Monday, 4 May 2015

UK General Election Prediction from Electoral Calculus

Current Prediction: Conservative short 46 of majority

Party2010 Votes2010 SeatsPred VotesPred Seats
CON37.0%30733.5%280
LAB29.7%25831.4%276
LIB23.6%5710.1%18
UKIP3.2%013.6%2
Green1.0%15.1%1
SNP1.7%64.1%52
PlaidC0.6%30.6%3
Minor3.4%01.6%0
N.Ire 18 18
Prediction based on opinion polls from 24 Apr 2015 to 03 May 2015, sampling 22,091 people.

Probability of possible outcomes

Nat choice of Con/Lab
27%
Con/Nat coalition
25%
Lab/Nat coalition
22%
Con choice of Lib/Nat
10%
Lab choice of Lib/Nat
8%
Labour majority
4%
Conservative majority
4%
The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election. ('Nat' means SNP+PlaidC)
www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/ 

Electoral Calculus continues to update the headline prediction live in real time 
as new opinion polls are published. 

As the election continues to be very close, the Conservatives have regained a one 
half per cent lead over Labour in the opinion polls. They continue to be ahead 
in the betting markets, so the overall average gives them a small advantage in 
terms of seats. The Conservatives are currently predicted to be the largest 
party. 

But the central case for the election outcome is a hung parliament, with Labour 
and the SNP as the largest bloc. They may or may not have a majority. 

The averages: Con 34 (+1), Lab 31 (-1), Lib 10 (nc), UKIP 14 (+1), Grn 5 (nc). 

The new national prediction is that the Conservatives will be 46 seats short of a 
majority, winning 280 seats (+3 seats since 26 April). 

Electoral Calculus 

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