Monday, 26 January 2015

This is the number of MPs ending their careers with each Parliament (by-elections included):

Thanks to mick745

2005-2010 - 240 (a few of these are likely to be returned in 2015, so this number will change)
2001-2005 - 138
1997-2001 - 113
1992-1997 - 257
1987-1992 - 147
1983-1987 - 137
1979-1983 - 153
1974o-1979 - 141
1974f-1974o - 40
1970-1974f - 137
1966-1970 - 166
1964-1966 - 82
1959-1964 - 176
1955-1959 - 148
1951-1955 - 107
1950-1951 - 67
1945-1950 - 200
1935-1945 - 496

The number of 'first time' MPs beginning their careers with each parliament (by-elections included):

2010-2015 - 245
2005-2010 - 132
2001-2005 - 98
1997-2001 - 256
1992-1997 - 145
1987-1992 - 143
1983-1987 - 166
1979-1983 - 130
1974o-1979 - 62
1974f-1974o - 108
1970-1974f - 162
1966-1970 - 113
1964-1966 - 135
1959-1964 - 153
1955-1959 - 114
1951-1955 - 87
1950-1951 - 139
1945-1950 - 388

List of MPS

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1bkK5snG9zWu-TF2CTSlXga1V5xQGE5CcSs-9ynjr-Ik/edit#gid=699015985

Retreads

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1u-wFm6qCYpkT_VOejafnR75ipDtRSwBoKN4q99WetBs/edit#gid=159856529

MPs leaving at dissolution

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ZloKKTnr1XMRxD0Qp82kQ1kyUwHHK4ZBv-uaUrqcFK4/edit#gid=1664846591

Sunday, 25 January 2015

YOUGOV (voting intention V doing well at their job)

https://yougov.co.uk/refer/HdvYK1txkm0PfdJX43_Iow/  <<< Follow the link if you would like to join the YOUGOV panel and have your opinions heard

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/xup8o3b873/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-230115.pdf 

The Psephological Society #GE2015 Forecast

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10RLXcjEC53skefzikBQ9GC9CzMMqDdGisXxPzQ02ayM/edit#gid=0

More great work from Andy and polls done by swanarcadian

218 seats now have polls. Gains and losses using latest numbers (compared to 2010 GE):

Con: 7 gains, 36 losses. Net -29.
Lab: 42 gains, 16 losses. Net +26.
LD: 0 gains, 22 losses. Net -22.
UKIP: 4 gains, 0 losses. Net +4.
SNP: 21 gains, 0 losses. Net +21.

Seats in HoC using these changes:

Lab: 284
Con: 277
LD: 35
SNP: 27
UKIP: 4
PC: 3
Green: 1
Spkr: 1
NI: 18

Saturday, 24 January 2015

How much is a political party website worth?

Just for fun I thought I would put the party websites thru this tool http://generalelectionuk.blogspot.co.uk.cutestat.com/

Just to see the results.

They are as useful as any tool like this is, and as with anything in life a objects worth is only worth what someone would pay for it.

Here all the same is the results.

Link takes you to the tool page for that party not the party website

UKIP $107,280
CONSERVATIVES $64,200
LABOUR $61,200
SNP $52,800
GREEN PARTY $46,200
LIB DEMS $14,580

And how much for this blog?

$480

UK POLLING REPORT (UNIFORM SWING PROJECTION) #GE2015

274 325 23 10 18
Hung Parliament. Labour short by 1


The standard method of translating shares of the vote into seats is to use a uniform swing calculation. This means that the national change in vote share for each party is applied to each individual seat to see how that would effect the result, and then these theoretical results in each seat are totted up to produce a projection for House of Commons.
This is a crude measure and can result in some illogical and impossible projections – for example, if a poll showed Labour support dropping by 13%, as one poll did during Summer 2008, then a uniform swing calculation using those figures would project Labour getting less than zero votes in 48 seats. This is clearly nonsense. Such projections also ignore any regional variations, tactical considerations or variations due to incumbency effects of new MPs or MPs standing down. Despite all these drawbacks, it normally does a reasonably good job and, given that it is a straight extrapolation of current voting figures it is at least accepted as a fair projection that is not at the whim of individual guesswork or assumptions.
For the avoidance of doubt, since some point find this difficult to understand even when I’ve explained it carefully to them, this is NOT my prediction of what will happen at the election. It is a uniform swing projection based on the current average of the polls.

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/ukpr-projection-2 

Cameron Still Odds On To Debate

Despite the continuing confusion over the format of the televised political leader debates on the run up to the General Election, William Hill still believe David Cameron will end up taking part in at least one multi-Party (four or more) leader tv debate - and offer odds of 1/ 2 that he will do so - and 6/4 that he will not.

'We believe that some kind of compromise will eventually allow David Cameron to take his place in a multi Party leader tv debate' said Hill's spokesman Graham Sharpe.

Further information.....graham sharpe....0780 3233702

#GE2015 Forecast by Election Forecast (Jan 23)

most recently on 23 January 2015 at 16:55. To read commentary on the election using these forecasts, follow Election4castUK on Twitter. If you would like to give us feedback on this forecast, please email us at

 
When reading our seat predictions, please keep in mind that our model may not know as much about your specific seat of interest as you do. The model knows how the general patterns of support across the UK have changed in constituencies with different kinds of political, geographic and demographic characteristics. The model uses the Ashcroft constituency polls where available, plus smaller samples of polling data for every constituency, extracted from pooling many national-level polls. However, the model does not know whether your MP is beloved by constituents or embroiled in scandal, nor does it know whether Boris Johnson or Nigel Farage is standing in your constituency, let alone what the implications of that might be. Some of this might be picked up in the polls, but not all of it will be, and we do not have much polling data to go on when it comes to constituencies. In the aggregate, these aspects of constituency-specific competition tend to average out across parties, but they certainly matter in individual constituencies. Think of our seat-level projections as a baseline for what you might expect from past election results, geography and demography, plus a little bit of polling data.
Sortable table of predicted vote share for every party in every seat.
Sortable table of predicted probability of victory for every party in every seat.
The following tables focuses on potential seat gains and losses for each of the parties, including only those seats for which the probability of a change of control is estimated at over 10%. If the table is blank, there are currently no such seats.
Conservatives: Gains Losses
Labour: Gains Losses
Liberal Democrats: Gains Losses
SNP: Gains Losses
Plaid Cymru: Gains Losses
Greens: Gains Losses
UKIP: Gains Losses
The following table provides the individual seat predictions, aggregated up to England, Scotland and Wales. Please note that these may not exactly match the totals in the main forecast table, as they are based on the individual seat forecasts..
  Con Lab LD SNP PC GRN UKIP Oth
England 274 230 25 0 0 1 2 1
Scotland 1 24 0 34 0 0 0 0
Wales 7 30 2 0 1 0 0 0
The following table provides the individual seat predictions (columns), aggregated by the party that won the seat at the 2010 general election (rows). Please note that these may not exactly match the totals in the main forecast table, as they are based on the individual seat forecasts..
  Con Lab LD SNP PC GRN UKIP Oth
2010 Con 272 32 0 0 0 0 2 0
2010 Lab 0 240 0 18 0 0 0 0
2010 LD 10 10 27 10 0 0 0 0
2010 SNP 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 0
2010 PC 0 2 0 0 1 0 0 0
2010 GRN 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
2010 UKIP 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2010 Oth 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1  
Party Lo Seats Hi Swing
Labour 245 286 329 28
Conservatives 234 278 319 -28
SNP 24 34 44 28
Liberal Democrats 19 28 39 -29
DUP 6 8 10 0
UKIP 1 3 6 3
SDLP 1 3 3 -1
Plaid Cymru 1 1 3 -2
Greens 1 1 2 0
Other 7 8 10 1
Seat-by-seat predictions based on the party predicted to be most likely to win each seat.

#GE2015 Forecast from Elections ETC

Forecast main 150123
Labour and the Tories remain just a point apart in our polling average: 33% to 32%. The Lib Dems are down 1 to 8%, while UKIP gain a point to 15%.
But, with more polls showing the SNP leading by a big margin in Scotland, the main change from last week is an increase in the number of votes and seats we expect them to win. Our central forecast now has the SNP taking 43% of the vote in Scotland to Labour’s 29% – up from 40-29 last week – and winning 41 seats, up from 36.
That dents Labour’s (already low) chances of a majority, from 9% last week to just 6% now. The Tories are still clear favourites to win the most votes (we give them a 71% chance), but only very slight favourites to win the most seats (with a 53% chance), and their chances of securing a majority are still just 12%. The chances of a Hung Parliament are, therefore, up from 79% to 83%.
So it’s an improved forecast for the SNP and a slightly worse one for both Labour and the Lib Dems. That makes it more likely that Labour (plus, if necessary, the minor left-wing parties) have to rely on the SNP for a majority. Our model puts the chances of that combination (without the Lib Dems) at 20%, up from 12% last week.

Date of forecast: 23 January 2015
Days till the election: 104
Inputted current average poll shares
Con: 32%
Lab: 33%
LD: 8%
UKIP: 15%
Others: 12%
Forecast GB Vote Shares (with 95% Prediction Intervals)
Con: 33.9% (±5, i.e. 29% – 39%)
Lab: 31.2% (±5, i.e. 26% – 36%)
LD: 10.4% (±5, i.e. 6% – 15%)
UKIP: 13.6% (±5, i.e. 9% – 18%)
Others: 10.9% (±2, i.e. 9% – 13%)
Forecast Scotland Vote Shares (with 95% Prediction Intervals)
SNP: 43% (±5, i.e. 38% – 48%)
Labour: 29% (±5, i.e. 24% – 34%)
Forecast GB Seats (with 95% Prediction Intervals)
Con: 283 (233 – 339)
Lab: 278 (224 – 324)
LD: 23 (13 – 38)
SNP: 41 (26 – 51)
PC: 3
UKIP: 3
Grn: 1
(May not sum to 632 due to rounding of sums of probabilities. Prediction intervals not yet available for UKIP, PC and Grn.)
Central forecast: Con largest party, but short of a majority by 40
(Criterion for majority now changed to 323 not 326, assuming Sinn Fein win 5 seats and do not take them.)
Probabilities of key outcomes
Con largest: 53%
Lab largest: 47%
Hung Parliament: 83%
… with Con largest: 41%
… with Lab largest: 42%
Probabilities of predicted government outcomes:
(See here for explanations and assumptions)
Con majority: 12%
Con+NDown: 1%
Con+ND+DUP: 6%
Con+ND+LD: 9%
… with Con+ND+DUP also possible: 6%
… without Con+ND+DUP also possible: 3%
Con+ND+DUP+UKIP: 0%
Lab majority: 6%
Left (Lab+SDLP+PC+Grn): 3%
Left+LD: 24%
… with LD as kingmakers: 0.5%
… without LD as kingmakers: 23.5%
Left+SNP: 44%
… with Left+LD also possible: 24%
… without Left+LD possible: 20%
Left+SNP+LD: 25%
… with LD as kingmakers: 24%
… without LD as kingmakers: 1%
LD kingmakers: 24%
With a choice between Con+ND+DUP(+UKIP)+LD or
…Lab+SDLP+PC+Grn+LD: 0.5%
…Lab+SDLP+PC+Grn+SNP+LD: 24%
(Probabilities may not sum due to rounding)

Friday, 23 January 2015

2nd Anniversary Blog Poll * RESULT *

Firstly, we must thank everyone for taking part in our 2nd Anniversary poll compared to our 1st Anniversary poll link to result we have had 948 votes this time around in 24 hours, where as last time it took us 3 days to get 647 votes. So we got 46.5% more votes in a third of the time. You did not disappoint.

Now for the result, Victory for the Class War Party. They had come 7th in last years poll and take Labours crown this year.

Now this poll is just for fun. we are an election site and we deal with numbers and stats so what else could we do but run a poll for our anniversary. Unfortunately we don't have the funds to stretch to doing a commissioned poll through a polling firm (unless one would like to donate one for next year. hint! hint!) So we do the next best thing which is an internet straw poll.

All partys had equal basis, all were informed and it was their choice whether to promote it or not. We had as good an anti cheat feature as we could get but it won't stop those who may wish to. (not suggesting there was any)

So when a voter has such a wide range of partys what do they choose?

Main stream (GREEN,UKIP,CONSERVATIVE,LABOUR,SNP,LIBDEM,PC)
or NON Main stream.

in our 1st poll it was split 339 votes for the main stream out of 647 equals 52.4%
this time around 567 votes for the main stream out of 948 equals 59.8%

We did lose two big vote haulers from last years poll J4MB had no votes and they had polled well last time and the TUSC had also not polled as well as they did last time. Mainly due to neither promoting as much as they did last year. But these you could say were ably made up for by the Class War Party, None of the above (which is now defunct) and Al Murrays FUKP even with those 3 promoting the NON main stream vote share went down.

When only looking at the Main party's and their votes only this is how the vote share was for them (difference from 1st anniversary poll)

Greens 138 - 24.3% (+1.3%)
UKIP 120 - 21.2% (-4.1%)
Labour 114 - 20.1% (-7.6%)
Conservatives 86 - 15.1% (+5.1%)
SNP 58 - 10.2% (+7.8%)
LibDems 41 - 7.2% (-1.6%)
Plaid Cymru 10 - 1.9% (+0.9%)

Who would you want to vote for in the General Election?
GREEN PARTY 15% (138)
UKIP 13% (120)
CONSERVATIVES 9% (86)
LABOUR 12% (114)
SCOTTISH NATIONAL PARTY 6% (58)
LIBERAL DEMOCRATS 4% (41)
JUSTICE 4 MEN & BOYS 0% (0)
LEFT UNITY 1% (9)
SCOTTISH SOCIALIST PARTY 0% (2)
PIRATE PARTY 0% (3)
SCOTTISH GREEN PARTY 0% (3)
SINN FEIN 0% (1)
NHA PARTY 2% (16)
RESPECT PARTY 0% (2)
THE DUP 0% (0)
TUV 0% (1)
PLAID CYMRU 1% (10)
OFFICIAL MONSTER RAVING LOONY PARTY 1% (11)
THE LIBERAL PARTY 0% (1)
TUSC 0% (3)
PATRIOTIC SOCIALIST PARTY 1% (10)
SOCIALIST LABOUR PARTY 0% (3)
ULSTER UNIONIST PARTY 0% (0)
YORKSHIRE FIRST 0% (2)
ALLIANCE PARTY 0% (0)
MEBYON KERNOW 0% (1)
NATIONAL LIBERAL PARTY 0% (0)
NI21 0% (0)
CHRISTIAN PARTY 0% (3)
NONE OF THE ABOVE 4% (40)
AN INDEPEENDENCE FROM EUROPE PARTY 0% (0)
BEER, BACCY AND CRUMPET PARTY 0% (1)
ELVIS LOVES PETS 0% (0)
WESSEX REGIONALISTS 0% (1)
ENGLISH DEMOCRATS 0% (1)
THE PEACE PARTY 0% (1)
SCOTTISH DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE 0% (0)
THE CLASS WAR PARTY 20% (191)
FUKP (AL MURRAY) 8% (75)