Wednesday, 18 February 2015

How many voters could now vote SNP?

Yesterday we did what be classed as a very simplistic exercise of looking at the yougov polling data and extrapolating the people who voted Conservative, Labour or LibDem in 2010 and then taking the percentage who say they will now vote Green or UKIP and convert them into votes from the figures using the votes cast in 2010. Now obviously it is now an exact science but does give you a very rough idea of numbers.

For UKIP it gave them 3.3 million voters
Link to the UKIP Calculations

For the Greens it gave them nearly 1.5million voters
Link to the Green Calculations

This all stemmed from just how many voters who did vote for the main 3 in 2010 will now vote for them today, and it shows just how many they had lost.
Link to - YOUGOV (Who will still vote for them this year?)

So today we thought we would turn our attentions to Scotland. There were polls at the beginning of Feb specific to Scotland which showed the intentions of 2010 voters.

In 2010

Labour gained 1,035,528 votes
SNP 491,386
LibDems 465,471
Conservatives 412,855

So

Labour gained 1,035,528 votes 9% of those are now don't knows or won't votes but the ones that will vote 45% say they will now vote SNP. This figure is 424,048

LibDems gained 465,471 vote 14% say they now don't know or won't vote but of the ones that will vote 43% say they will be voting SNP. This figure is 172,131


The Conservatives gained 412,855 votes according to YOUGOV 11% of those voters now don't know or won't vote and then 11% will now vote SNP This gives a figure of 40,419

In total
   
636,598 Who voted Conservative, Labour or LibDem in 2010 who say they will now vote SNP.

If these figures were uniform across the whole of the country.


With the 491,386 voters from 2010 even accounting for any loss of support and switchers to other parties that easily pushes the SNP through the Million mark which helped gain Labour 41 seats.

Survey used

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/a7awj68e8x/Final_Times_Results_150202_Website.pdf 

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