Tuesday, 5 May 2015

Latest Prediction from Electoral Calculus for the UK General Election

Current Prediction: Conservative short 44 of majority

Party2010 Votes2010 SeatsPred VotesPred Seats
CON 37.0%307 33.8%282
LAB 29.7%258 31.4%275
LIB 23.6%57 10.4%18
UKIP 3.2%0 13.2%1
Green 1.0%1 5.3%1
SNP 1.7%6 4.1%52
PlaidC 0.6%3 0.6%3
Minor 3.4%0 1.2%0
N.Ire 18 18
Prediction based on opinion polls from 24 Apr 2015 to 05 May 2015, sampling 21,380 people.

Probability of possible outcomes

Con/Nat coalition
27%
Nat choice of Con/Lab
25%
Lab/Nat coalition
21%
Con choice of Lib/Nat
12%
Lab choice of Lib/Nat
7%
Conservative majority
4%
Labour majority
4%
The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election. ('Nat' means SNP+PlaidC)

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