Wythenshawe and Sale East: Ward Breakdown

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk  Is a great mine of information

This page gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Wythenshawe and Sale East at the general election of 2010. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2010, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.
Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). Such wards are shown divided into several parts, called [1], [2], and so on.
Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2010 from the period 2007-2011. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Seat: Wythenshawe and Sale East

Workings for Wythenshawe and Sale East

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Wythenshawe and Sale East. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. Details of the transfer calculation are given below this table.

Seat: Wythenshawe and Sale East				Actual Results				Turnout-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Election Year	Electorate 2010	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Manchester	Baguley	2010	10,608	777	0	1,178	2,854	924	0	1,401	3,393	5,718
Manchester	Brooklands	2010	10,300	1,534	2,633	1,061	465	1,496	2,568	1,035	453	5,552
Manchester	Northenden	2010	10,733	546	2,478	2,503	399	533	2,419	2,444	390	5,786
Manchester	Sharston	2010	11,209	933	0	930	3,260	1,100	0	1,097	3,845	6,042
Manchester	Woodhouse Park	2010	9,594	608	2,428	626	528	750	2,997	773	652	5,172
Trafford	Brooklands	2010	7,908	2,648	1,444	1,389	179	1,994	1,087	1,046	135	4,262
Trafford	Priory	2010	7,762	1,618	2,087	1,345	263	1,274	1,643	1,059	207	4,183
Trafford	Sale Moor	2010	7,488	1,668	2,032	1,068	198	1,356	1,652	868	161	4,037
	Total		75,602					9,427	12,366	9,723	9,236	40,752

The transfer table below shows the votes cast in the seat of Wythenshawe and Sale East at the general election, as well as the total local turnout-adjusted votes. The number of votes to transfer, shown in the fourth and fifth columns, are the difference between the general and local votes. Strong parties will have votes transferred away, and weak parties will have votes transferred into them. The final column describes how votes will be transferred away from or into that party on a ward-by-ward basis. If a party is too strong, it will lose a percentage of its votes in each ward which go into that ward's transfer pool. If a party is too weak, it will gain votes from each ward's transfer pool in proportion to the number of transfer votes it needs over the whole seat.

Party	General Election 2010 Votes	Local Election Turnout-adjusted Votes	Votes to transfer away	Votes to transfer into	Ward Transfers needed
CON	10,412	9,427	0	985	Transfer in 14.9% (= 985 / 6606) of ward's transfer pool votes
LAB	17,987	12,366	0	5,621	Transfer in 85.1% (= 5621 / 6606) of ward's transfer pool votes
LIB	9,107	9,723	616	0	Transfer away 6.3% (= 616 / 9723) of ward's LIB votes
OTH	3,245	9,236	5,991	0	Transfer away 64.9% (= 5991 / 9236) of ward's OTH votes
Total	40,751	40,752	6,606	6,606

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Main table for Wythenshawe and Sale East

The main table shows the general election transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the seat of Wythenshawe and Sale East, as well as the predicted election result.

Seat: Wythenshawe and Sale East			Est. 2010 General Election Results					Predicted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2010	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Manchester	Baguley	10,608	1,265	1,948	1,312	1,192	5,717	960	2,577	368	1,813	5,718
Manchester	Brooklands	10,300	1,550	2,874	969	159	5,552	1,176	3,413	272	691	5,552
Manchester	Northenden	10,733	594	2,766	2,289	137	5,786	451	3,667	642	1,026	5,786
Manchester	Sharston	11,209	1,482	2,181	1,027	1,351	6,041	1,124	2,733	288	1,896	6,041
Manchester	Woodhouse Park	9,594	820	3,399	724	229	5,172	622	3,761	203	586	5,172
Trafford	Brooklands	7,908	2,017	1,218	980	47	4,262	1,530	1,818	275	639	4,262
Trafford	Priory	7,762	1,304	1,814	992	73	4,183	989	2,332	278	584	4,183
Trafford	Sale Moor	7,488	1,380	1,788	813	57	4,038	1,047	2,250	228	513	4,038
	Total	75,602	10,412	17,988	9,106	3,245	40,752	7,899	22,551	2,554	7,748	40,752

After transfer adjustment, the totals for each party over all the wards match the general election vote in the seat.