UK General Election Prediction from Electoral Calculus

Current Prediction: Conservative short 46 of majority

Party	2010 Votes	2010 Seats	Pred Votes	Pred Seats
CON	37.0%	307	33.5%	280
LAB	29.7%	258	31.4%	276
LIB	23.6%	57	10.1%	18
UKIP	3.2%	0	13.6%	2
Green	1.0%	1	5.1%	1
SNP	1.7%	6	4.1%	52
PlaidC	0.6%	3	0.6%	3
Minor	3.4%	0	1.6%	0
N.Ire		18		18

Prediction based on opinion polls from 24 Apr 2015 to 03 May 2015, sampling 22,091 people.

Probability of possible outcomes

Nat choice of Con/Lab	27%
Con/Nat coalition	25%
Lab/Nat coalition	22%
Con choice of Lib/Nat	10%
Lab choice of Lib/Nat	8%
Labour majority	4%
Conservative majority	4%

The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election. ('Nat' means SNP+PlaidC)

www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/ 

Electoral Calculus continues to update the headline prediction live in real time 
as new opinion polls are published. 

As the election continues to be very close, the Conservatives have regained a one 
half per cent lead over Labour in the opinion polls. They continue to be ahead 
in the betting markets, so the overall average gives them a small advantage in 
terms of seats. The Conservatives are currently predicted to be the largest 
party. 

But the central case for the election outcome is a hung parliament, with Labour 
and the SNP as the largest bloc. They may or may not have a majority. 

The averages: Con 34 (+1), Lab 31 (-1), Lib 10 (nc), UKIP 14 (+1), Grn 5 (nc). 

The new national prediction is that the Conservatives will be 46 seats short of a 
majority, winning 280 seats (+3 seats since 26 April). 

Electoral Calculus