Monday, 2 February 2015

UK ELECTION TREND #GE2015 Prediction

A "significant" change to the model's prediction, as a surprise rise to consumer confidence pushes the predicted vote share for the conservatives back up a little. While it may look like they have a whole 1 point lead, this isn't really that big a change as the figures are rounded to the nearest percentage point for the graph. The figures the model actually use have a higher precision, and really it's still a statistical tie between Labour and Conservative vote shares, as it has been for some time.

And you'll notice this doesn't really bring much benefit to the Conservatives in terms of gaining seats and remaining in government. That's because the Conservatives have a great bulk of their support stacked up in seats they already win, while Labour have more support spread across seats they could win. This tilts the electoral calculus in Labours favour, and in terms of most-seats-won Labour still win ties in the national vote share even after all their losses to the SNP.

The curious point may be, that had the Conservatives not opposed AV this situation would be very different. Even had the Conservatives then still not been able to get the number of total seats reduced and reapportioned, they would have been in a much better position as they could pick up second-preference votes to protect seats now made vulnerable by the UKIP rise. We may well be looking at an election run in 2015 that was lost in 2011.
Originally posted here >>>

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