Saturday, 20 September 2014

Populus polling

I like opinion polls because I like looking at numbers, and the same numbers can tell completely different stories depending on the direction you yourself are coming from. But the first numbers I will be showing is the weighting I have mentioned it before. But how can an opinion poll suddenly get rid of nearly three quarters of its respondents and nearly double another section because they need to weight the poll out. Votes cast are always the best source, but find below some of the breakdown of the populus polling.


http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/OmOnline_Vote_19-09-2014_BPC.pdf

Thoughts from Comres - Were 'Yes' ever in the lead?


POLLWATCH:
Were 'Yes' ever in the lead?
We are all experts with the power of hindsight. The airwaves this weekend will be packed with post hoc analysis of what happened in Scotland, fitting the final result to a preferred narrative. This makes a change from the approach sketched out in our previous Pollwatch:
The media love a tight battle. From now until the date of the referendum this will be a “knife edge” contest with “everything still to play for”.
Now that the results are in, the commentariat have switched effortlessly from the John Motson, commentary box style of punditry, marvelling at the ebb and flow of the contest, to a back in the studio, post-match critique of the “shocking defending” on show, replays and tactical diagrams galore.
Post-match analysis
So which explanations can be fit to the actual results?
Maybe it was Gordon Brown’s speech of his life, perhaps it was the “Shy Noes” who were afraid to admit their position to pollsters, or you might prefer to argue that people changed their minds at the last minute when they realised the enormity of the situation.
Proving exactly what has happened over the course of a political campaign is difficult. Some pollsters showed a sudden surge for “Yes” in the closing weeks, while others showed a more consistent position from June onwards. Following a political campaign can be like standing outside a football stadium listening to the crowd and trying to get a feel for which team is ahead. Nobody knows the score until the final whistle has blown.
Did “Yes” ever stand a chance?
There were some strong bits of evidence that were ignored by many observers, though. In our previous Pollwatch we argued:
The evidence from previous referendums worldwide is that most “Don’t know” respondents will end up backing the “status quo” option on voting day.
Essentially, this means that to win a referendum, the “change” option needs to be polling above 50% – before “Don’t knows” are excluded from the tally. This never happened at any point in the contest. As the eminent psephologist Professor Michael Thrasher has said, “I doubt the Yes campaign were ever ahead.”
Talk of the difference being within the margin of error rather missed the point. Yes, a single survey result typically has a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points, but the average of a series of polls ought in theory to be much more accurate than that. Better Together were always ahead on this “poll of polls” measure:

Likewise, the idea that differential turnout could have swung the result towards “Yes” overlooked the fact that all the demographics historically associated with higher turnout – older people, more affluent ABC1s, and those who have voted previously – were skewing heavily towards a “No” vote. (Contrast the 75% voter turnout in Glasgow with the 84% of the electorate who cast their ballot in Edinburgh.)
Decisive moment or knee-jerk reaction?
If we accept this analysis, then it has big implications for the Westminster politicians who changed tack just over a week ago to offer a much more comprehensive devolution settlement to Scotland.
David Cameron, Ed Miliband, and Nick Clegg will be keen to argue that their decisive move worked to shore up the “No” vote and was the reason that the eventual lead for the pro-Union side was wider than any pollster had predicted.
This seems unlikely. The Québécoise sociologist Claire Durand of the University of Montreal drew upon her experience of analysing polling data during Quebec’s 1995 independence referendum to predict in August that “Yes” was a very long way from victory:
The Scottish Yes side needs a very major event in order to gain the support of a majority of Scottish people.
Her projections redistributed “don’t know” responses far more heavily towards “No” than towards “Yes”, in line with Quebec's experience. Throughout September, she repeatedly showed that while “Yes” had made small gains each week from the beginning of August, it had still not come close to threatening an upset.
Her projected outcome on Friday 12th September showed “Yes” on around 45%, with less than a week to go:
The best that can be argued for Gordon Brown’s cross-party deal on Scottish powers (agreed on 8th September) is that it may have prevented the “Yes” vote from climbing further, to around 46%. Or indeed the polls may have systematically overestimated stated “Yes” support in a way not factored into Prof Durand’s model.
Either way, the move to afford Scotland greater powers looks like a knee-jerk reaction – opening a Pandora’s box in Westminster that creates problems for both Mr Cameron and Mr Miliband in the run-up to the General Election.
What next for Westminster?
Our latest research for ITV News shows that a majority of British people (54%) now support a move to prevent Scottish MPs in Westminster from voting on issues that do not impact on Scotland. More controversially, two fifths (40%) of the population now support the creation of an English Parliament, and nearly half (48%) support devolution of powers to major cities and regions in England and Wales.
The noises coming from Conservative MPs since the Brown-Cameron Pact are likely to be only a hint of what is yet to come. Major constitutional change is something that scares many Conservative and Labour politicians alike.
ComRes will be polling MPs, Future MPs, MSPs, and the general public across the UK in the coming weeks to assess what impact this could have. But with the law of unintended consequences now in play, we are very much back in the commentary box with John Motson: “it’s nil-nil, and anything could happen.”
Follow ComRes on Twitter for the latest polls and analysis:@ComResPolls
Author:
Andy White, Senior Consultant
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Friday, 19 September 2014

UK GENERAL ELECTION FORECAST

Latest Forecast from Stephen Fisher Forecast b 140919
After losing their lead in our forecast last week, the Conservatives have rebounded this week for their strongest forecast in two months.
In the UK Polling Report Average, the Tories have recovered the point they lost last week, back to 33%. Meanwhile Labour have lost a point for the first time since the beginning of July, to 35%. (UKIP are down two, to 13%.) The two-point gap is the closest the Tories have been since early-2012, with the exception of a single week in mid-May when they were just a point behind Labour.
That puts the Tories back in front in our forecast, with their chances of winning the most seats rising from 48% to 56%, their highest since mid-July. Labour’s chances are down from 52% to 44%.
It’s still very finely-balanced, with a 51% chance that neither party gains a majority (down a touch from 52% last week). Our model gives the Tories a 29% of winning a majority (up from 22%), and Labour a 20% chance (down from 26%).
Our central forecast is for the Tories to win 303 seats (up from 295 last week), leaving them 23 seats short of a majority. Labour are 11 seats behind on 292, down from 299 last week. In that scenario, the Lib Dems get 26 seats with 11.5% of the vote, enough for a very slim majority coalition with the Conservatives, but not with Labour.

Date of forecast: 19 September 2014
Days till the election: 230
Inputted current average poll shares (from UK Polling Report)
Con: 33%
Lab: 35%
LD: 8%
Others (inc. UKIP): 24%
– UKIP: 13%
Forecast Election Day Shares (with 95% Prediction Intervals)
Con: 35.7% (±7.1, i.e. 29% – 43%)
Lab: 31.8% (±5.4, i.e. 26% – 37%)
LD: 11.5% (±7.7, i.e. 4% – 19%)
Implied point estimate shares for:
– Others (inc. UKIP): 21.0%
– UKIP: 11.4%
Forecast Election Day Seats (with approximate 95% Prediction Intervals)
Con: 303 (226 – 391)
Lab: 292 (208 – 364)
LD: 26 (21 – 33)
(Prediction intervals assume LD & others shares at central forecast, Con & Lab shares vary as per prediction intervals)
Central forecast: Con largest party, but short of a majority by 23
Approximate probabilities of key outcomes
Con largest: 56%
… with a majority: 29%
Lab largest: 44%
… with a majority: 20%
Hung Parliament: 51%
… with Con largest: 27%
… with Lab largest: 24%
(probabilities may not sum due to rounding)

Thursday, 18 September 2014

#indyref RESULTS 32 Scottish counting regions

FEEL FREE TO COMMENT WOULD LOVE TO READ YOUR VIEWS

  IT IS A NO VOTE

Some interesting stats from the indyref

Above is a link to interesting stats, below is the list of 32 counting regions and as the results come in we will do our best to keep up to date with the results.

ALL 32 councils have declared

YES - 44.70%
NO - 55.30%

Scottish counting regionYESNO
Aberdeen City59,39084,094
Aberdeenshire71,337108,606
Angus35,04445,192
Argyll & Bute26,32437,143
Clackmannanshire16,35019,036
Dunfries & Galloway36,61470,039
Dundee City53,62039,880
East Ayrshire39,76244,442
East Dunbartonshire30,62448,314
East Lothian27,46744,283
East Renfrewshire24,28741,690
City of Edinburgh123,927194,638
Falkirk50,04958,030
Fife114,148139,788
Glasgow City194,779169,347
Highland78,06987,739
Inverclyde27,24327,329
Midlothian26,37033,972
Moray27,23236,935
North Ayrshire47,07249,016
North Lanarkshire115,783110,992
Perth & Kinross41,47562,714
Renfrewshire55,46662,067
Scottish Borders27,90655,553
South Ayrshire34,40247,247
South Lanarkshire100,990121,800
Stirling25,01037,513
West Dunbartonshire33,72028,776
West Lothian53,34265,682
Na h-Eileanan Siar9,19510,544
Orkney Islands4,88310,004
Shetland Islands5,6699,951
TOTALS1,617,9892,001,926

Wednesday, 17 September 2014

#indyref Poll result

I would like to thank everyone who took part in the poll, we had well over 200 opinions placed.

Question

Should Scottish voters vote in #GE2015 if Scotland says YES?

YES 11%
NO 80%
YES but then have another election in 2016 9%

#indyref Some stats






Tuesday, 16 September 2014

Latest Survation #indyref

Survation/ Scottish Daily Mail release their latest poll on the Scottish independence referendum. 1000 Scots aged 16+ were interviewed online from 12-16th September. Tables are available here.

Headline voting intention (with change in brackets since our last online poll on 11 September):
Yes - 44% (+2)
No - 48% (No Change)
Undecided - 8% (-2)
 
Excluding Undecided Voters:
Yes - 48.0% (+1)
No - 52.0% (-1)

Note: these results are not comparable to our telephone poll from 13 September as the methodology is different.

Statement of Persons Nominated Heywood & Middleton

Statement of Persons Nominated

www.rochdale.gov.uk/pdf/2014-09-16-SPNNOP.pdf

John Bickley - UKIP
Iain Gartside - Conservative
Abi Jackson - Green
Liz McInnes - Labour
Anthony Smith - Liberal Democrat

SOUTH YORKSHIRE PCC ELECTION RESULTS VERSUS EURO 2014

South Yorkshire is made up of Barnsley, Rotherham, Doncaster and Sheffield.

here are the results from 2014 euro elections

SOUTH YORKS TOTALS

LABOUR 114,068 - 34.4%
UKIP 110,383 - 33.3%
CONSERVATIVES 38,234 - 11.5%
LIBDEMS 18,653 - 5.6%
ENG DEMS 5,148 - 1.6%
OTHERS 45,340 - 13.6%

331,826 VOTES CAST

BARNSLEY

LABOUR 19,455
UKIP 19,055
CONSERVATIVES 5,729
ENGLISH DEMOCRATS 1,201
LIBDEMS 1,142
OTHERS 6,479

DONCASTER

UKIP 24,240
LABOUR 23,743
CONSERVATIVES 9,747
LIBDEMS 1,869
ENGLISH DEMOCRATS 1,809
OTHERS 7734

ROTHERHAM

UKIP 27,949
LABOUR 23,299
CONSERVATIVES 7,429
LIBDEMS 1,343
ENG DEMS 829
OTHERS 7,270

SHEFFIELD

LABOUR 47,571
UKIP 39,139
CONSERVATIVES 15,329
LIBDEMS 14,299
ENG DEMS 1,309
OTHERS 23,857

This is the result November 2012
Turnout: 145,294 (14.5%)

Candidate

Party

1st pref

%

Shaun Wright Labour 74,615 51.35
David Allen English Democrat 22,608 15.56
Nigel Bonson Conservative 21,075 14.51
Jonathan Arnott UKIP 16,773 11.54
Rob Teal Liberal Democrat 10,223 7.04