Friday, 31 January 2014

FEBRUARYS POLITICAL POP CHART

A new month starts and here is the latest chart of political websites and how much traffic they are getting.

EACH LINK IS TO ALEXA.COM PAGE ALEXA RANKING EXPLAINED click the link.

UKIP take top spot from the BNP, with LABOUR also seeing a good jump in numbers but not enough to make any movement in the chart. The SNP make a good move up the charts with the Conservatives and Green Party seeing a slide in numbers visiting.

As the English Democrats drop out of the UK rankings we have a brand new entry by the PIRATE PARTY. with brand new additions of THE NATIONAL LIBERAL PARTY & NONE OF THE ABOVE.

PLAID CYMRU have seen a great drop in visitor numbers and are almost into the fringe numbers of visitors which is surprising for what would normally be classed as a main stream party.

Last months rankings in brackets, each link is to the ALEXA page for the party not the parties website

UK RANKING

1 (2) UKIP 3,790
2 (1) BNP 4,895
3 (3) LABOUR 4,920
4 (6) SNP 12,440
5 (7) LIBERAL DEMOCRATS 13,363
6 (5) CONSERVATIVES 14,638
7 (4) THE GREEN PARTY 23,973
8 (8) JUSTICE 4 MEN & BOYS 44,736
9 (10) SCOTTISH SOCIALIST PARTY 44,743
10 (-) PIRATE PARTY 44,893

GLOBAL RANKING

SINN FEIN  1,131,796
ENGLISH DEMOCRATS 2,187,288
MEBYON KERNOW 3,275,201
DEMOCRATIC UNIONIST PARTY 4,183,486
THE ALLIANCE PARTY  4,902,079
UK GENERAL ELECTION 2015 BLOG 5,152,931
TUV  6,375,063
ULSTER UNIONIST PARTY  6,540,253
NHA PARTY 8,225,636
NI21 8,270,107
SCOTTISH DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE 8,799,138
PLAID CYMRU 10,821,592
OMRLP 11,114,556
NONE OF THE ABOVE 11,844,856
CHRISTIAN PARTY 16,759,772
RESPECT PARTY 19,726,951
TUSC 19,996,471
NATIONAL LIBERAL PARTY 22,516,241

NO DATA

WESSEX REGIONALISTS 
PEOPLES DEMOCRATIC PARTY OF GREAT BRITAIN
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POPULUS POLLING 29th-30th JAN

  http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/Online-VI-31-01-2014.pdf
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YOUGOV POLLING 29-30 JAN

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/aoiewz6xxm/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-300114.pdf
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Thursday, 30 January 2014

SHOULD WE TAX FOOTBALL TRANSFER FEES?

 Please re tweet one of the tweets below if you agree with the view. That whilst families struggle for money in fuel/food poverty we will be talking about millions of pounds being moved around should it not be taxed directly and help those in real need.

I have put the question out there and from what I am getting back the actual transfer itself is not levied. ( I would gladly stand corrected)

It seems it is seen as an expense much like a company buys a commodity to then repackage and sell, or a piece of machinery.

The tax is meant to come from the profits or in most cases with big clubs losses, (so they then don't have any taxes to pay.)

Don't you think it is obscene that someone who has worked hard for years and studied to get themselves in a 150k a year job is forced to pay more tax, and a footballer who gets paid that a week/month is then bought and sold for fantasy money to offset tax bills contributes no addition to the country.

You may argue the millions it generates, but just how much of that is tax exempt or written off against other expenditures. Or like comedians who make themselves into business's then go offshore and then pay nothing or next to nothing back to the country which has made them rich in the first place.

So come on political parties get your act together grow a back bone. Do something which would benefit the country 50% tax on transfer fees.



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LATEST YOUGOV POLLING 29TH JAN


  Con 35%, Lab 38%, LD 10%, UKIP 11%; APP -21

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/bqqj8787jg/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-290114.pdf
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Wednesday, 29 January 2014

What a difference 4 years makes


POLL FROM MAY 2010 & POLL FROM JAN 2014
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WYTHENSHAWE & SALE EAST LATEST BETTING ODDS

I spotted the spelling mistake thanks
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Just 7 Candidates for the Wythenshawe & Sale East By election

STATEMENT OF PERSONS NOMINATED

The time has passed and we have the list below for those who will be contending the by election.

UKIP - John Bickley

Mike Kane - Labour

Daniel Critchlow - Conservatives.

Eddy O'Sullivan - BNP

Lib Dems have selected Cllr Mary di Mauro

"Captain Chaplington-Smythe" for the OMRLP

Nigel Woodcock - Green Party

http://www.manchester.gov.uk/downloads/download/5715/statement_of_persons_nominated-wythenshawe_and_sale_east_constituency
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How many voters have parties retained?

I did a simple calculation from todays yougov poll. As with all the polls it has done in the past, it asks who you voted for in the 2010 General Election. It then asks who you will vote for now.

So 14% of Conservative voters from 2010 don't know or won't vote they say, this leaves 86% then 77% of this remaining 86% will continue to vote Conservative which is 66.2% So out of 1000 voters 662 will vote Conservative again.

For Labour they had 15% DK/WV and then 82% of that figure
For Libdems it was 23 % DK/WV and then they have retained 33% of the remainder

Other useful posts

FOUR HALF MILLION VOTERS FOR UKIP

The Reading East effect

Values as below
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PMQ's 29th January 2014

Get Adobe Flash player
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YOUGOV POLLING 27TH-28TH JAN

 Con 34%, Lab 37%, LD 9%, UKIP 12%; APP -21

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/fs69p5dm65/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-280114.pdf
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Most likely to vote for

Now this is just what I take from the figures much like a fortune teller takes from the tea leaves just to let you know.

Labours most likely voter if taken by where they poll highest. Would be a female from the North of England aged 18-24 if she was from ethnic back ground then that propensity to vote Labour would be doubled.

As for the Conservatives they would be getting their most likely voter from the South of England aged over 60 and male and white ethnic group.

So the curious extrapolation is that Labours most likely voter comes from a section which is least likely to vote 18-24 year old and female, and the Conservative voter comes from the most likely to vote over 60 and Male.

Also if Labour are dependent on the 18-24 section they are also the most likely to change their mind and vote for an alternative from the main parties such as Greens or Respect.

The Conservatives only threat comes from UKIP which is eating greatly into their core vote.


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Tuesday, 28 January 2014

COM RES POLLING

http://ht.ly/t1mKt
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YOUGOV POLLING 26th-27th JAN

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/c02qv4e31h/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-270114.pdf
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Monday, 27 January 2014

LATEST POPULUS POLLING 24th-26th JAN


http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/Online-VI-27-01-2014.pdf
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"Captain Chaplington-Smythe" for the OMRLP

We at the Loony are ordinary working people in the real world. With bills to pay and children to feed. We stand before you in the hope that you will give us your vote so we can go to parliament and make a difference. Make this place a better place. We are the prominent alternative party of Great Britain. We come from all walks of life. Ask us anything about our policies and we will give you a straight answer. Please, please don't waste your vote because you think it's not worth it labour will get in anyway! Your vote was fought for, people lost their lives to secure you that right. All we ask is you consider wether you want more of the same or you want to make British political history by voting into parliament the first ever Loony MP. We aren't professional politicians that went to Eton or Oxford we are hard working men and women that want the chance to get up and make a difference for our society. May the force be with you 

 

Source 

 He is the candidate for the Official Monster Raving Loony Party in the Wythenshawe & East Sale By election.

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IS PORTSMOUTH SOUTH BY ELECTION MORE LIKELY?

A Liberal Democrat councillor has quit in protest at her group's decision to keep Mike Hancock in the cabinet.
Councillor Eleanor Scott resigned her environment and community safety brief on Portsmouth City Council.

Ms Scott, who remains as a Lib Dem councillor, said: "We need to run a city, not a game show.
"I hope that others involved in the group's decision on Friday will reflect on their positions, and do the right thing."

 The BBC understands a vote among Lib Dem members ended 10-10 with Mr Hancock keeping his job as planning, regeneration and economic development chief because the chairman abstained.
The group said it was also continuing its process of selecting its 2015 parliamentary candidates for Portsmouth along with May's upcoming council elections - both of which Mr Hancock could stand in for re-election.
But he faces being deselected as a Lib Dem due to his current suspension.


Source
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Rufus Hound to stand for NHAPARTY in Euro elections

The comedian and actor Rufus Hound is to stand in the next European elections to campaign against changes to the NHS.
The former stand-up comic is running for the National Health Action Party (NHA) - formed by medical professionals to oppose health policy in England.
Hound, 34, said he had already been "tweeting endlessly" about "dangers the NHS currently faces", but had now decided to become a politician.
He campaigned for the Liberal Democrats at the last election.

“Start Quote

The lives of our children, of our grandchildren, of our great-grandchildren may very well depend on it”
Rufus Hound
"I think I'm going to run as an MEP," he told ITV's Jonathan Ross Show.
"I'm going to run for the NHA because the NHS is being privatised."
The single-issue party was set up by Dr Richard Taylor, a former independent MP, to campaign against the government's Health and Social Care Act.
Dr Taylor has said the party plans to field 50 candidates in the 2015 general election.
'Take a stand' Hound, who is due to star in a West End musical alongside actor Robert Lindsey, said he would rather be concentrating on that as it was "much more fun".
Writing on his blog he said: "There's no way I should be an MEP. I'm not smart enough, or Machiavellian enough, to survive in modern politics."
But describing the NHS as "one of the single greatest achievements of any civilisation, ever, anywhere in the history of the world", he added: "We can't afford not to take a stand.
"The lives of our children, of our grandchildren, of our great-grandchildren may very well depend on it."
The government's NHS shake-up came into force in England last April.
The Health and Social Care Act gave more responsibility for spending to GP-led groups but critics argue it will fragment the NHS and lead to a more market-led service.
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Sunday, 26 January 2014

7 CANDIDATES SO FAR FOR WYTHENSHAWE & SALE EAST

In order of them declaring their nomination

UKIP - John Bickley

East Sale Liberation Front - Ciaron Goggins

Mike Kane - Labour

Daniel Critchlow - Conservatives.

Eddy O'Sullivan - BNP

Lib Dems have selected Cllr Mary di Mauro

"Captain Chaplington-Smythe" for the OMRLP

A list of candidates for the Wythenshawe and Sale East by-election will be published at 5pm on Wednesday 29 January. 


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YOUGOV POLL 23-24 JAN

Lab 39 (up 1)
Con 32 (down 3)
UKIP 13 (up 1)
LibDem 9 (up 1)

Approval -21 (up 1)




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Friday, 24 January 2014

5 CANDIDATES DECLARED FOR WYTHENSHAWE & SALE EAST BY ELECTION

UKIP have chosen former Labour supporter John Bickley to fight the Wythenshawe and Sale East by-election, the Times has reported.
Mr Bickley, aged 60, grew up in Wythenshawe and was an executive in a blue chip company before launching his own business.
Source

Also we have the, East Sale Liberation Front - Ciaron Goggins
Source

Mike Kane has been selected for Labour

Daniel Critchlow has been selected for the Conservatives.

Eddy O'Sullivan - BNP
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Cowdenbeath MSP by-election result


  • Alex Rowley (Lab) - 11,192 votes
  • Natalie McGarry (SNP) - 5,704 votes
  • Dave Dempsey (Con) - 1,893 votes
  • Denise Baykal (UKIP) - 610 votes
  • Jade Holden (Lib Dem) - 425 votes
  • Stuart Graham (Victims Final Right) - 187 votes
  • James Trolland (SDA) - 51 votes
Labour majority - 5,488 (27.36%)
11.25% swing SNP to Lab
Turnout 20,062 (34.78%)
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Thursday, 23 January 2014

The ABC of UKIP Voters (Anyone But Cameron)


ComRes logo
POLLWATCH: The ABC of UKIP Voters (Anyone But Cameron)
This weekend’s ComRes poll for the Sunday Mirror and Independent on Sunday carried the surprise finding that UKIP is now the nation’s favourite political party.  According to Twitter, this caused reactions ranging from celebration to exasperation to astonishment. But how UKIP gained this position is an interesting story in itself and one which may have serious implications for the other parties.
The graph below shows the favouriblity ratings of each of the main parties broken down by voting intention. The coloured bars represent the voters of each of the main parties and the size of bar represents how favourable and unfavourable each set of voters are to each party.
As can be seen, UKIP voters (90%) are slightly more favourable towards their own party than Conservative (80%), Labour (74%) and Liberal Democrat (71%) voters are towards theirs. This would suggest that UKIP voters are more zealous than others when it comes to their political allegiance, whereas the Tories, Labour and the Lib Dems have to deal with relatively higher proportions of voters who are less loyal in their support.
Party favourability ratings

But crucially, UKIP also receives higher favourability ratings than the Conservatives or Labour among other parties’ voters. For example, nearly a quarter of Conservative voters (23%) say that they are favourable towards UKIP, compared to only 15% of UKIP voters who are favourable towards the Tories. Far from seeing UKIP voters return to the Tory fold as the election approaches, this suggests that there is greater scope for the Tories to lose yet more votes to UKIP than to win lost votes back.
Neither is this going to be helped by the Conservatives’ current strategy of turning the election into a head-to-head between David Cameron and Ed Miliband. Among UKIP voters, the Conservatives have a very healthy lead over Labour in terms of net favourability (29 points). However, despite just 3% of UKIP voters being favourable towards Mr Miliband and the Labour leader’s dire ratings generally, there is no advantage in framing it as a leadership battle: a Miliband/Cameron head-to-head has a net benefit to the Conservatives of +1. In other words, relative to his party, the Prime Minister performs pretty much just as poorly among UKIP voters as much-maligned “Red Ed”.
Generally, although Mr Cameron is the only leader to outscore his party among British people as a whole, this is far from being the case among UKIP voters.  In a measure of just how tough it will be for him to persuade UKIP voters to back the Conservatives in 2015, only 17% of UKIP voters have a favourable view of Mr Cameron, compared with fully 78% of Conservative voters.  It seems implausible to imagine that UKIP voters will return to the Conservative fold in any number while David Cameron remains Party leader.
But the maths are against the Conservatives anyway.  The poll shows that even in the highly unlikely event that every single current UKIP voter who is favourable towards Mr Cameron ended up voting for the Conservatives at the next election, it still would not be enough to overtake Labour’s current vote share, let alone to give the party an overall majority.
“Ahh,” some readers may be thinking, “but Labour’s vote share is not going to stay at its current level.  It is likely to decline when some of its current supporters return to the Lib Dems before the election.” Well maybe, but as the graph above shows, current Labour voters are less favourable towards the Lib Dems (11%) than Conservative voters (17%) are.
There is actually a broader link between the two Coalition parties: Mr Cameron’s clear advantage as the nation’s most favourable leader is almost exclusively due to the opinions of Liberal Democrat voters. Whereas Mr Cameron does not score significantly better than his party among Labour, UKIP or Conservative voters, Liberal Democrat voters are twice as likely to view him favourably (23%) than they are the Conservative Party generally (11%).
Net favourability
This causes a significant problem for the Prime Minister in his attempts to stem the UKIP threat. As the graph above shows, the party towards which UKIP voters are most unfavourable is the Europhile, socially liberal Liberal Democrats, while the party to which Lib Dem voters are most unfavourable is the Eurosceptic, socially conservative UKIP. Therefore as Mr Cameron increasingly targets UKIP voters, he is spending more and more energy focussing on voters that are at best naturally sceptical towards him, at worst apoplectic, all the while alienating potential voters from the Liberal Democrats that are inclined towards him.
Such a strategy is likely to do him no favours in an election. If the Conservatives are to win a majority, Mr Cameron may have to give up on UKIP or his party must give up on him.

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Research Analyst

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Making plans for 2014?
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LATEST YOU GOV POLL 21st-22nd JAN

 Con 32%, Lab 40%, LD 8%, UKIP 12%; APP -26

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/k6ywanudl3/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-220114.pdf
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COWDENBEATH BY ELECTION CANDIDATES & ODDS

Polling stations in the Scottish parliamentary constituency will be open from 07:00 until 22:00.
There are seven candidates taking part in the contest.
Counting of the votes will take place on Thursday night after the close of polls.
The candidates Denise Baykal - UK Independence Party.
Dave Dempsey - Scottish Conservatives.
Stuart Graham - The Victims Final Right Party.
Jade Holden - Scottish Liberal Democrats.
Natalie McGarry - Scottish National Party.
Alex Rowley - Scottish Labour.
James Trolland - Scottish Democratic Alliance.
The result BBC Scotland will provide live coverage of the result online after 22.00.
There will also be a Newsnight Scotland by-election special on BBC2 Scotland, starting at 23:00.
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PMQ's 22nd January 2014

Get Adobe Flash player
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2 CANDIDATES DECLARED SO FAR FOR WYTHENSHAWE & SALE EAST

UKIP have chosen former Labour supporter John Bickley to fight the Wythenshawe and Sale East by-election, the Times has reported.
Mr Bickley, aged 60, grew up in Wythenshawe and was an executive in a blue chip company before launching his own business.
Source

Also we have the, East Sale Liberation Front - Ciaron Goggins
Source

2 down just how many entrants will we have?
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Wednesday, 22 January 2014

HAPPY 1ST ANNIVERSARY

This time last year the very first post was published for this blog. To celebrate we have been running a poll. I would like to thank all those who publicised and re tweeted the link. We got 647 votes cast and the result is as follows. Now of course there was no weighting no tally sheets and it was just for fun. But it surely suggests that the two/three party system we live in could do with a shake up and proportionality representation would help the diverse views we all have. But thanks again for takin part and we look forward to the year ahead.

PARTY - VOTES CAST

LABOUR 94
UKIP 86
THE GREEN PARTY 78
TUSC 57
JUSTICE 4 MEN & BOYS PARTY 54
THE PIRATE PARTY 53
CLASS WAR PARTY 53
CONSERVATIVES 34
NONE OF THE ABOVE 32
LIB DEMS 30
SCOTTISH SOCIALIST PARTY 21
MEBYON KERNOW 16
NHA PARTY 9
PLAID CYMRU 9
SNP 8
BEER,BACCY&CRUMPET PARTY 5
THE IDLE TOAD PARTY 2
RESPECT 2
LOONY PARTY 1
TUV 1
UNITED PEOPLES PARTY 1
BNP 1

SADLY NO VOTES FOR
ALLIANCE PARTY, CHRISTIAN PARTY, DUP, ELVIS LOVES PETS, ENGLISH DEMOCRATS,
NEWCASTLE FIRST, NI21, PDPGB. SCOTTISH DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE, SINN FEIN, THE JUSTICE PARTY, THE PEACE PARTY, UUP
Who would you vote for right now?
ALLIANCE PARTY 0% (0)
BEER, BACCY & CRUMPET PARTY 1% (5)
BNP 0% (1)
CHRISTIAN PARTY 0% (0)
CLASS WAR PARTY 8% (53)
CONSERVATIVES 5% (34)
DEMOCRATIC UNIONIST PARTY 0% (0)
ELVIS LOVES PETS PARTY 0% (0)
ENGLISH DEMOCRATS 0% (0)
GREEN PARTY 12% (78)
JUSTICE 4 MEN AND BOYS PARTY 8% (54)
LABOUR 15% (94)
LIBERAL DEMOCRATS 5% (30)
MEBYON KERNOW 2% (16)
NHA PARTY 1% (9)
NEWCASTLE FIRST 0% (0)
NI21 0% (0)
OFFICIAL MONSTER RAVING LOONY PARTY 0% (1)
PEOPLES DEMOCRATIC PARTY OF GREAT BRITAIN 0% (0)
PLAID CYMRU 1% (9)
RESPECT 0% (2)
SCOTTISH DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE 0% (0)
SCOTTISH SOCIALIST PARTY 3% (21)
SINN FEIN 0% (0)
SNP 1% (8)
THE IDLE TOAD PARTY 0% (2)
THE JUSTICE PARTY 0% (0)
THE PEACE PARTY 0% (0)
THE PIRATE PARTY 8% (53)
TUSC 9% (57)
TUV 0% (1)
UKIP 13% (86)
UNITED PEOPLES PARTY 0% (1)
ULSTER UNIONIST PARTY 0% (0)
NONE OF THE ABOVE 5% (32)
Total votes: 647
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Tuesday, 21 January 2014

THE LAST DAY OF VOTING

To celebrate the first anniversary of this blog we are holding a poll, we have nearly 400 votes cast so far, which I thank all those who have taken part.

Today is the last day of polling with the results to be released tomorrow on the Anniversary of the blog.

***UPDATE 19.30***

I will be closing the poll shortly Thank you to the 600+ people who have taken the time to vote. 

***update 21.30***
THE POLL IS NOW CLOSED THANK YOU FOR ALL THOSE WHO HAVE VOTED
RESULTS WILL BE PUBLISHED TOMORROW ON OUR ANNIVERSARY.

Please feel free to take part and to share.

You will find the poll here  http://www.easypolls.net/poll.html?p=52d79dd4e4b08a14ac5d53c2


or at the side >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

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YOUGOV POLL 19th-20th JAN

Update: Labour lead at 8 - Latest YouGov / The Sun results 20th Jan - Con 32%, Lab 40%, LD 11%, UKIP 12%; APP -29


http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/11n73ifhmv/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-200114.pdf

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Monday, 20 January 2014

Wythenshawe and Sale East By-Election 13th FEB

It seems as with most things, the media get the scoop before it is officially announced.

Plus can you answer my question? What rhymes with...



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LATEST POLITICAL BETTING

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Most valued seats - GE2010

Constituency name Spending per vote
Luton South £3.07
Aberconwy £2.18
Barking £2.17
Poplar and Limehouse £2.14
Northampton North £2.07
Hampstead and Kilburn £2.02
Buckingham £1.99
Norwich South £1.99
Brighton, Pavilion £1.99
Bethnal Green and Bow £1.97
Source: Electoral Reform Society

http://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/images/dynamicImages/file/ERS_Penny%20for%20your%20vote_Final.pdf
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