Saturday, 28 February 2015

#GE2015 Seat winners Collated by First Past The Post

The latest GE2015 forecast from First Past the Post, based on constituency-level betting data
LABOUR 283 CONSERVATIVES 273 SNP 35 LIBDEM 28 UKIP 7 OTHERS 24 submit to reddit

#GE2015 Forecast for Scotland from Electoral Calculus

As a large and distinct region of the country, Scotland enjoys its own political atmosphere. Polling in Scottish newspapers and media also allows us to make specific predictions for Scottish seats at Westminster.

Predictions of seats won at Westminster

Party2010 Votes2010 SeatsPred VotesPred Seats
CON 16.7%1 16.5%0
LAB 42.0%41 27.7%13
LIB 18.9%11 4.4%0
UKIP 0.7%0 3.4%0
Green 0.7%0 3.7%0
NAT 19.9%6 43.5%46
Minor 1.1%0 0.7%0
Prediction based on opinion polls from 12 Feb 15 to 25 Feb 15, sampling 3,597 people.

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Latest #GE2015 Forecast from Electoral Calculus

There has been an update to Electoral Calculus published on 28 February 2015 at 

Current Prediction: Labour short 25 of majority
Party2010 Votes2010 SeatsPred VotesPred Seats
Prediction based on opinion polls from 08 Feb 15 to 27 Feb 15, sampling 10,871 people.

Probability of possible outcomes

Labour majority
Lab/Nat coalition
Conservative majority
Nat choice of Con/Lab
Con/Nat coalition
Lab choice of Lib/Nat
Con choice of Lib/Nat
No overall control
The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election.

February saw little change to the overall averages of party support. Labour
continues to have a small lead over the Conservatives nationally, and the SNP
maintained its strong position in Scotland with 46 seats predicted.
UKIP lost a little ground, dropping about 1.5%. Overall the situation would
imply a Labour/SNP coalition at Westminster.

The most recent polls from the eight pollsters who published polls in February

Ipsos-MORI (Evening Standard) has Con 34, Lab 36, Lib 6, UKIP 9, Green 7
ICM (Guardian) has Con 36, Lab 32, Lib 10, UKIP 9, Green 7
TNS BMRB has Con 28, Lab 35, Lib 6, UKIP 18, Green 7
Opinium (Observer) has Con 35, Lab 33, Lib 6, UKIP 15, Green 7
ComRes (Daily Mail) has Con 34, Lab 32, Lib 8, UKIP 13, Green 8
Survation (Daily Mirror) has Con 28, Lab 34, Lib 10, UKIP 19, Green 4
YouGov (Sun) has Con 33, Lab 34, Lib 8, UKIP 13, Green 6
Populus has Con 31, Lab 33, Lib 9, UKIP 16, Green 6

The averages: Con 32 (nc), Lab 34 (+1), Lib 8 (nc), UKIP 14 (-2), Grn 6 (nc).

The new national prediction is that Labour will be 25 seats short of a majority,
winning 301 seats (+4 seats since 1 February).

Electoral Calculus
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Yougov (Voting Intentions V Education)  <<< Follow the link if you would like to join the YOUGOV panel and have your opinions heard

So as Miliband made his speech yesterday, yougov released an Opinion Poll with voters thoughts on who would protect the interests of Universities, Students & School Teachers/Children.

For a rare occasion the Green Party is put into the mix, and they out poll UKIP is this why they were included? Shame they didn't also include Green voters in the down column as well. So you could see What Green voters thought of their own party.

Most voters didn't whole heartily support their own party. Labour did the best but in some areas only managed just above 50% of their own voters thinking they would be best. The worst party for lack of self belief was the UKIP voter, with less than 1 in 5 thinking that their own party was best placed to protect the interests of those the question was about. 

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South Thanet Making Plans For Nigel? by SharpeAngle

Written by Graham Sharpe

NOT ONLY opinion pollsters, but also bookmakers William Hill believe that Nigel Farage is a hot favourite to become an MP at the General Election - quoting him at odds of 4/7 to win the South Thanet seat.

Survation Polling For Alan Bown - South Thanet 

Hills are also making UKIP odds-on shots to win five or more seats, quoting them at 8/11 to do so.They are also 7/1 shots with William Hill to be part of a government coalition as a result of the General Election.

And UKIP are also fancied to poll more votes than the Lib Dems, with William Hill making them 2/7 to do so, 5/2 not to.

'UKIP's ever growing impact on domestic politics has added a fascinating element to the General Election campaign and they have been heavily backed to win five or more seats, which may give them a genuine chance of being involved in a coalition government' said Hill's spokesman Graham Sharpe.

S THANET CONSTITUENCY.....4/7 Nigel Farage; 2/1 Tories; 9/1 Labour; 40/1 Al 'Pub Landlord' Murray; 150/1 Greens; 150/1 Lib Dems

HOW MANY SEATS WILL UKIP WIN AT GENERAL ELECTION? 0- 11/1; 1-2 7/2; 3-4 11/4; 5 OR MORE - 8/11


Further information.....graham sharpe.....0780 3233702

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Friday, 27 February 2015

Drew Carswell, Above & Beyond candidate for Cheadle #GE2015

We would like to Thank The @VoteAboveBeyond For taking up our offer of 
Would you like free advertising for your political party or #GE2015 Campaign? 

The above link has the details of how to advertise your party or campaign If you would like us to do this for you then mail us at .

You are only NOT accepted if...
1) Your party did appear on the list of parties getting millions pounds of donations last year
2) You hate/dislike other people for where they happen to come from or how they happen to be.
Full name: Drew Carswell

Date of birth: 24/03/1995

Occupation: Full-time student at the University of Sheffield, studying History and Politics.

From where? Live in Cheadle Hulme, Greater Manchester and Sheffield.

Why I am standing: 'I believe there is no voice for the discontented, there is so much disillusion with current politics and that highlights the problem with the system. My aim is to give this disillusionment a voice. People I have spoken to have all expressed the same feelings – currently our government is not serving our needs but those of big corporations. People I have consulted also talk about politicians being liars and that all the main parties offer very little in terms of alternatives.'

Hopes for the campaign: 'I don't want to put a number on how many votes I think is achievable. At the very least I would like the people of Cheadle to understand our message and think about whether the system is working. There is a sense of betrayal in Cheadle with regards the Lib Dems entering a coalition with the Conservatives and the broken promises such as tuition fees. I'm looking forward to meeting as many people as possible in Cheadle and hope they feel there is an option come May 7th.'

Hobbies and interests: Keen cricketer (Cheadle CC), passionate Burnley FC fan, enjoy playing football (previously founded a football club in Cheadle constituency, Woodford Road FC), golf and most sports. Also a big fan of films and music and enjoy a trip to the pub!
If you are interested in helping Drew click here to email us. You can follow him on Twitter @DrewCarswell1
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#GE2015 Forecast from ElectionsETC

Forecast main 150227

No change in our polling average this week: it’s still Lab 33%, Con 32%, as it has been since the start of 2015.
Our model therefore still makes the Tories favourites to win the most votes (with a 67% chance), but Labour very slight favourites to win the most seats (with a 52% chance). Neither party is likely to win a majority, though: we give the Tories an 8% chance and Labour a 6% one, leaving an 87% chance of a hung parliament (up a touch from 86% last week).
So, if parliament does end up hung, who will govern? We’ve given that question more thought, listened to your input and others’, and changed our assumptions as to which alliances are most likely – as you can see from the graphic above.
We now assume that whichever party has the most MPs will do a deal with the DUP, if that’d yield a majority (either in coalition, or a confidence-and-supply agreement). If it wouldn’t, we then ask whether an alliance with the Lib Dems would, or failing that a three-party deal with both the Lib Dems and the DUP.
If Labour are the largest party but the Lib Dems and DUP aren’t enough to give them a majority, we then assume they’d call on the smaller left-wing parties (the SDLP, Plaid Cymru and the Greens), as well as Lady Hermon if necessary.
That leaves the SNP. What if neither party can get to 323 MPs without them? (Our model gives a 16.5% chance of this.)
First, there’s a 3.5% chance that Labour have the most seats and a Lab-SNP alliance would yield a majority (without the others). Under these circumstances, Ed Miliband might well be able to cut a deal with Nicola Sturgeon and Alex Salmond that would put him into Number 10.
But there’s also a 13% chance the Tories are the largest party, but can’t reach a majority without the SNP. In that scenario, the SNP would essentially have three options (having ruled out actively supporting a Tory-led government): abstain, allowing a Tory PM to win a confidence motion; back a Labour-led left-wing government; or refuse either deal. If the SNP choose the third option, neither Cameron nor Miliband (nor their successors, if they step down) would be able to win a confidence vote, forcing another election. (Of course, it may not really be the SNP’s choice. The other parties might be too uncompromising to enable the SNP to even abstain in confidence votes.) We therefore call this the “SNP kingmakers or wreckers” scenario.

Acknowledgements: We particularly would like to thank Richard Coggins, Philip Cowley, John CIain McLean, Petra Schleiter and Jon Tonge for their comments and advice on these assumptions and issues. We were able to incorporate some but not all of their suggestions. Defects are our responsibility.

Date of forecast: 27 February 2015
Days till the election: 69
Inputted current average poll shares
Con: 32%
Lab: 33%
LD: 8%
UKIP: 14%
Others: 13%
Forecast GB Vote Shares (with 95% Prediction Intervals)
Con: 33.6% (29% – 38%)
Lab: 31.5% (27% – 36%)
LD: 10.1% (6% – 15%)
UKIP: 12.9% (9% – 17%)
Others: 11.9% (10% – 14%)
Forecast Scotland Vote Shares (with 95% Prediction Intervals)
SNP: 44% (40% – 48%)
Labour: 31% (27% – 35%)
Forecast GB Seats (with 95% Prediction Intervals)
Con: 279 (235 – 330)
Lab: 283 (235 – 325)
LD: 23 (13 – 36)
SNP: 40 (27 – 50)
PC: 3
Grn: 1
(May not sum to 632 due to rounding of sums of probabilities. Prediction intervals not yet available for UKIP, PC and Grn.)
Central forecast: Lab short of a majority by 40
(Criterion for majority now changed to 323 not 326, assuming Sinn Fein win 5 seats and do not take them.)
Probabilities of key outcomes
Con largest: 48%
Lab largest: 52%
Hung Parliament: 87%
… with Con largest: 40%
… with Lab largest: 47%
Probabilities of predicted government outcomes:
Con majority: 8%
Con+DUP: 5%
Con+LD: 12%
Con+LD+DUP: 11%
Con largest, SNP kingmakers or wreckers: 13%
Lab majority: 6%
Lab+DUP: 6%
Lab+LD: 17%
Lab+LD+DUP: 11%
Lab+LD+DUP+SDLP+PC+Grn+Hermon: 8%
Lab+SNP: 4%
(Probabilities may not sum due to rounding)
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UK POLLING REPORT - uniform swing projection #GE2015

251 308 21 52 18
Hung Parliament. Labour short by 18

The standard method of translating shares of the vote into seats is to use a uniform swing calculation. This means that the national change in vote share for each party is applied to each individual seat to see how that would effect the result, and then these theoretical results in each seat are totted up to produce a projection for House of Commons.
This is a crude measure and can result in some illogical and impossible projections – for example, if a poll showed Labour support dropping by 13%, as one poll did during Summer 2008, then a uniform swing calculation using those figures would project Labour getting less than zero votes in 48 seats. This is clearly nonsense. Such projections also ignore any regional variations, tactical considerations or variations due to incumbency effects of new MPs or MPs standing down. Despite all these drawbacks, it normally does a reasonably good job and, given that it is a straight extrapolation of current voting figures it is at least accepted as a fair projection that is not at the whim of individual guesswork or assumptions.

UPDATE: Even with all the caveats above, the rise of the SNP in Scotland meant that a plain UNS projection was starting to look really quite absurd. From February 2015 I’ve moved slightly from straight UNS – instead there is UNS in Scotland, and UNS in the rest of Great Britain. The Scottish UNS is based on an average of recent Scottish polls, the figures for the rest of the country are based on the average of GB polls, but adjusted to account for Scotland.
For the avoidance of doubt, this is NOT my prediction of what will happen at the election. It is a uniform swing projection based on the current average of the polls – it doesn’t take account of how the polls might change before may, or things like incumbency, by-elections or constituency polling. It is not what I expect to actually happen in May.


Thursday, 26 February 2015

Survation Polling For Alan Bown - South Thanet

Primarily of course this polling is to find out about UKIPs chances in South Thanet but if you look at the bottom of the post we also happen to find the demographic of the Al Murray FKUP voter.

Survation on behalf of Alan Bown have polled the South Thanet constituency in the first poll to date to name the candidates standing for election. Fieldwork dates 18th-20th February 2015, Sample size 1011.
In answer to the question:
If the General Election was tomorrow, how would you vote in your South Thanet constituency if the following candidates were standing?
Headline figures are:
Nigel Farage UKIP - 39%
Will Scobie LAB - 28%
Craig Mackinlay CON - 27%
Ian Driver GRE -  3%  
Russ Timpson LD -  2%
Al Murray FUKP - 1%
Another Candidate - 1%

Full data tables can be found here.
For reference, Survation on behalf of Alan Bown previously polled the South Thanet constituency in November 2013, prompting party names only.
The main voting prompt question in our previous polling was:
If that general election were to be held tomorrow, which party do you think you would be most likely to vote for in your South Thanet constituency?
Headline figures were:
LAB 35%
UKIP 30%
CON 28%
LD 5%
AP 3%
Data tables for our previous South Thanet poll can be found here.

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COMRES POLLWATCH - Centre Ground or No Man's Land? The guerrilla election

 Centre Ground or No Man's Land?
The guerrilla election
It has been a tough election for centrists – once the leading force in British politics. David Cameron’s ‘modernisation’ strategy has stalled. Ed Miliband has disowned New Labour. The Lib Dems are now a rump party.
Once upon a time, a commitment to centre ground politics was the hallmark of a party serious about government. In keeping with Westminster tradition, I will use military and sporting analogies to explain.
If you imagine two armies facing each other on an ancient battlefield, or a rugby scrum with the ball at the hooker’s feet, then the aim in each case is to gain territory by inching forward over an imaginary gain line. This is the principle of “swing”.
When parties are locked in a head-to-head contest, their leaderships need only pay their own side sufficient attention to maintain motivation. Their loyalty ought not to be in question because the common cause is fighting a monolithic opponent: the “forces of conservatism” or the “socialist disease”.
The wide spectrum in between is contested territory, and resources are piled into fighting elections on this ground.
The guerrilla election
But if you start to introduce attacks from the flanks, the energy spent inching forward over the centre ground is not always easy to justify. The sacrifices at the flanks can become as costly as those on the main front.
The Lib Dems were the first party in British politics to exploit this, but it is only in the last few years that a host of different parties have started to influence elections in a big way.
In many ways the 2015 General Election has now taken on the qualities of a guerrilla campaign. Attacks and mishaps that would cause serious damage to a regular force are brushed off by the plucky insurgents of UKIP, the SNP and the Greens, who know their terrain and often have the mobility to evade their more powerful but cumbersome opponents.
So we arrive at an awkward equilibrium: the electoral map now a patchwork of parochial conflicts. The character of a Lib Dem-Labour battle in inner London is quite different from a UKIP insurgency on the East Coast or a Conservative-Labour contest in the suburban North West.
Those Conservative-Labour marginals can be misleading: their existence implies a direct battle for votes between the two major parties. In fact, they daren’t do the hard work – the really hard work – of trying to reach into each other’s territory. Instead, they prefer to consolidate their strongholds and tighten up against insurgents.
The widely forgotten Nick Clegg versus Nigel Farage debate ahead of the European elections was typical of most debates in British politics at the moment. They deliberately spoke to completely different audiences, despite the pretext of a head-to-head contest. They were both trying to take votes from Labour and the Conservatives, rather than each other.
Recent ComRes research for the Electoral Reform Society suggests this fragmented landscape is here to stay. The question is which strategy will work best for a party wanting to form a government.

No shortage of advice
There is no shortage of people telling the leaders what to do. Some have prescribed Mr Cameron a strong dose of further modernisation; others say he should have listened more to his core vote. Mr Miliband has been told to defend New Labour’s record; others say that New Labour is a tainted brand.
Conservative campaign strategist Lynton Crosby has a strong track record under preferential voting systems in London and Australia, and proportional voting in New Zealand. His leaders have built up huge Conservative blocs to take on Labour opponents.
But after flirting for so long with centrism and modernisation, switching to Mr Crosby’s knuckleduster game could lend Mr Cameron the air of the opportunist rather than the “big tent” statesman.
Look to Canada
So perhaps the Stephen Harper premiership in Canada is the best model for both Mr Cameron and Mr Miliband. After leading minority governments from 2006 to 2011, he finally won a working majority in 2011 – all under a first-past-the-post voting system.
He focused on keeping his side together, being a key figure in the Unite the Right movement which created the modern Canadian Conservative Party – and then built from there.
Ed Miliband seems to be following a similar blueprint. The only problem is that even ‘core vote’ politicians can still fail on their own terms. For every Michael Howard steadying the ship, there seems to be an Iain Duncan Smith or Michael Foot losing the troops.
Follow ComRes on Twitter for the latest polls and analysis:
Andy White
Head of Innovation
Be prepared for GE2015 with the new ComRes Election Toolkit: 

The 2015 Battlebus is an online survey of 1,000 adults living in the 40 most marginal constituencies where Labour and the Conservatives share first and second place between them and battle head-to-head to get their candidate elected. This survey offers unique access to the opinions of those voters who will win or lose the election for the main parties - all at omnibus price levels.
In the run up to the election, and whilst the parties are drafting their manifestos, this research tool is ideal for ensuring that each of the parties know the importance of your policy issues to those who will be decisive in getting them elected. This can be very powerful for lobbying material or for generating media hits.

The Green Surge on Crowd Funder

Whilst the argument lately has been how parties are funded. You have hedge funds for the Conservatives and the Unions for Labour. Well it seems to be the general Public for the Green Party as they use crowd funder to help get the money for their candidates.

If you would like to help a LOON to become a candidate in Worcester then follow this link Lets make ‘An Official Loony Candidate for Worcester .’ a reality. Asks Baron Fullstop


North Devon and Torridge/West Devon Green Party...

Help fund our election campaign by spreading our policies across our 2 constituencies with the freepost leaflet, printing 100,000+ is costly
Successfully overfunded
£1,655 RAISED
Green Party MP for Rugby & Bulkington

Green Party MP for Rugby & Bulkington

With your support we can together raise the fee to stand a strong local candidate and distribute leaflets in the general election.
Successfully overfunded
Fund our leaflets and Candidates

Fund our leaflets and Candidates

Help us encourage the on-going 'Green Surge' - with your support our seven local Candidates can print leaflets targeted at local concerns
Successfully funded
A Green MP for Bradford West

A Green MP for Bradford West

We are raising funds to elect Celia Hickson as the Green MP in Bradford West in May 2015.
Successfully overfunded
Help elect Vauxhall's first Green MP

Help elect Vauxhall's first Green MP

Vauxhall parlimentary candidate, Gulnar Hasnain needs your support for her campaign to become the first Green MP in Vauxhall
Successfully overfunded
£1,500 RAISED
A Green MP for Oldham

A Green MP for Oldham

We need to raise a deposit for Miranda Meadowcroft to stand as a Green Party candidate in the General Election, and to fund leaflets.
Successfully overfunded
Give Wiltshire voters a Green Party choice in 2015

Give Wiltshire voters a Green Party choice in 2...

To raise the deposit for the Green Party candidate in the North Wiltshire Constituency for the 2015 General Election
Successfully overfunded
Gloucester Greens - Election Campaign Funding

Gloucester Greens - Election Campaign Funding

We're raising funds to field candidates in the up-coming City Council & General Elections. Help us get our message to Gloucester residents!
Successfully overfunded
£1,280 RAISED
Green MP for the Isle of Wight

Green MP for the Isle of Wight

Give the voters of the Isle of Wight a real choice in May 2015 - a Green choice for a green island
Successfully overfunded
£1,041 RAISED
Help elect a Green MP in Reigate

Help elect a Green MP in Reigate

We need your help to stand Jonathan Essex as the Green Party candidate in the General Election this May.
Successfully funded
£2,001 RAISED
Help Elect Pippa Bartolotti MP

Help Elect Pippa Bartolotti MP

Your help is needed to give the people of Newport the chance to vote Green in the 2015 General Election.
Successfully overfunded
£2,000 RAISED
Michael Holt Green Party MP for Hartlepool 2015

Michael Holt Green Party MP for Hartlepool 2015

Raising the deposit for a Green Party candidate in Hartlepool at the General Election.
Successfully overfunded
£1,270 RAISED
Total 54 results
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