Thursday, 24 April 2014

STATEMENT OF PARTIES NOMINATED FOR THE UK EUROPEAN ELECTIONS 2014

THE ELECTIONS WILL BE HELD ON MAY 22ND 2014

AND THE UK IS SPLIT INTO 12 REGIONS.

CLICK ON REGION LINK TO GO TO A PAGE WITH INFORMATION ABOUT THAT REGION. AND LINKS FOR THE STATEMENT OF PERSONS NOMINATED INFORMATION

EAST OF ENGLAND
10 PARTIES NOMINATED

EAST MIDLANDS
9 PARTIES NOMINATED

LONDON
17 PARTIES NOMINATED

NORTH EAST ENGLAND
8 PARTIES NOMINATED

NORTH WEST ENGLAND
11 PARTIES NOMINATED

NORTHERN IRELAND
10 PARTIES NOMINATED 

SCOTLAND
9 PARTIES NOMINATED


SOUTH EAST ENGLAND
15 PARTIES NOMINATED

SOUTH WEST ENGLAND
8 PARTIES NOMINATED 

WALES
11 PARTIES NOMINATED 

WEST MIDLANDS
11 PARTIES NOMINATED

YORKSHIRE & THE HUMBER
10 PARTIES NOMINATED

Council areas where the returning officers for Euro regions are based:

East Midlands: Kettering
Eastern: Chelmsford
London: Lewisham
North East: Sunderland
North West: Manchester
South East: Southampton
South West: Poole
West Midlands: Birmingham
Yorkshire and Humber: Leeds
Scotland: Falkirk
Wales: Pembrokeshire

YOUGOV POLL BREAKDOWN, REGIONAL VOTING V WHO'D MAKE BEST PM?

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/beetm8yboc/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-230414.pdf

Wednesday, 23 April 2014

BBC allocation criteria for PEBs ahead of European and local elections, May 2014




England
European Elections
Threshold Criterion
Political parties which are standing a full (1) list of candidates in each and every region in England will qualify for a minimum of ONE broadcast in England. 
Additional Criterion
Political parties which meet the threshold criterion will qualify for additional PEBs if they can demonstrate substantial levels of past and/or current electoral support across England.
Local Elections
Threshold Criterion
All parties standing candidates in a minimum of ONE SIXTH of the seats being contested will qualify for a single broadcast in England in addition to any European broadcasts.
Additional Criterion
No additional PEBs will be offered for the local elections.

Scotland
European Elections only
Threshold Criterion
Political parties which are standing a full (2) list of candidates in Scotland will qualify for a minimum of ONE broadcast in Scotland.
Additional Criterion
Political parties which meet the threshold criterion will qualify for additional PEBs if they can demonstrate substantial levels of past and/or current electoral support across Scotland.

Wales
European Elections only
Threshold Criterion
Political parties which are standing a full (3) list of candidates in Wales will qualify for a minimum of ONE broadcast in Wales.
Additional Criterion
Political parties which meet the threshold criterion will qualify for additional PEBs if they can demonstrate substantial levels of past and/or current electoral support across Wales.

Northern Ireland
European Elections
Nb. For the purposes of the European election Northern Ireland is a single three member constituency.  MEPs are elected through the STV (Single Transferable Vote).
Threshold Criterion
Political parties which are standing at least one candidate for the European Parliament and which have current representation in the European Parliament, the House of Commons, or the Northern Ireland Assembly will qualify for a minimum of ONE broadcast in Northern Ireland.
Additional Criterion
Political parties which meet the threshold criterion may qualify for additional PEBs if they can demonstrate substantial levels of past and/or current electoral support across Northern Ireland. 
Local Elections
Threshold Criterion
All parties standing candidates in a minimum of ONE SIXTH of the seats being contested will qualify for a single broadcast in Northern Ireland in addition to any European broadcasts.
Additional Criterion
No additional PEBs will be offered for the local elections.
The provisional allocation of all PEBs is subject to review and amendment until after the confirmation of nominations. 
(1) A party may be deemed to be standing a full list if it is clear that it intended to stand a full list but at a late stage failed to do so, for example, because a candidate had to withdraw.
(2) See above
(3) See Footnote1above.

LATEST YOUGOV POLLING


http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/zvvptj27x4/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-220414.pdf

Tuesday, 22 April 2014

List of 554 TUSC candidates for Mays local elections

Below is the link for the list of candidates which will be standing for the TUSC in May's local council elections

http://www.tusc.org.uk/txt/295.pdf

and below is an interview as Dave Nellist says that the TUSC will be the 6th largest when it comes to the May Council elections.




Latest populus polling, young v old voters

http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Online_VI_22-04-2014_BPC.pdf

Mapping out the UK General Election 2015

Found this great blog with a insight into the next election thru the power of maps. read more at  http://election-data.blogspot.co.uk/   or follow on twitter

Find below part of an article from the above blog

I want to use this post to examine the political map in the 2015 UK general election in much the same way. The aim of this post is NOT to get into long drawn-out discussions about which seats are already in the bag for any of the political parties. I know I will get some respondents disagreeing with my methods. I know that many of you will likely have different criterion on which you judge a seat to be 'safe'. If you want to get into a debate about what is or isn't a 'safe' seat this is the wrong place to do so. Rather I want to show how the UK is not that different from its cousins across the pond. We too have our 'goat seats'. We too have zones and areas of the country where it would be cost-effective for the campaigns to avoid.

So, let's make a start. I am going to start by listing the seats where the same winning party has polled over 50% in the last four general elections. So, for example in Aberavon Labour have polled 51.9, 60.1, 63.1, and 71.3 per cent in the last four elections, each time securing winning margins of at least 35%. Similarly in Hampshire North East the Conservatives have polled 60.6, 53.1, 53.2 and 50.9 per cent in the last four elections, each time securing winning margins of at least 28%. There are 52 such constituencies in the United Kingdom, with a population of over 5 million and an area of 4,791 square kilometres. Half of these seats are in London or the North West and are predominantly Labour-dominated. In fact only seven of the 52 are not currently dominated by Labour. The map below shows their distribution.



Next I took those seats which the same winning party has secured majorities of over 20% in each of the last four elections. This added another 51 seats to the 52 we already have. So now there are 103 seats with large majorities and/or massive vote share for a single party. These 103 seats account for almost 10 million people in seats with an area of 19,937 square kilometres. This is an area roughly the size of Wales, with a population greater than the cities of London, Birmingham, Manchester and Glasgow combined. The map is shown below:


I did the same for those seats with consistent 15%+ winning majorities for a single party from at least the last three elections, and included those which have only had two elections due to new parliamentary boundaries. This further shrinks the map. There are now 215 constituencies which have established consistent large majorities, large enough to be outside the reasonable expectation of a seat changing hands. These 215 constituencies comprise 20,576,440 people, around a third of the population. These constituencies take up an area of almost 70,000 square kilometres. The map is shown below:


The final stage was to use my own judgement in selecting those seats where one could reasonably expect a particular party to win. In doing this I used those seats my own models are projecting to be a very high probability of success for a particular party. These judgement calls are clearly personal, and in the weeks and months to come I expect to reveal some of the methods I use here. However, I have purposely being very conservative in these choices on this occasion and set my models up likewise. This further shrinks the map, although I must say here that I would personally 'call' a number of seats not included based on my experience and the numbers. That said, even with a conservative setting, the map now shows 351 seats where it is reasonable to assume the result is known in 2015.

These 351 seats have a population of 33,881,216 people with a land area of 114,919 square kilometres. This is an area equal to the whole of England excluding the East Midlands, over half of the population. The map is shown below:


I know many of you will challenge both my methods and assumptions. But this post is intended to display the geography of political priorities and to underline how, for many people, politics is simply not worth the effort. In future posts I will further analyse the geographical distribution of the target seats of all the main parties, together with the efficacy of campaign spending. For now it's enough to simply present the numbers.

Monday, 21 April 2014

PPC's The latest most up to date list for 2015 UK General Elections

Link for...
PROSPECTIVE PARLIAMENTARY CANDIDATE SELECTIONS FOR 2015 GENERAL ELECTION

The list has been updated and as such, is as up to date as we know, follow the link above if you would like to know who has been chosen as PPC

360 LABOUR
211 CONSERVATIVE
140 LIBERAL DEMOCRATS
90 UKIP
26 THE GREEN PARTY
25 PLAID CYMRU
18 CLASS WAR PARTY
2 MEBYON KERNOW
2 JUSTICE 4 MEN & BOYS PARTY
1 HEALTH CONCERN
1 TUSC
1 SDLP
1 PIRATE PARTY
1 NHA PARTY

Your help with links for PPC websites would be gratefully received.

Feel free to leave a comment with the information.

Latest ICM Euro poll for Scotland


http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/poll-says-scots-more-likely-to-vote-yes-if-they-think-the-torys-will-win-th.1398070214
People in Scotland are more likely to vote for independence if they think the Conservatives will win the next UK general election, a poll suggests.
But the prospect of a Labour government would see a surge in support for the union, with more voters rejecting independence, the ICM poll found.
ICM recorded the highest overall support for independence since last August at 48% excluding "don't knows", results reported in the Scotland on Sunday revealed.
If the Tories look like winning the 2015 general election the Yes campaign could be on the cusp of victory at 49% excluding undecided voters, according to further ICM results published today by sister paper The Scotsman.
The party, which has one MP in Scotland, could also lose its only Scottish MEP to Eurosceptic party Ukip at the European elections next month, the poll suggests.
Overall, ICM found 39% in support of independence with 42% against and 19% undecided.
The prospect of a Tory government would see a two per cent swing from undecided to boost Yes to 41% while the No vote remains unchanged.
The prospect of a Labour government would see support for independence fall to 36%, support for the union surge to 44% and leave 20% undecided.
Support for Ukip is on the rise and they are on the verge of becoming Scotland's third most popular party in the European Parliament, according to ICM voting intentions.
The SNP remains the most popular party at 37%, although support is down 4% on last month, with Labour holding fairly steady in second place at 28%.
Tory support has dropped two points to 11% while support for Ukip is up four points to 10%.
Lib Dem support was two points up at 7% while the Greens remained unchanged at 4%.
ICM interviewed an online sample of 1,004 Scottish adults aged 16+ on 14-16 April 2014.