Sunday 1 June 2014

General Election Prediction according to Electoral Calculus

Current Prediction: Labour majority 28

Party2010 Votes2010 SeatsPred VotesPred Seats
CON36.97%30731.97%257
LAB29.66%25834.33%339
LIB23.56%57 8.39%18
UKIP 3.17%015.73%0
NAT 2.26%9 3.16%17
MIN 4.37%19 6.42%19
Prediction based on opinion polls from 09 May 14 to 30 May 14, sampling 10,185 people.

Probability of possible outcomes

Conservative majority
10%
Labour majority
57%
Con/Lib coalition
5%
Lab/Lib coalition
12%
Lib choice of coalition
0%
No overall control
14%
The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election.


Source of information

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

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