Current Prediction: Labour majority 84
| Party | 2010 Votes | 2010 Seats | Pred Votes | Pred Seats |
| CON | 36.97% | 307 | 31.16% | 232 |
| LAB | 29.66% | 258 | 38.11% | 367 |
| LIB | 23.56% | 57 | 9.83% | 23 |
| UKIP | 3.17% | 0 | 12.44% | 0 |
| NAT | 2.26% | 9 | 2.52% | 9 |
| MIN | 4.37% | 19 | 5.93% | 19 |
Prediction based on opinion polls from 11 Oct 13 to 01 Nov 13, sampling 11,071 people.
Probability of possible outcomes
| Conservative majority |
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| Labour majority |
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| Con/Lib coalition |
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| Lab/Lib coalition |
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| Lib choice of coalition |
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| No overall control |
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http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
I have concerns re. the ability of UKIP, if not to win a parliamentary seat outright, to cause chaos in the voting patterns to significantly distort the result in a number of constituencies and to alter projections at the next general elections.
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