3 candidates: Con, Lab, UKIP
Dartford BC, Littlebrook - Labour died - 3 candidates: Con, Lab, UKIP
Derbyshire CC, Alport & Derwent - Conservative resigned - 3 candidates: Con, Lab, UKIP
Mid Sussex DC, Bolney - Conservative resigned 3 candidates: Con, LD, UKIP
Wigan MB, Douglas - Labour resigned - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, UKIP, Green, Community Action
Wokingham UA, Bulmershe & Whitegates - Liberal Democrat sitting as Independent disqualified - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, UKIP, Green

20th November - 3
Medway UA, Peninsula - Conservative sitting as UKIP resigned - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, UKIP, Green
Stockport MB, Bramhall South & Woodford - Conservative resigned - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green
Swansea UA, Uplands - Labour resigned

27th November - 11
Aberdeenshire UA, Troup - Conservative died
East Yorkshire UA, Bridlington Central & Old Town - SDP died
East Yorkshire UA, Howdenshire - Conservative died
East Yorkshire UA Willerby & Kirk Ella - Conservative died
Hillingdon LB, Charville - Labour resigned
Melton DC, Asfordby - Labour died
Midlothian UA, Midlothian East - Labour sitting as Independent resigned
Orkney UA, Kirkwall West & Orphir - Independent resigned
Oxford BC, Blackbird Leys - Labour resigned
Oxford BC, Northfield Brook - Labour resigned
Oxfordshire CC, The Leys - Labour resigned

11th December - 1
Moray UA, Elgin City North - Labour resigned

Current known vacancies where by-election not yet called - 16
Argyll & Bute UA, South Kintyre - SNP resigned around 19th September
Aylesbury Vale DC, Gatehouse - Liberal Democrat resigned around 15th October
Aylesbury Vale DC, Southcourt - Labour resigned around 13th October
Halton BC, Kingsway - Labour died 9th October
High Peak DC, Limestone Peak - Conservative died around 15th September
Lichfield DC, St John's - Conservative died 14th September
Lincolnshire CC, Stamford North - Independent died 1st October
Mansfield DC, Netherfield - Mansfield Independent Forum died 27th May
Nottinghamshire CC, Ollerton - Labour died 22nd October
Rossendale BC, Longholme - Labour resigned around 23rd October
Rushcliffe DC, Manvers - Conservative died 26th September
South Oxfordshire DC, Goring- Conservative died 21st September
St Edmunsbury BC, Haverhill East - Conservative sitting as UKIP died 2nd October
Sunderland MB, Washington East - Labour resigned 13th October
Thurrock BC, Aveley & Uplands - UKIP died 24th September
Windsor & Maidenhead UA, Cox Green - Conservative resigned around 24th October

Friday, 24 October 2014

ROCHESTER & STROOD (STATEMENT OF PERSONS NOMINATED)

Statement of Persons Nominated

Mike BARKER (Independent)
Christoper JustQCharley CHALIS (Independent)
Hairy Knorm DAVIDSON (OMRLP)
Jayda Fransen (Britain First) [Will appear on the ballot as "Vote British!"
Stephen GOLDSBROUGH (Independent)
Clive GREGORY (Green) [Will appear on the ballot as "Green Party - Say No To Racism"]
Geoff JUBY (Liberal Democrat)
Naushabah Parveen KHAN (Labour Party)
Nick LONG (People Before Profit)
Dave OSBORN (Patriotic Socialist Party)
Mark RECKLESS (UK Independence Party (UKIP))
Charlotte ROSE (Independent)
Kelly TOLHURST (The Conservative Party Candidate)

Nice things said about our blog

I would like to thank Iain Dale for sharing our political pop chart. Better still and it is like getting a fantastic school report to take home to your parents. Our blog got marked as EXCELLENT!!!

Link to article

From Iains' article

"The excellent UK General Election 2015 blog informs us that, in September, UKIP’s was the most visited political party website, followed by the SNP, with the Conservatives in third place and the LibDems trailing back in sixth behind the Greens. It doesn’t mean a lot, but I just thought you’d like to know. Another sign of which way the political winds are blowing."

POPULUS POLLING

http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/OmOnline_Vote_24-10-2014_BPC.pdf

Link to data tables

Scotland (If opinion polls were right)

Below is a map designed by @UKElect if the recent opinion polls were converted into real votes. http://www.ukelect.co.uk/maps/ScotForecast22Oct2014.jpg 1
http://www.ukelect.co.uk/maps/ScotForecast22Oct2014.jpg

LINK TO ENLARGE THE MAP

#GE2015 Forecast 24 October 2014

Forecast b 141024
For the fourth straight week, the favourite has changed in our forecast. Having fallen behind Labour last week, the Tories have retaken a slight lead, with a 51% chance of winning the most seats to Labour’s 49%.
The chances of a hung parliament have dropped slightly since last week’s high of 57%, but it’s still a bit more likely than either party securing a majority, with a 55% chance.
The Tories have gained a point in our polling average, to 32%, while UKIP and the Lib Dems have lost a point each and Labour remains on 34% for the third week running.
As a result, our central forecast now has the Conservatives winning 34.6% of the vote to Labour’s 31.4%, enough to give David Cameron’s party just three seats more than Ed Miliband’s: 298 to 295. In that hung parliament scenario, the Tories would be 28 seats short of a majority – which is also the number of seats the Lib Dems are forecast to win.

Date of forecast: 24 October 2014
Days till the election: 195
Inputted current average poll shares
Con: 32%
Lab: 34%
LD: 8%
Others (inc. UKIP): 26%
– UKIP: 16%
Forecast Election Day Shares (with 95% Prediction Intervals)
Con: 34.7% (±6.9, i.e. 28% – 42%)
Lab: 31.4% (±5.2, i.e. 26% – 37%)
LD: 11.2% (±7.2, i.e. 4% – 18%)
Implied point estimate shares for:
– Others (inc. UKIP): 22.7%
– UKIP: 14.0%
Forecast Election Day Seats (with approximate 95% Prediction Intervals)
Con: 298 (223 – 382)
Lab: 295 (214 – 365)
LD: 28 (23 – 34)
(Prediction intervals assume LD & others shares at central forecast, Con & Lab shares vary as per prediction intervals)
Central forecast: Con largest party, but short of a majority by 28
Approximate probabilities of key outcomes
Con largest: 51%
… with a majority: 24%
Lab largest: 49%
… with a majority: 21%
Hung Parliament: 55%
… with Con largest: 28%
… with Lab largest: 27%
(probabilities may not sum due to rounding)