Thursday 9 January 2014

Wythenshawe and Sale East: Ward Breakdown

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk  Is a great mine of information

This page gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Wythenshawe and Sale East at the general election of 2010. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2010, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.
Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). Such wards are shown divided into several parts, called [1], [2], and so on.
Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2010 from the period 2007-2011. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Seat: Wythenshawe and Sale East

Workings for Wythenshawe and Sale East
The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Wythenshawe and Sale East. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. Details of the transfer calculation are given below this table.
Seat: Wythenshawe and Sale EastActual ResultsTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
Electorate
2010
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
OTH
Votes
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
ManchesterBaguley201010,60877701,1782,85492401,4013,3935,718
ManchesterBrooklands201010,3001,5342,6331,0614651,4962,5681,0354535,552
ManchesterNorthenden201010,7335462,4782,5033995332,4192,4443905,786
ManchesterSharston201011,20993309303,2601,10001,0973,8456,042
ManchesterWoodhouse Park20109,5946082,4286265287502,9977736525,172
TraffordBrooklands20107,9082,6481,4441,3891791,9941,0871,0461354,262
TraffordPriory20107,7621,6182,0871,3452631,2741,6431,0592074,183
TraffordSale Moor20107,4881,6682,0321,0681981,3561,6528681614,037
 Total 75,602    9,42712,3669,7239,23640,752
The transfer table below shows the votes cast in the seat of Wythenshawe and Sale East at the general election, as well as the total local turnout-adjusted votes. The number of votes to transfer, shown in the fourth and fifth columns, are the difference between the general and local votes. Strong parties will have votes transferred away, and weak parties will have votes transferred into them. The final column describes how votes will be transferred away from or into that party on a ward-by-ward basis. If a party is too strong, it will lose a percentage of its votes in each ward which go into that ward's transfer pool. If a party is too weak, it will gain votes from each ward's transfer pool in proportion to the number of transfer votes it needs over the whole seat.

PartyGeneral
Election 2010
Votes
Local Election
Turnout-adjusted
Votes
Votes to
transfer
away
Votes to
transfer
into
Ward Transfers needed
CON10,4129,4270985Transfer in 14.9% (= 985 / 6606) of ward's transfer pool votes
LAB17,98712,36605,621Transfer in 85.1% (= 5621 / 6606) of ward's transfer pool votes
LIB9,1079,7236160Transfer away 6.3% (= 616 / 9723) of ward's LIB votes
OTH3,2459,2365,9910Transfer away 64.9% (= 5991 / 9236) of ward's OTH votes
Total40,75140,7526,6066,606 

Main table for Wythenshawe and Sale East

The main table shows the general election transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the seat of Wythenshawe and Sale East, as well as the predicted election result.
Seat: Wythenshawe and Sale EastEst. 2010 General Election ResultsPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2010
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
ManchesterBaguley10,6081,2651,9481,3121,1925,7179602,5773681,8135,718
ManchesterBrooklands10,3001,5502,8749691595,5521,1763,4132726915,552
ManchesterNorthenden10,7335942,7662,2891375,7864513,6676421,0265,786
ManchesterSharston11,2091,4822,1811,0271,3516,0411,1242,7332881,8966,041
ManchesterWoodhouse Park9,5948203,3997242295,1726223,7612035865,172
TraffordBrooklands7,9082,0171,218980474,2621,5301,8182756394,262
TraffordPriory7,7621,3041,814992734,1839892,3322785844,183
TraffordSale Moor7,4881,3801,788813574,0381,0472,2502285134,038
 Total75,60210,41217,9889,1063,24540,7527,89922,5512,5547,74840,752
After transfer adjustment, the totals for each party over all the wards match the general election vote in the seat.

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