New polling by Survation on behalf of the Daily Record:
Fieldwork Dates: 12th-17th February Sample Size: 1011
Westminster Voting Intention (change from January Daily Record poll):
SNP 45% (-1); LAB 28% (+1); CON 15% (+1); LD 5% (-2); OTHER 7% (0)
Holyrood Constituency Voting Intention (change from January Daily Record poll):
SNP 48% (-2); LAB 28% (+2); CON 13% (+1); LD 5% (-1); OTHER 7% (+1)
Holyrood List Voting Intention (change from January Daily Record poll):
SNP 39% (0); LAB 22% (-1); CON 12% (-2); GREEN 13% (+3); LD 7% (-1); UKIP 7% (+1); OTHER 1% (0)
Commenting on the findings, Damian Lyons Lowe, Chief Executive of Survation said:
Despite showing some improvement for Scottish Labour since the appointment of Jim Murphy as leader today's results would still result in major gains for the SNP in Westminster, turning what would be a small workable majority for UK Labour into a range of uncertain scenarios, some of which increase the chances of a Conservative / Lib Dem coalition.
Based on today’s figures, our internal modelling indicates that Labour would lose 21 of their Scottish seats to the SNP and the Liberal Democrats 9 of their current 11 seats. Removing MPs who do not take up their seats (speakers & Sinn Fein) any single party or coalition requires 321 seats to have a “working majority” in the House of Commons.
Today’s results would leave Labour alone 31 seats short of this target with 290 Westminster seats and even a coaltion with the Lib Dems - whom we project would have 24 seats - would leave a Labour/Lib Dem coalition 7 seats short of this all important figure of 321.
Data tables are available here.