It has been a while and this is the first of 2014 due to the low levels of council by elections. But I always put more faith in actual votes cast than weighted and purchased opinion polls.
Click the links for result information.
6th March 2014 5 by elections
12th / 13th March 2014 10 by elections
20th March 2014 4 by elections
But as you can see above over a 2 week period there has been 19 council by elections with 24,376 votes cast, disappointingly down from the 34,708 votes when these same by elections were last held.
How the votes were cast when all these by elections were last held.
Conservatives 13,325 votes 38.4%
Labour 10,992 votes 31.7%
Liberal Democrats 5,149 votes 14.9%
UKIP 2,358 votes 6.8%
Independents 1,317 votes 3.4%
Green Party 1,035 votes 3%
Others 532 votes 1.8%
When these by elections were held between the 6th March & 20th March this year this is how the votes were cast.
Conservatives 8,033 votes 32.9%
Labour 7,087 votes 29.1%
UKIP 3,905 votes 16.1%
Liberal Democrats 3,000 votes 12.3%
Independents 1,756 votes 7.2%
Green Party 513 votes 2.1%
Others 82 votes 0.3%
So only UKIP and the Independents actually increased their actual vote count, both of which was done by fielding more candidates. The biggest loser seems to be democracy as 10,000 less people voted.
CON -5.5% LAB -2.6% UKIP +9.3% LD -2.6% INDY +3.8% GREENS -0.9% OTHERS -1.5%