Electoral Calculus continues to update the headline prediction live in real time
as new opinion polls are published.
As the election continues to be very close, the Conservatives have regained a one
half per cent lead over Labour in the opinion polls. They continue to be ahead
in the betting markets, so the overall average gives them a small advantage in
terms of seats. The Conservatives are currently predicted to be the largest
But the central case for the election outcome is a hung parliament, with Labour
and the SNP as the largest bloc. They may or may not have a majority.
The averages: Con 34 (+1), Lab 31 (-1), Lib 10 (nc), UKIP 14 (+1), Grn 5 (nc).
The new national prediction is that the Conservatives will be 46 seats short of a
majority, winning 280 seats (+3 seats since 26 April).