Sunday, 21 December 2014

Yougov (HIPSTER v VOTING)

https://yougov.co.uk/refer/HdvYK1txkm0PfdJX43_Iow/  <<< Follow the link if you would like to join the YOUGOV panel and have your opinions heard


A hipster can be defined as 'a person who follows the latest
trends and fashions, especially those regarded as being outside
the cultural mainstream'. Thinking about this, how much do you
like or dislike hipsters?
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/lq11vmhmca/Internal_London_Hipsters_141218_Website.pdf 

IAIN DALES #GE2015 PREDICTION

As Iain Dale puts together his prediction we will be collating the results here. with 3 counties done here is the current state of play.

CON 24 (-5) LAB 5 (+5) UKIP 2 (+1) LD 2 (-1)

Each link sets out Iains' prediction.

SUFFOLK
CON 4 (-2) LAB 2 (+2)

NORFOLK
CON 6 (-1) LAB 2 (+2) LD 1 (-1)

ESSEX
CON 14 (-2) UKIP 2 (+1) LAB 1 (+1) LD 1 (-)

All of the original posts can be found here http://www.iaindale.com/

#GE2015 Forecast (DEC 21st)

most recently on 21 December 2014 at 13:40. To read commentary on the election using these forecasts, follow Election4castUK on Twitter. If you would like to give us feedback on this forecast, please email us at

 
When reading our seat predictions, please keep in mind that our model may not know as much about your specific seat of interest as you do. The model knows how the general patterns of support across the UK have changed in constituencies with different kinds of political, geographic and demographic characteristics. The model uses the Ashcroft constituency polls where available, plus smaller samples of polling data for every constituency, extracted from pooling many national-level polls. However, the model does not know whether your MP is beloved by constituents or embroiled in scandal, nor does it know whether Boris Johnson or Nigel Farage is standing in your constituency, let alone what the implications of that might be. Some of this might be picked up in the polls, but not all of it will be, and we do not have much polling data to go on when it comes to constituencies. In the aggregate, these aspects of constituency-specific competition tend to average out across parties, but they certainly matter in individual constituencies. Think of our seat-level projections as a baseline for what you might expect from past election results, geography and demography, plus a little bit of polling data.
Sortable table of predicted vote share for every party in every seat.
Sortable table of predicted probability of victory for every party in every seat.
The following tables focuses on potential seat gains and losses for each of the parties, including only those seats for which the probability of a change of control is estimated at over 10%. If the table is blank, there are currently no such seats.
Conservatives: Gains Losses
Labour: Gains Losses
Liberal Democrats: Gains Losses
SNP: Gains Losses
Plaid Cymru: Gains Losses
Greens: Gains Losses
UKIP: Gains Losses
The following table provides the individual seat predictions, aggregated up to England, Scotland and Wales. Please note that these may not exactly match the totals in the main forecast table, as they are based on the individual seat forecasts..
  Con Lab LD SNP PC GRN UKIP Oth
England 274 233 22 0 0 1 2 1
Scotland 0 18 1 40 0 0 0 0
Wales 7 30 2 0 1 0 0 0
The following table provides the individual seat predictions (columns), aggregated by the party that won the seat at the 2010 general election (rows). Please note that these may not exactly match the totals in the main forecast table, as they are based on the individual seat forecasts..
  Con Lab LD SNP PC GRN UKIP Oth
2010 Con 269 34 0 1 0 0 2 0
2010 Lab 0 235 0 23 0 0 0 0
2010 LD 12 10 25 10 0 0 0 0
2010 SNP 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 0
2010 PC 0 2 0 0 1 0 0 0
2010 GRN 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
2010 UKIP 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2010 Oth 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
Party Lo Seats Hi Swing
Labour 244 286 332 28
Conservatives 232 278 319 -28
SNP 24 35 46 29
Liberal Democrats 17 26 36 -31
DUP 6 8 10 0
UKIP 1 3 7 3
SDLP 1 3 3 0
Plaid Cymru 1 2 4 -1
Greens 1 1 2 0
Other 7 8 10 0
Seat-by-seat predictions based on the party predicted to be most likely to win each seat.

GREENS OUT POLL LIBDEMS ALL LAST WEEK

 https://yougov.co.uk/refer/HdvYK1txkm0PfdJX43_Iow/  <<< Follow the link if you would like to join the YOUGOV panel and have your opinions heard

We have been highlighting for a while that The Green Party is ahead of the LibDems and the three links below lead to the stats with the first libdems v greens showing how the Green Party have out stated the LibDems in 10 to 3 with 1 tied. This week is the first time that the Green Party has consistently out polled the LibDems all this week.

GREEN PARTY AVERAGE 7%
LIBDEMS AVERAGE 6% 

YOUGOV (LIBDEMS v THE GREENS) 

YOUGOV (Labour lead at 5% as young greens surge)

YOUGOV (18-24 YEAR OLDS) LOTS OF GREEN BUDS

Also below you will see how the Green Party have a much busier website than the LibDems

Link to political pop charts

YOU BET IT WON'T BE A MERRY CHRISTMAS FOR POLITICIANS


 Written by Graham Sharpe

DAVID CAMERON is Prime Minister this Christmas - but will he retain that role until next Christmas? In fact, what are the chances that all four of the current major Party leaders - Messrs Cameron, Clegg, Farage and Miliband will still be leading their Parties next Christmas?

William Hill think that Mr Cameron will do well still to be PM on Xmas Day 2015, and offer 4/9 that he has stood down before then. And Hills are offering 25/1 that all four current major Party leaders - Cameron, Clegg, Farage, Miliband - will have managed to remain in charge when Santa turns up next year. 'None of the current Leaders can be too certain that they will hang on to their position for the whole of 2015' said Hill's spokesman Graham Sharpe.'For example,we make Ukip 4/11 to poll more votes than the Lib Dems, which would make Mr Clegg's position somewhat tenuous.'

Hills also think voters may have had to go to the polls TWICE before next Christmas Day, offering 8/1 that there will be two 2015 General Elections. 'We make it a 2/5 chance that the first General Election of the year produces no overall majority for any on Party - and if that is the case there is every chance of a minority or coalition government falling apart very quickly' added Sharpe.

WILLIAM HILL have cut their odds about Labour forming the next government despite not having an overall majority. 'We have had to cut our odds for a Labour minority government from an original 7/1 to 4/1 in the face of continued support, perhaps on the basis of them forging an agreement or understanding with the SNP' said Hill's spokesman Graham Sharpe. 'We have taken a number of three figure bets for such an eventuality, including one of £200 from a new client based in Derbyshire.'

Alex Salmond, who is 1/8 favourite to become an MP by winning the Gordon constituency, has hinted that the SNP may be willing to help out a Labour government - and Hill are offering 13/2 that they will form a coalition government with them and 6/1 that Alex Salmond will become a government Minister following the General Election.

GENERAL ELECTION...2/5 No overall majority; 7/2 Con-LD coalition; 4/1 Labour overall majority; 4/1 Labour minority government; 9/2 Cons overall majority; 9/2 Lab-LD coalition; 6/1 Coalition involving Ukip; 13/2 Coalition involving SNP; 7/1 Cons minority govt; 40/1 Coalition involving Greens; 50/1 Ukip overall majority; 500/1 LD Overall majority.

The talkers or the doers who has the busier website?

Each month we rank all the political partys by how busy their websites are you can find the results here then at the beginning of each month we share with you TEADS official list of most influential blogs which can be found here

So between the partys (doers) and political bloggers / summarizers (talkers) which we have highlighted in bold, who has the busiest websites?

each link is to the ALEXA page for the party not the parties website/bloGger ALEXA RANKING EXPLAINED 

GUIDO FAWKES (ORDER-ORDER) 1,461
WINGS OVER SCOTLAND 1,910
LABOUR 2,978
UKIP 3,787
SNP 5,278
CONSERVATIVES 5,658
POLITICAL BETTING 6,224
THE GREEN PARTY 6,895
CONSERVATIVE HOME (TORY DIARY)  10,471
POLITICAL SCRAPBOOK 12,075
LIBERAL DEMOCRATS 16,085
LABOUR LIST 17,001
LEFT FOOT FORWARD 19,015
TOMS PRIDE  28,773
LIBDEM VOICE 37,112
UK GENERAL ELECTION 2015 BLOG 44,484 
JUSTICE 4 MEN & BOYS 48,495
SCOTTISH SOCIALIST PARTY 51,732
PIRATE PARTY 56,159
THE SCOTTISH GREEN PARTY 59,272
LEFT UNITY 70,387
DPAC 76,145
IAIN DALE.COM  78,658
DEMOCRATIC UNIONIST PARTY 92,283
PLAID CYMRU 93,325
OMRLP 107,186
TUV 123,850

DECEMBERS POLITICAL POP CHART

Using ALEXA below is how the different party political websites rank against each other

Last months rankings in brackets, each link is to the ALEXA page for the party not the parties website ALEXA RANKING EXPLAINED


1 (4) LABOUR 2,978
2 (2) UKIP 3,787
3 (3) SNP 5,278
4 (1) CONSERVATIVES 5,658
5 (5) THE GREEN PARTY 6,895
6 (6) LIBERAL DEMOCRATS 16,085
7 (7) JUSTICE 4 MEN & BOYS 48,495
8 (9) SCOTTISH SOCIALIST PARTY 51,732
9 (11) PIRATE PARTY 56,159
10 (8) THE SCOTTISH GREEN PARTY 59,272
11 (12) LEFT UNITY 70,387
12 (-) DEMOCRATIC UNIONIST PARTY 92,283
13 (-) PLAID CYMRU 93,325
14 (-) OMRLP 107,186
15 (-) TUV 123,850

UK GENERAL ELECTION 2015 BLOG 44,484

GLOBAL RANKING

SINN FEIN 474,896 (EIRE 3,431)
RESPECT PARTY 1,866,623
NHA PARTY 2,199,274
THE LIBERAL PARTY 4,885,870
THE ALLIANCE PARTY 5,142,406
SOCIALIST LABOUR PARTY 5,407,149
CHRISTIAN PARTY 5,647,345
PATRIOTIC SOCIALIST PARTY 6,282,236
TUSC 7,588,317
ENGLISH DEMOCRAT 9,179,293
YORKSHIRE FIRST  9,356,536
WESSEX REGIONALISTS 10,096,065
NATIONAL LIBERAL PARTY 13,882,614
AN INDEPENDENCE FROM EUROPE PARTY 15,317,119
MEBYON KERNOW 19,223,391
ULSTER UNIONIST PARTY 27,786,732

NO DATA

NONE OF THE ABOVE
SCOTTISH DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE
THE PEACE PARTY
NI21

FOLLOW THIS LINK FOR PAST POLITICAL POP CHARTS AND CYBER WARRIORS CHARTS

Friday, 19 December 2014

YOUGOV (Labour lead at 5% as young greens surge)

https://yougov.co.uk/refer/HdvYK1txkm0PfdJX43_Iow/  <<< Follow the link if you would like to join the YOUGOV panel and have your opinions heard

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/6s63ripmxv/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-181214.pdf 

Moderate Tory cheer and a fright for Labour in my final marginals poll of 2014

By
Two types of constituencies feature in my last round of marginals polling for 2014. First, the next tranche of seats the Conservatives are defending from Labour; second, a selection of seats where Labour may be under threat from UKIP. I have also returned to the solitary Green constituency, Brighton Pavilion.
In previous rounds I have said I wanted to find the point in the Conservative-Labour battleground at which seats consistently stay blue and the damage stops. Well, it has not stopped yet, though I suspect Labour will be disappointed not to be inflicting more of it.
In the last few weeks I have polled 1,000 voters in each of the eight seats with Tory majorities over Labour of between 7.1% and 8.5%. On the basis of this snapshot, four of the eight would stay in Conservative hands – Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire, Elmet & Rothwell, Harrow East, Pendle, and Warwick & Leamington (each with swings to Labour of 2.5% or below) – and a fifth, South Swindon, would be a tie. Labour would gain Stevenage with a 5% swing and Ealing Central & Acton with a 7% swing.
UKIP scored between 6% (Ealing Central & Acton) and 20% (South Swindon). In every case the party scored slightly lower when people were asked to think about their own constituency than when asked the initial standard question of which party they would vote for in an election tomorrow. Of those who said they would vote UKIP in the standard question, 8% said they would vote Conservative when it came to their own constituency, 5% said Labour and 5% said they did not know what they would do. Fourteen per cent of 2010 Tories who named UKIP in the first question said they would vote Conservative again when asked about their own seat.
The findings suggest some room for movement as the campaign develops. Only just over half (52%) of Conservative defectors to UKIP, and only 60% of Lib Dem defectors to Labour, ruled out returning to their 2010 parties at the next election.
Nearly one third (32%) of voters in these seats said they were satisfied with the job David Cameron was doing as PM, with a further three in ten saying they were dissatisfied but preferred him to Ed Miliband. Only 26%, including 60% of Labour voters, said they would rather see Miliband in Number Ten. Nearly seven in ten UKIP voters (69%), including 87% of Conservative defectors to UKIP, said they preferred Cameron.
Overall in these seats the Conservatives look slightly ahead in the ground war, though reported contact rates from the parties vary widely between seats. The numbers saying they had had literature, direct mail, phone calls, emails or personal visits from the Conservatives ranged from 13% to 48%, with between 11% and 28% saying they had heard from Labour.
On the Labour-UKIP battleground I looked at four constituencies in which, according to the Fabian Society’s Revolt On The Left report, Labour are at “critical” or “high” risk of a direct challenge from UKIP: Great Grimsby, Dudley North, Plymouth Moor View and Rother Valley.
I found Labour ahead – just – in all four of these seats. But if the Labour Party is worried about them, it has good reason to be. In three of the seats I found UKIP ahead by up to six points on the standard voting intention question, and they were tied with Labour in Dudley. It was only when people were asked how they would vote in their own constituency that Labour’s lead reasserted itself: six points in Rother Valley, five points in Plymouth Moor View, three points in Dudley North and one point in Great Grimsby. In the seats as a whole the swing to UKIP was 13.5%.
More than one fifth (22%) of 2010 Labour voters said they would support UKIP when asked who they would vote for in an election tomorrow, as did 31% of 2010 Tories and 30% of 2010 Lib Dems. When asked how they would vote in their own constituency, fractionally more Tories said they would switch (32%) which the proportions defecting from Labour and the Lib Dems declined to 19% and 25% respectively. Of those naming UKIP in the first question, 2% named the Conservatives in the “own constituency” question, 6% named Labour and 4% said they didn’t know what they would do.
Labour can thank Lib Dem defectors that they are managing cling on in these seats. Of those naming a party, only 27% of 2010 Lib Dem voters said they would vote the same way at the next election; 28% said they would vote Labour. However, only around two thirds (63%) of Lib Dem defectors to Labour ruled out returning to their former party next May.
These tight results open the possibilities for tactical voting. These polls have shown that UKIP have built up momentum in these seats and that they, not the Tories, are the principal challengers to Labour. How many Conservative voters in these constituencies will consider lending their votes to UKIP having seen that Labour can be beaten locally for the first time in decades?
UKIP voters were the most pessimistic about the economy, both for the country as a whole and for themselves and their families – indeed they were the only group among whom less than half thought things would go well for them personally over the next year.
In these seats the ground campaign looks quite even, if not exactly intense: 15% of voters said they had heard locally from Labour, and 14% from UKIP.
In the unique constituency of Brighton Pavilion, I found the Green Party ten points ahead, with a four-point swing from Labour. Curiously, a higher proportion of voters here said they would prefer Miliband as PM (45%), and that they wanted to see a Labour government (43%) than in any of the seats where Labour are actually ahead.
Again, the ground campaign looks closely fought, with 27% saying they had heard locally from the Greens and 26% saying they had heard from Labour.
Where does this leave our overall assessment of the battleground? Regular readers will recall that the Magic Number – the difference between the number of Conservative and Labour seats in the House of Commons, and therefore the combined number of net Tory losses and net Labour gains needed for the parties to have the same number of MPs after the next election – is 46.
In the Lib Dem-held seats I have polled so far, I have found the Conservatives ahead in ten and Labour ahead in nine. However, that small advantage on the Lib Dem battleground is cancelled out by the fact that I found the Tories behind to UKIP in Thurrock. The lack of any net advantage elsewhere means the Conservatives can afford to lose no more than 23 seats to Labour if they are to remain the largest party.
Unfortunately for the Tories my constituency polls have so far found Labour ahead in 39. However, some of the margins look very slim, not just over the Tories but over UKIP. Moreover, we have not yet looked in detail at Scottish constituencies, which could potentially change the equation dramatically. My fieldwork north of the border will begin in the New Year.