Monday, 20 October 2014

2015 UK Parliamentary Election Forecast (20th OCT)

This report was generated on 20 October 2014 at 12:27. To read commentary on the election using these forecasts, follow Election4castUK on Twitter. If you would like to give us feedback on this forecast, please email us at

The following tables focuses on potential seat gains and losses for each of the parties, including only those seats for which the probability of a change of control is estimated at over 10%. If the table is blank, there are currently no such seats.
Conservatives: Gains Losses
Labour: Gains Losses
Liberal Democrats: Gains Losses
SNP: Gains Losses
Plaid Cymru: Gains Losses
Greens: Gains Losses
UKIP: Gains

Our current prediction is that there will be no overall majority, but that Labour will be the largest party with 306 seats. However, based on the historical relationships between the sources of information we are using in our forecast and the outcome of UK elections, we know there is substantial uncertainty in our forecast. The sidebar at right includes predictive probabilities of the key outcomes of the election, as well as vote and seat forecasts for each party with 90% uncertainty intervals.
  • And now the party forecast...
    • Conservatives. Fading slightly over the past fortnight. Seat loss very likely. Majority very unlikely. Plurality unlikely.
    • Labour. Holding steady. Seat gain almost certain. Majority unlikely. Plurality probable.
    • Liberal Democrats. Holding steady. Seat loss almost certain.
    • SNP. Holding steady. Seat gain almost certain.
    • Plaid Cymru. Holding steady. Seat loss probable.
    • Greens. Holding steady. Seat loss probable.
    • UKIP. Rising. Seat gain almost certain.

Party Lo Seats Hi Swing
Conservatives 232 275 318 -31
Labour 264 306 347 48
Liberal Democrats 14 26 39 -31
SNP 12 19 28 13
Plaid Cymru 0 2 4 -1
Greens 0 0 1 -1
UKIP 1 3 6 3
Other 1 1 2 0
Seat-by-seat predictions based on the party predicted to be most likely to win each seat.

Lord Ashcroft Poll


Ashcroft National Poll: Con 28%, Lab 31%, Lib Dem 7%, UKIP 18%, Green 8%


By
Labour lead by three points in this week’s Ashcroft National Poll, conducted over the past weekend. There is little movement in the main parties shares: the Conservatives are unchanged on 28%, with Labour (31%), the Liberal Democrats (7%) and UKIP (18%) each down a point since last week. The Greens are up three points at 8%, their highest level yet in the ANP.
As in previous weeks, we find Labour’s lead in the ANP similar to that in other recent surveys, but a lower combined vote share for the two main parties than that found by other pollsters.
In other questions, I found people more optimistic about their own economic prospects than about those of the country. Nearly two thirds (64%) said they expected the economy to do well for them over the next year, compared to 58% thinking things would go well for Britain as a whole. UKIP voters were the most pessimistic, but swing voters (who say they don’t know how they will vote or may change their minds) were more optimistic than average.
More than twice as many people said they and their families were worse off now than they had been in 2010 (37%) as said they were better off (18%) – though they were more likely to say the country as a whole was worse off (42%) than that they were personally. Half of all UKIP voters said Britain was worse off now than it had been four years ago.
However, only just over one fifth of voters said they thought that either the country (22%) or they themselves (23%) would have been better off than they were now had Labour been in government since 2010. More than a third (35%) said Britain would probably have been worse off, and 30% thought they would have been worse off themselves. Swing voters were the most likely to say it would probably have made no difference.
There has been little movement on these questions since I last asked them at the end of May, suggesting that opinion on these matters is largely settled: it will be a struggle for Labour to convince any more voters that Britain would have been better off under their Plan B, and fruitless for the Tories to spend more energy blaming Labour for the recession. What matters is what happens next.

How much each vote cost in a by election.

How much each by election cost

Above is a link to the first part where it said how much by election cost

Now we figure out how much each vote cost.

By election - Turnout - Cost of by election - cost per vote

Manchester Central - 16,648 - £264,727 - £15.90
Cardiff South & Penarth - 19,436 - £248,326 - £12.78
Middlesbrough - 16,866 - £200,889 - £11.91
Feltham & Heston 23,299 - £275,768 - £11.84
Croydon North 24,562 - £280,245 - £11.41
Rotherham 21,330 - £235,852 - £11.06
Wythenshawe & Sale East - 23,961 - £256,529 - £10.71
South Shields - 24,780 - £242,340 - £9.78
Barnsley Central 24,219 - £216,977 - £8.96
Bradford West - 32,905 - £220,005 - £6.69
Corby - 35,665 - £229,509 - £6.46
Oldham & Saddleworth - 34,930 - £222,032 - £6.36
Eastleigh - 41,616 - £256,629 - £6.17
Leicester South - 34,180 - £197,628 - £5.78

figures up until Feb 2014

Sunday, 19 October 2014

YOUGOV (There is NO smoke without a Cigarette)

https://yougov.co.uk/refer/HdvYK1txkm0PfdJX43_Iow/  <<< Follow the link if you would like to join the YOUGOV panel and have your opinions heard

Just having a nosey thru the polls and YOUGOV asked today about whether you smoked or not, and surprise surprise those that don't smoke want a ban, and those whom do smoke oppose the ban. here are the numbers. 

 

Also found it funny that some people didn't know if they had smoked or not.
link go to page 9 and 10

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/u8bo20w8ll/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-171014.pdf

Rochester & Strood by election candidates

The full list of candidates announced so far, in alphabetical order by surname, is:

Gregory, Clive - Green Party
Fransen, Jayda - Britain First
Juby, Geoff - Liberal Democrats
Khan, Naushabah - Labour
Reckless, Mark - UK Independence Party

Top 20 Lib Dem seats for UKIP

The top 20 most Ukip friendly Lib Dem seats are listed below. The overall ranking of each seat in the full Revolt on the Right database is provided in the final column.

ukip lib dem seats

 Source
http://www.libdemvoice.org/the-independent-view-what-are-the-most-ukipfriendly-liberal-democrat-seats-42291.html

YOUUGOV POLLING (Regional voting vs Whos a good/bad leader)

https://yougov.co.uk/refer/HdvYK1txkm0PfdJX43_Iow/  <<< Follow the link if you would like to join the YOUGOV panel and have your opinions heard

 
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/u8bo20w8ll/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-171014.pdf

COMRES (PROMPTED V NOT PROMPTED FOR UKIP)

This week Comres split the people they spoke to into 2 groups one group they didn't prompt for UKIP and another group they did prompt for UKIP here are the results. A by product of this also seems to be that the Green Party also get a small boost when people are prompted for UKIP.
Data where people were prompted

http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/ComRes_IoS_SM_Trial_voting_intention_wording_19th_October_2014.pdf

Date where they were not prompted

http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/IoS_SM_Voting_Intention_19th_October_2014.pdf

Saturday, 18 October 2014

A list of upcoming Council by elections

Thanks to MiddleEnglander

There are 13 by-elections during the remainder of October with 14 so far in November and 1 in December. There are a further 21 known vacancies where the election has as yet no date together with 1 pending following the election as MP last week of a local councillor.

23rd October - 8
Argyll & Bute UA, Oban North & Lorn - Independent died - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, SNP, Ind
Chichester DC, Rogate - Conservative died - 2 candidates: Con, UKIP
Durham UA, Burnopfield & Dipton - Derwentside Independent resigned - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, Green, Derwentside Ind
Durham UA, Evenwood - Labour died - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, UKIP, Green, Ind
Forest of Dean DC, Newnham & Westerley - Independent died - 6 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, UKIP, Green, Ind
Gloucestershire CC, Mitcheldean - Independent died - 6 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, UKIP, Green, Ind
Mid Sussex DC, Haywards Heath Lucastes - Conservative died - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, UKIP
Shepway DC, Folkestone Harvey West - Conservative died - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, UKIP, Green

30th October - 5
Castle Point BC, Canvey Island East - Canvey Island Independent disqualified - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, Canvey Isle Ind, Ind
Neath Port Talbot UA, Sandfields East - Labour died - 3 candidates: Con, Lab, UKIP
North Ayrshire UA, North Coast - SNP died - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, SNP, UKIP, Ind
Telford & Wrekin UA, Iron Gorge - Labour died - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, UKIP, Ind
Telford & Wrekin UA, Newport West - Conservative resigned - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, UKIP, Ind

6th November - 2
Cornwall UA, Mevagissey - Labour resigned- 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, UKIP, Green
Rugby BC, Bilton - Conservative resigned - 7 Candidates: Con, Lab, LD, UKIP, Green, TUSAC, Ind

13th November - 7
Cambridge BC, Queen Edith's - Labour resigned - 3 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green
Dartford BC, Brent - Conservative died
Dartford BC, Littlebrook - Labour died
Derbyshire CC, Alport & Derwent - Conservative resigned
Mid Sussex DC, Bolney - Conservative resigned 3 candidates: Con, LD, UKIP
Wigan MB, Douglas - Labour resigned
Wokingham UA, Bulmershe & Whitegates - Liberal Democrat sitting as Independent disqualified

20th November - 2
Stockport MB, Bramhall South & Woodford - Conservative resigned
Swansea UA, Uplands - Labour resigned

27th November - 3
Aberdeenshire UA, Troup - Conservative died
Midlothian UA, Midlothian East - Labour sitting as Independent resigned
Orkney UA, Kirkwall West & Orphir - Independent resigned

11th December - 1
Moray UA, Elgin City North - Labour resigned

Current known vacancies where by-election not yet called - 21
Argyll & Bute UA, South Kintyre - SNP resigned around 19th September
Aylesbury Vale DC, Gatehouse - Liberal Democrat resigned around 15th October
Aylesbury Vale DC, Southcourt - Labour resigned around 13th October
East Yorkshire UA, Bridlington Central & Old Town - SDP died 16th September
East Yorkshire UA, Howdenshire - Conservative died around 23rd September
East Yorkshire UA, Willerby & Kirk Ella - Conservative died around 19th September
Halton BC, Kingsway - Labour died 9th October
High Peak DC, Limestone Peak - Conservative died around 15th September
Lichfield DC, St John's - Conservative died 14th September
Lincolnshire CC, Stamford North - Independent died 1st October
Mansfield DC, Netherfield - Mansfield Independent Forum died 27th May
Medway UA, Peninsula - Conservative sitting as UKIP resigned around 16th October
Melton DC, Asfordby - Labour died 6th September
Oxford BC, Blackbird Leys - Labour resigned 24th September
Oxford BC, Northfield Brook - Labour resigned 15th September
Oxfordshire CC, The Leys - Labour resigned 24th September
Rushcliffe DC, Manvers - Conservative died 26th September
South Oxfordshire DC, Goring- Conservative died 21st September
St Edmunsbury BC, Haverhill East - Conservative sitting as UKIP died 2nd October
Sunderland MB, Washington East - Labour resigned 13th October
Thurrock BC, Aveley & Uplands - UKIP died 24th September

Impending vacancy
Rossendale BC, Longholme - Labour following election as MP