Friday, 1 May 2015

Latest UK General Election Prediction from Electoral Calculus

Current Prediction: Conservative short 46 of majority

Party2010 Votes2010 SeatsPred VotesPred Seats
CON 37.0%307 33.7%280
LAB 29.7%258 31.7%275
LIB 23.6%57 10.1%17
UKIP 3.2%0 13.3%1
Green 1.0%1 5.4%1
SNP 1.7%6 4.2%55
PlaidC 0.6%3 0.6%3
Minor 3.4%0 1.2%0
N.Ire 18 18
Prediction based on opinion polls from 23 Apr 2015 to 30 Apr 2015, sampling 20,974 people.

Probability of possible outcomes

Nat choice of Con/Lab
24%
Con/Nat coalition
21%
Lab/Nat coalition
18%
Con choice of Lib/Nat
10%
Lab choice of Lib/Nat
10%
Conservative majority
9%
Labour majority
8%
The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election. ('Nat' means SNP+PlaidC)

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html SOURCE

No comments:

Post a comment

Comment is open to all feel free to link to this blog.