Wednesday, 30 April 2014
COMRES - Breakdown of their latest EURO POLL
Thank you to everyone who re tweeted and have since followed me on Twitter, Last count was over 300 interactions. Glad to be of service.
Comres euro polling
#UKIP 38%
#LABOUR 27%
# CONSERVATIVES 18%
#LIBDEMS 8%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) April 30, 2014
contra euro poll
32% of voters believe UKIP is racist
33% Believe that #UKIP is more honest than all others.
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) April 30, 2014
Comres euro poll
Eastern England
#UKIP 53%
#CONSERVATIVES 18%
#LABOUR 15%
#LIBDEMS 9%
#GREENS 3%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) April 30, 2014
Comres euro poll
Men (Women)
#UKIP 42% (31%)
#LABOUR 27% (27%)
#CONSERVATIVE 15% (24%)
#LIBDEMS 6% (10%)
certain to vote
Men 47%
Women 42%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) April 30, 2014
Comres euro poll
Aged 65+ (18-24)
#UKIP 46% (33%)
#TORIES 24% (14%)
#LABOUR 16% (37%)
#LIBDEM 7% (7%)
100% to vote
65+ 54%
18-24 =21%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) April 30, 2014
Comres euro poll
North East England
#LABOUR 38%
#UKIP 34%
#CONSERVATIVES 19%
#LIBDEMS 5%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) April 30, 2014
Comres euro poll
West Midlands
#UKIP 52%
#LABOUR 27%
#CONSERVATIVES 16%
#LIBDEMS 5%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) April 30, 2014
Comres euro poll
Wales
#LABOUR 36%
#UKIP 29%
#PLAIDCYMRU 21%
#CONSERVATIVES 11%
#LIBDEMS 3%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) April 30, 2014
Comres euro poll
East Midlands
#LABOUR 36%
#UKIP 36%
#CONSERVATIVES 22%
#LIBDEMS 4%
#GREENS 2%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) April 30, 2014
Comres euro poll
South West England
#UKIP 44%
#LABOUR 25%
#CONSERVATIVES 14
#GREENS 10%
#LIBDEMS 6%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) April 30, 2014
Comres euro poll
England
#UKIP 41%
#LABOUR 26%
#CONSERVATIVES 19%
#LIBDEMS 8%
#GREENS 4%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) April 30, 2014
Comres euro poll
Scotland
#SNP 31%
#LABOUR 30%
#CONSERVATIVES 13%
#UKIP 12%
#LIBDEMS 9%
#GREENS 5%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) April 30, 2014
http://www.comres.co.uk/poll/1167/itv-news-index-european-election-poll.htm
BREAKDOWN OF TNS BMRB EURO POLLING
TNS / BMRB EURO POLLING
#UKIP 36%
#LABOUR 27%
#CONSERVATIVES 18%
#LIBDEMS 10%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) April 30, 2014
TNS EURO POLL
Men (Women) voting intentions
#UKIP 38% (34%)
#LABOUR 23% (31%)
#CONSERVATIVES 19% (18%)
#LIBDEMS 11% (8%)
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) April 30, 2014
TNS EURO POLL
SOUTH (NORTH) of England voting
#UKIP 43% (32%)
#LABOUR 21% (34%)
#CONSERVATIVES 20% (14%)
#LIBDEMS 11% (8%)
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) April 30, 2014
TNS EURO POLL
Only 13% of over 65's say they won't be voting
Those who will vote
#UKIP 41%
#CONSERVATIVES 22%
#LABOUR 21%
#LIBDEMS 5%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) April 30, 2014
TNS EURO POLL
47% of 18-24 years olds won't be voting
Those which are.
#LABOUR 48%
#CONSERVATIVES 19%
#UKIP 18%
others 15%
#LIBDEMS 0
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) April 30, 2014
http://worldwide.tns-global.com/groupmarketing/enewsletter/marketing/imgs/TNSUK_EUVotingIntentions_DataTables2014Apr29.pdf
YOUGOV - What do you think of your party leader?
Which of the following qualities do you think he has?
A natural Leader
Cameron 13%
Miliband 3%
Clegg 3%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) April 30, 2014
Which of the following qualities do you think he has?
In touch with the concerns of ordinary people
Miliband 20%
Clegg 8%
Cameron 5%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) April 30, 2014
Yougov
Which of the following qualities do you think he has?
Has no qualities
Clegg 60%
Miliband 54%
Cameron 48%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) April 30, 2014
9% of #Labour voters think Miliband is a natural Leader.
11% of #Libdems think same of Clegg
31% of #Conservatives think same of Cameron
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) April 30, 2014
41% of #LIBDEM voters think #CLEGG is honest
39% of #CONSERVATIVES think the same of #CAMERON
35% of #LABOUR think the same of #MILIBAND
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) April 30, 2014
9% of #LABOUR voters find #MILIBAND charismatic
11% of #LIBDEMS think the same of #CLEGG
29% of #CONSERVATIVES think the same of #CAMERON
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) April 30, 2014
51% of #LABOUR voters say #MILIBAND is in touch with the ordinary person
29% #LIBDEMS say same of #CLEGG
16% #TORIES say same of #CAMERON
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) April 30, 2014
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/8cm4ggnrez/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-290414.pdf
Tuesday, 29 April 2014
NEWARK BY ELECTION (BETTING ODDS / FORM / CANDIDATES)
***UPDATE 8.18am***
Farage won't be standing in Newark
Well things are moving fast as 2 candidates have been chosen already
for Conservatives and Labour
twitter.com/RobertJenrick
twitter.com/MichaelPayneUK
The bookies have the odds.
Conservatives 4/5
UKIP 2/1
Labour 4/1
Lib Dems 66/1
and Andyajs has done the form guide showing General Election 2010 versus CC elections 2013
I've done a few calculations using last year's local election results.
The boundaries of the CC divisions don’t match up tidily with the constituency, but these are basically the ones that comprise the Newark constituency:
Bassetlaw: Tuxford.
Newark & Sherwood: Balderton, Collingham, Farndon&Muskham, Newark East, Newark West, Southwell&Caunton.
Rushcliffe: Bingham.
Votes, Newark, 2013 CC elections:
Con: 10,750 (8/8 contested)
Lab: 5,153 (8/8)
UKIP: 3,520 (7/8)
LD: 3,028 (7/8)
Ind: 1,846 (2/8)
Total: 24,297
Percentages:
Con: 44.2%
Lab: 21.2%
UKIP: 14.5%
LD: 12.5%
Ind: 7.6%
Changes from the 2010 general election:
Con: -9.7%
Lab: -1.1%
UKIP: +10.7%
LD: -7.5%
Ind: +7.6%
Not completely accurate because a small portion (in terms of population) of the Radcliffe on Trent CC division is included in the Newark constituency, although most of it is in Rushcliffe. Also a small bit of Tuxford is in Bassetlaw.
2013 CC results:
docs.google.com/spreadsheet/lv?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dGxoSGFQaWg1V2tyYklHcXFkTm9LTXc&pli=1#gid=0
Farage won't be standing in Newark
Well things are moving fast as 2 candidates have been chosen already
for Conservatives and Labour
twitter.com/RobertJenrick
twitter.com/MichaelPayneUK
The bookies have the odds.
Conservatives 4/5
UKIP 2/1
Labour 4/1
Lib Dems 66/1
and Andyajs has done the form guide showing General Election 2010 versus CC elections 2013
I've done a few calculations using last year's local election results.
The boundaries of the CC divisions don’t match up tidily with the constituency, but these are basically the ones that comprise the Newark constituency:
Bassetlaw: Tuxford.
Newark & Sherwood: Balderton, Collingham, Farndon&Muskham, Newark East, Newark West, Southwell&Caunton.
Rushcliffe: Bingham.
Votes, Newark, 2013 CC elections:
Con: 10,750 (8/8 contested)
Lab: 5,153 (8/8)
UKIP: 3,520 (7/8)
LD: 3,028 (7/8)
Ind: 1,846 (2/8)
Total: 24,297
Percentages:
Con: 44.2%
Lab: 21.2%
UKIP: 14.5%
LD: 12.5%
Ind: 7.6%
Changes from the 2010 general election:
Con: -9.7%
Lab: -1.1%
UKIP: +10.7%
LD: -7.5%
Ind: +7.6%
Not completely accurate because a small portion (in terms of population) of the Radcliffe on Trent CC division is included in the Newark constituency, although most of it is in Rushcliffe. Also a small bit of Tuxford is in Bassetlaw.
2013 CC results:
docs.google.com/spreadsheet/lv?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dGxoSGFQaWg1V2tyYklHcXFkTm9LTXc&pli=1#gid=0
PREDICTION FOR UK MEPS USING YOU GOV POLLING
Now I will be the first to admit that when you ask someone on how you are going to do at something, if you have a vested interest you will put a rose tinted view on things. So the piece below is taken from the UKIP DAILY and obviously is going to be pro UKIP. Now if you have an alternative view and would like me to post your predictions using your own methodology then I would gladly post it for you.
Below is the article, having used a breakdown I posted on Sunday YOUGOV EURO POLL
Be glad of your thoughts
Source
YouGov published a Euro Election poll over the weekend where they broke the results down by area of the country. These areas did not correspond exactly with the regions, they were coarser, but the results can be used to attempt to predict the number of MEPs that may be returned in each region.
I have a workbook which calculates the distribution of seats based on the d’Hondt system used in the European Elections. The results of my analysis of the YouGov poll is shown below – the regions are grouped by the areas that YouGov used, the outline results of their poll more conveniently reviewed on the UK General Election 2015 Site. Hence, the predicted percentages for some regions will be identical – clearly, the actual results will vary more between regions, but it’s the best data we have at present.
What conclusions can be drawn from this? For a start, it will be a close run thing in SW England and SE England where Conservatives and Labour are polling the same on 22%. They each could get 1 or 2 seats, depending on which one pushes slightly ahead of the other, and in SW England that outcome may affect whether UKIP gets 2 or 3 seats. Will Gawain Towler get a MEP job in Brussels or not?
The result in NW England is surprising, returning 4 MEPs, which matches that of the SE Region, which has 10 slots instead of the North West’s 8. This means that Shneur Odze gets a job in Brussels, as well as Paul Nuttall, Louise Bours and Steven Woolfe.
The UKIP poll for the North of England, 35%, equalling the South of England, the two most pro-UKIP regions, shows that UKIP’s strategy of working hard to win over the Labour voter in the north is working, where UKIP is ahead of Labour on 33%.
The Liberal Democrats will get slaughtered, of course. They presently have 12 MEPs, and will be reduced to 4 – so much for Nick Clegg’s committing his party to the EU. The Greens will be reduced from 2 to 1 MEP, whilst the SNP will maintain their 2.
History tells us that our poll ratings climb as the election approaches, and there is some evidence that UKIP voters are more likely to vote in low turnout polls. At the moment UKIP is in the lead (based on the poll) with at least 28 MEPs, but it could go higher. Watch this space.
Below is the article, having used a breakdown I posted on Sunday YOUGOV EURO POLL
Be glad of your thoughts
Source
YouGov published a Euro Election poll over the weekend where they broke the results down by area of the country. These areas did not correspond exactly with the regions, they were coarser, but the results can be used to attempt to predict the number of MEPs that may be returned in each region.
I have a workbook which calculates the distribution of seats based on the d’Hondt system used in the European Elections. The results of my analysis of the YouGov poll is shown below – the regions are grouped by the areas that YouGov used, the outline results of their poll more conveniently reviewed on the UK General Election 2015 Site. Hence, the predicted percentages for some regions will be identical – clearly, the actual results will vary more between regions, but it’s the best data we have at present.
What conclusions can be drawn from this? For a start, it will be a close run thing in SW England and SE England where Conservatives and Labour are polling the same on 22%. They each could get 1 or 2 seats, depending on which one pushes slightly ahead of the other, and in SW England that outcome may affect whether UKIP gets 2 or 3 seats. Will Gawain Towler get a MEP job in Brussels or not?
The result in NW England is surprising, returning 4 MEPs, which matches that of the SE Region, which has 10 slots instead of the North West’s 8. This means that Shneur Odze gets a job in Brussels, as well as Paul Nuttall, Louise Bours and Steven Woolfe.
The UKIP poll for the North of England, 35%, equalling the South of England, the two most pro-UKIP regions, shows that UKIP’s strategy of working hard to win over the Labour voter in the north is working, where UKIP is ahead of Labour on 33%.
The Liberal Democrats will get slaughtered, of course. They presently have 12 MEPs, and will be reduced to 4 – so much for Nick Clegg’s committing his party to the EU. The Greens will be reduced from 2 to 1 MEP, whilst the SNP will maintain their 2.
History tells us that our poll ratings climb as the election approaches, and there is some evidence that UKIP voters are more likely to vote in low turnout polls. At the moment UKIP is in the lead (based on the poll) with at least 28 MEPs, but it could go higher. Watch this space.
Monday, 28 April 2014
BREAKDOWN OF THE LATEST POPULUS POLLING
Populus
Absolutely certain to vote by age
18-24 = 24%
25-34 = 38%
35-44 = 51%
45-54 = 51%
55-64 = 64%
65+ = 68%
Men = 57%
Women = 46%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) April 28, 2014
Populus
Absolutely certain to vote by voting intention
#UKIP 70%
#CONSERVATIVES 68%
#LABOUR 64%
#LIBDEMS 61%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) April 28, 2014
Populus
Mavis Riley factor
Dont know who to vote for
Men 11%
Women 24%
18-24 = 26%
55- 64 = 9%
S.E ENGLAND 13%
N.ENGLAND 21%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) April 28, 2014
Populus
aged 18-24 voting intention
#LABOUR 50%
#CONSERVATIVES 23%
#LIBDEMS 14%
#UKIP 5%
#SNP 4%
#GREENS 2%
only 24% are certain to vote
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) April 28, 2014
Populus
Aged 65+ voting intentions
#CONSERVATIVES 42%
#LABOUR 23%
#UKIP 20%
#LIBDEMS 9%
#SNP 3%
#GREENS 2%
68% certain to vote
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) April 28, 2014
http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Online_VI_28-04-2014_BPC.pdf
Sunday, 27 April 2014
YOUGOVS EURO POLL BREAKDOWN OF THE REGIONS
YOUGOV EURO POLLING
Aged 60+ (18-24)
UKIP 45% (15%)
CON 20% (22%)
LAB 19% (32%)
LD 8% (9%)
GREEN 5% (15%)
NON VOTERS
60+ 18%
18-24= 39%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) April 27, 2014
YOUGOV EURO POLLING
#London
#LABOUR 31%
#UKIP 23%
#CONSERVATIVES 21%
#LIBDEMS 14%
#GREENS 7%
#SNP 1% ???
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) April 27, 2014
YOUGOV EURO POLLING
South of England
#UKIP 35%
#LABOUR 22%
#CONSERVATIVES 22%
#LIBDEMS 11%
#GREENS 8%
#SNP 1% ???
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) April 27, 2014
YOUGOV EURO POLL
Midlands / Wales
#UKIP 32%
#LABOUR 30%
#CONSERVATIVES 23%
#GREENS 7%
#LIBDEMS 5%
#PLAID 2%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) April 27, 2014
YOUGOV EURO POLL
Scotland
#SNP 29%
#LABOUR 25%
#UKIP 18%
#LIBDEM 10%
#GREENS 8%
#CONSERVATIVES 8%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) April 27, 2014
YOUGOV EURO POLL
North of England
#UKIP 35%
#LABOUR 33%
#CONSERVATIVES 16%
#GREENS 9%
#LIBDEMS 6%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) April 27, 2014
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/pjvdg1r9fz/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-140525.pdf
APRILS POLITICAL POP CHART
Well, we are now on the run up to what is essentially Christmas for political parties. The rankings below do work similar to heavy rain in the mountains and then flooding days later in the valley. So some parties could have higher traffic now but it could take weeks or even a month to truly reflect in their Alexa ranking. This is due to it being a three month average. But still it is the best for showing trends of those websites.
UKIP have got the highest ranking so far for any political party, BNP seem stubborn to move even though they have barely mustered above a 100 council candidates. It seems that people are still looking at their message. The LibDems have seen a sharp increase in traffic, so even though Clegg may have lost the debate he certainly put his party back on the map. Labour & Conservatives have fallen back with SNP slipping even more be interesting to see how the Independence Referendum plays out coming to September. The Greens are still to reclaim their high position of a few months ago.
We then have the Left Unity with 12 candidates in the council elections yet top ten slot for political parties. Someone is definitely visiting the site. Be interesting to see if like the TUSC who last year achieved top ten status but then fell right back or can it be sustained for the coming months.
Respect have also seen a rise again back into the UK rankings after nearly becoming a no data candidate 5 months ago. The official Loonies have also seen a sharp rise after falling back quite significantly.
Their is a lot of new parties added to the list and will be very interesting to see how this chart develops after the May elections.
Last months rankings are in brackets, and each link is to the ALEXA page for the party not the parties website
ALEXA RANKING EXPLAINED click the link.
UK RANKING
1 (1) UKIP 1,813
2 (2) BNP 4,765
3 (6) LIBERAL DEMOCRATS 6,970
4 (3) LABOUR 9,551
5 (5) CONSERVATIVES 9,944
6 (4) SNP 13,839
7 (7) THE GREEN PARTY 18,819
8 (8) JUSTICE 4 MEN & BOYS 27,223
9 (9) PIRATE PARTY 36,177
10 (-) LEFT UNITY 38,485
11 (10) SCOTTISH SOCIALIST PARTY 70,810
12 (-) RESPECT PARTY 79,915
13 (-) OMRLP 121,454
UK GENERAL ELECTION 2015 BLOG 65,467
GLOBAL RANKING
SINN FEIN 733,874 (4,370 RANKED IN EIRE)
NHA PARTY 1,319,777
MEBYON KERNOW 2,257,881 ( 60,167 RANKED IN SPAIN )
AN INDEPENDENCE FROM EUROPE PARTY 2,733,720
ENGLISH DEMOCRAT 3,229,224
DEMOCRATIC UNIONIST PARTY 2,604,396
NONE OF THE ABOVE 3,550,120
PLAID CYMRU 4,101,979
TUSC 4,205,261
TUV 4,419,662
THE ALLIANCE PARTY 5,541,618
ULSTER UNIONIST PARTY 8,541,391
THE LIBERAL PARTY 9,799,067
SCOTTISH DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE 10,153,984
SOCIALIST LABOUR PARTY 10,592,877
CHRISTIAN PARTY 11,626,295
NI21 13,107,809
NATIONAL LIBERAL PARTY 17,349,144
PATRIOTIC SOCIALIST PARTY 19,225,143
NO DATA
THE PEACE PARTY
THE BLUE PARTY
WESSEX REGIONALISTS
PEOPLES DEMOCRATIC PARTY OF GREAT BRITAIN
IF YOU WOULD LIKE TO SEE ALL MY PAST CHARTS FOR POLITICAL POP CHARTS AND CYBER WARRIOR LISTS
FOLLOW THE LINK http://ukgeneralelection2015.blogspot.co.uk/p/political-pop-chart.html
UKIP have got the highest ranking so far for any political party, BNP seem stubborn to move even though they have barely mustered above a 100 council candidates. It seems that people are still looking at their message. The LibDems have seen a sharp increase in traffic, so even though Clegg may have lost the debate he certainly put his party back on the map. Labour & Conservatives have fallen back with SNP slipping even more be interesting to see how the Independence Referendum plays out coming to September. The Greens are still to reclaim their high position of a few months ago.
We then have the Left Unity with 12 candidates in the council elections yet top ten slot for political parties. Someone is definitely visiting the site. Be interesting to see if like the TUSC who last year achieved top ten status but then fell right back or can it be sustained for the coming months.
Respect have also seen a rise again back into the UK rankings after nearly becoming a no data candidate 5 months ago. The official Loonies have also seen a sharp rise after falling back quite significantly.
Their is a lot of new parties added to the list and will be very interesting to see how this chart develops after the May elections.
Last months rankings are in brackets, and each link is to the ALEXA page for the party not the parties website
ALEXA RANKING EXPLAINED click the link.
UK RANKING
1 (1) UKIP 1,813
2 (2) BNP 4,765
3 (6) LIBERAL DEMOCRATS 6,970
4 (3) LABOUR 9,551
5 (5) CONSERVATIVES 9,944
6 (4) SNP 13,839
7 (7) THE GREEN PARTY 18,819
8 (8) JUSTICE 4 MEN & BOYS 27,223
9 (9) PIRATE PARTY 36,177
10 (-) LEFT UNITY 38,485
11 (10) SCOTTISH SOCIALIST PARTY 70,810
12 (-) RESPECT PARTY 79,915
13 (-) OMRLP 121,454
UK GENERAL ELECTION 2015 BLOG 65,467
GLOBAL RANKING
SINN FEIN 733,874 (4,370 RANKED IN EIRE)
NHA PARTY 1,319,777
MEBYON KERNOW 2,257,881 ( 60,167 RANKED IN SPAIN )
AN INDEPENDENCE FROM EUROPE PARTY 2,733,720
ENGLISH DEMOCRAT 3,229,224
DEMOCRATIC UNIONIST PARTY 2,604,396
NONE OF THE ABOVE 3,550,120
PLAID CYMRU 4,101,979
TUSC 4,205,261
TUV 4,419,662
THE ALLIANCE PARTY 5,541,618
ULSTER UNIONIST PARTY 8,541,391
THE LIBERAL PARTY 9,799,067
SCOTTISH DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE 10,153,984
SOCIALIST LABOUR PARTY 10,592,877
CHRISTIAN PARTY 11,626,295
NI21 13,107,809
NATIONAL LIBERAL PARTY 17,349,144
PATRIOTIC SOCIALIST PARTY 19,225,143
NO DATA
THE PEACE PARTY
THE BLUE PARTY
WESSEX REGIONALISTS
PEOPLES DEMOCRATIC PARTY OF GREAT BRITAIN
IF YOU WOULD LIKE TO SEE ALL MY PAST CHARTS FOR POLITICAL POP CHARTS AND CYBER WARRIOR LISTS
FOLLOW THE LINK http://ukgeneralelection2015.blogspot.co.uk/p/political-pop-chart.html
Friday, 25 April 2014
COUNCIL BY ELECTION RESULTS 24TH APRIL 2014
Our sister blog THE POLLS HAVE NOW CLOSED holds the results for local council by elections
Click the links below for the results
CAERPHILLY - Blackwood RESULT (LAB HOLD)
EAST CAMBRIDGESHIRE - Sutton RESULT (LDEM GAIN)
EAST LINDSEY - Horncastle RESULT (CON HOLD)
North Kesteven - Osbournby RESULT (CON GAIN)
Click the links below for the results
CAERPHILLY - Blackwood RESULT (LAB HOLD)
EAST CAMBRIDGESHIRE - Sutton RESULT (LDEM GAIN)
EAST LINDSEY - Horncastle RESULT (CON HOLD)
North Kesteven - Osbournby RESULT (CON GAIN)
Thursday, 24 April 2014
STATEMENT OF PARTIES NOMINATED FOR THE UK EUROPEAN ELECTIONS 2014
THE ELECTIONS WILL BE HELD ON MAY 22ND 2014
AND THE UK IS SPLIT INTO 12 REGIONS.
CLICK ON REGION LINK TO GO TO A PAGE WITH INFORMATION ABOUT THAT REGION. AND LINKS FOR THE STATEMENT OF PERSONS NOMINATED INFORMATION
EAST OF ENGLAND
10 PARTIES NOMINATED
EAST MIDLANDS
9 PARTIES NOMINATED
LONDON
17 PARTIES NOMINATED
NORTH EAST ENGLAND
8 PARTIES NOMINATED
NORTH WEST ENGLAND
11 PARTIES NOMINATED
NORTHERN IRELAND
10 PARTIES NOMINATED
SCOTLAND
9 PARTIES NOMINATED
SOUTH EAST ENGLAND
15 PARTIES NOMINATED
SOUTH WEST ENGLAND
8 PARTIES NOMINATED
WALES
11 PARTIES NOMINATED
WEST MIDLANDS
11 PARTIES NOMINATED
YORKSHIRE & THE HUMBER
10 PARTIES NOMINATED
Council areas where the returning officers for Euro regions are based:
East Midlands: Kettering
Eastern: Chelmsford
London: Lewisham
North East: Sunderland
North West: Manchester
South East: Southampton
South West: Poole
West Midlands: Birmingham
Yorkshire and Humber: Leeds
Scotland: Falkirk
Wales: Pembrokeshire
AND THE UK IS SPLIT INTO 12 REGIONS.
CLICK ON REGION LINK TO GO TO A PAGE WITH INFORMATION ABOUT THAT REGION. AND LINKS FOR THE STATEMENT OF PERSONS NOMINATED INFORMATION
EAST OF ENGLAND
10 PARTIES NOMINATED
EAST MIDLANDS
9 PARTIES NOMINATED
LONDON
17 PARTIES NOMINATED
NORTH EAST ENGLAND
8 PARTIES NOMINATED
NORTH WEST ENGLAND
11 PARTIES NOMINATED
NORTHERN IRELAND
10 PARTIES NOMINATED
SCOTLAND
9 PARTIES NOMINATED
SOUTH EAST ENGLAND
15 PARTIES NOMINATED
SOUTH WEST ENGLAND
8 PARTIES NOMINATED
WALES
11 PARTIES NOMINATED
WEST MIDLANDS
11 PARTIES NOMINATED
YORKSHIRE & THE HUMBER
10 PARTIES NOMINATED
Council areas where the returning officers for Euro regions are based:
East Midlands: Kettering
Eastern: Chelmsford
London: Lewisham
North East: Sunderland
North West: Manchester
South East: Southampton
South West: Poole
West Midlands: Birmingham
Yorkshire and Humber: Leeds
Scotland: Falkirk
Wales: Pembrokeshire
YOUGOV POLL BREAKDOWN, REGIONAL VOTING V WHO'D MAKE BEST PM?
Yougov
N.Eng Voting
LAB 48%
CON 26%
UKIP 15%
LD 7%
Who would make best PM?
Cameron 28%
Miliband 23%
Clegg 5%
DK 44%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) April 24, 2014
Yougov
London Voting
LAB 38%
CON 33%
LD 14%
UKIP 11%
Who would make the best PM?
Cameron 35%
Miliband 18%
Clegg 8%
DK 39%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) April 24, 2014
Yougov
S.England voting
CON 41%
LAB 30%
UKIP 15%
LD 10%
Who would make best PM?
Cameron 39%
Miliband 17%
Clegg 6%
DK 6%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) April 24, 2014
Yougov
Midlands/Wales voting
LAB 33%
CON 30%
UKIP 20%
LD 11%
Who would make the best PM?
Cameron 39%
Miliband 17%
Clegg 4%
DK 42%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) April 24, 2014
Yougov
Scotland voting
LAB 40%
SNP 26%
CON 21%
LD 4%
UKIP 3%
Who would make the best PM?
Cameron 29%
Miliband 23%
Clegg 4%
DK 45%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) April 24, 2014
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/beetm8yboc/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-230414.pdf
Wednesday, 23 April 2014
BBC allocation criteria for PEBs ahead of European and local elections, May 2014
England
European Elections
Threshold Criterion
Political parties which are standing a full (1) list of candidates in each and every region in England will qualify for a minimum of ONE broadcast in England.
Additional Criterion
Political parties which meet the threshold criterion
will qualify for additional PEBs if they can demonstrate substantial
levels of past and/or current electoral support across England.
Local Elections
Threshold Criterion
All parties standing candidates in a minimum of ONE
SIXTH of the seats being contested will qualify for a single broadcast
in England in addition to any European broadcasts.
Additional Criterion
No additional PEBs will be offered for the local elections.
Scotland
European Elections only
Threshold Criterion
Political parties which are standing a full (2) list
of candidates in Scotland will qualify for a minimum of ONE broadcast
in Scotland.
Additional Criterion
Political parties which meet the threshold criterion
will qualify for additional PEBs if they can demonstrate substantial
levels of past and/or current electoral support across Scotland.
Wales
European Elections only
Threshold Criterion
Political parties which are standing a full (3) list
of candidates in Wales will qualify for a minimum of ONE broadcast in
Wales.
Additional Criterion
Political parties which meet the threshold criterion
will qualify for additional PEBs if they can demonstrate substantial
levels of past and/or current electoral support across Wales.
Northern Ireland
European Elections
Nb. For the purposes of the European election
Northern Ireland is a single three member constituency. MEPs are
elected through the STV (Single Transferable Vote).
Threshold Criterion
Political parties which are standing at least one
candidate for the European Parliament and which have current
representation in the European Parliament, the House of Commons, or the
Northern Ireland Assembly will qualify for a minimum of ONE broadcast
in Northern Ireland.
Additional Criterion
Political parties which meet the threshold criterion
may qualify for additional PEBs if they can demonstrate substantial
levels of past and/or current electoral support across Northern
Ireland.
Local Elections
Threshold Criterion
All parties standing candidates in a minimum of ONE
SIXTH of the seats being contested will qualify for a single broadcast
in Northern Ireland in addition to any European broadcasts.
Additional Criterion
No additional PEBs will be offered for the local elections.
The provisional allocation of all PEBs is subject to review and amendment until after the confirmation of nominations.
(1)
A party may be deemed to be standing a full list if it is clear that
it intended to stand a full list but at a late stage failed to do so,
for example, because a candidate had to withdraw.
(2) See above
LATEST YOUGOV POLLING
Sun/Yougov Westminster poll
#Labour 37%
#Conservatives 34%
#UKIP 12%
#LibDems 10%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) April 23, 2014
Sun/YouGov Euro polling
#Labour 30
#UKIP 27
#Conservatives 22
#LibDems 10
#Greens 6
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) April 23, 2014
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/zvvptj27x4/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-220414.pdf
YOUGOV EURO POLL
Men (Women) voting intentions
#UKIP 30% (23)
#LABOUR 29% (31)
#TORIES 21% (24)
#LIBDEM 11% (9)
Certain to vote 53% (44)
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) April 23, 2014
YOUGOV EURO POLL
Aged 60+ (18-24) intentions
#UKIP 37% (20)
#LABOUR 26% (33)
#TORIES 24% (22)
#LIBDEM 8% (9)
Certain to vote 61% (33)
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) April 23, 2014
Tuesday, 22 April 2014
List of 554 TUSC candidates for Mays local elections
Below is the link for the list of candidates which will be standing for the TUSC in May's local council elections
http://www.tusc.org.uk/txt/295.pdf
and below is an interview as Dave Nellist says that the TUSC will be the 6th largest when it comes to the May Council elections.
http://www.tusc.org.uk/txt/295.pdf
and below is an interview as Dave Nellist says that the TUSC will be the 6th largest when it comes to the May Council elections.
Latest populus polling, young v old voters
Populus
Aged 18-24 voter
Labour 53%
Conservatives 28%
LibDems 9%
Greens 6%
UKIP 3%
SNP 1%
Absolutely certain to vote 33%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) April 22, 2014
Populus
Aged 65+ voter
Conservatives 47%
Labour 19%
UKIP 18%
LibDems 11%
SNP 4%
Greens 1%
Absolutely certain to vote 71%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) April 22, 2014
http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Online_VI_22-04-2014_BPC.pdf
Mapping out the UK General Election 2015
Found this great blog with a insight into the next election thru the power of maps. read more at http://election-data.blogspot.co.uk/ or follow on twitter @election_data
Find below part of an article from the above blog
I want to use this post to examine the political map in the 2015 UK general election in much the same way. The aim of this post is NOT to get into long drawn-out discussions about which seats are already in the bag for any of the political parties. I know I will get some respondents disagreeing with my methods. I know that many of you will likely have different criterion on which you judge a seat to be 'safe'. If you want to get into a debate about what is or isn't a 'safe' seat this is the wrong place to do so. Rather I want to show how the UK is not that different from its cousins across the pond. We too have our 'goat seats'. We too have zones and areas of the country where it would be cost-effective for the campaigns to avoid.
So, let's make a start. I am going to start by listing the seats where the same winning party has polled over 50% in the last four general elections. So, for example in Aberavon Labour have polled 51.9, 60.1, 63.1, and 71.3 per cent in the last four elections, each time securing winning margins of at least 35%. Similarly in Hampshire North East the Conservatives have polled 60.6, 53.1, 53.2 and 50.9 per cent in the last four elections, each time securing winning margins of at least 28%. There are 52 such constituencies in the United Kingdom, with a population of over 5 million and an area of 4,791 square kilometres. Half of these seats are in London or the North West and are predominantly Labour-dominated. In fact only seven of the 52 are not currently dominated by Labour. The map below shows their distribution.
Next I took those seats which the same winning party has secured majorities of over 20% in each of the last four elections. This added another 51 seats to the 52 we already have. So now there are 103 seats with large majorities and/or massive vote share for a single party. These 103 seats account for almost 10 million people in seats with an area of 19,937 square kilometres. This is an area roughly the size of Wales, with a population greater than the cities of London, Birmingham, Manchester and Glasgow combined. The map is shown below:
I did the same for those seats with consistent 15%+ winning majorities for a single party from at least the last three elections, and included those which have only had two elections due to new parliamentary boundaries. This further shrinks the map. There are now 215 constituencies which have established consistent large majorities, large enough to be outside the reasonable expectation of a seat changing hands. These 215 constituencies comprise 20,576,440 people, around a third of the population. These constituencies take up an area of almost 70,000 square kilometres. The map is shown below:
The final stage was to use my own judgement in selecting those seats where one could reasonably expect a particular party to win. In doing this I used those seats my own models are projecting to be a very high probability of success for a particular party. These judgement calls are clearly personal, and in the weeks and months to come I expect to reveal some of the methods I use here. However, I have purposely being very conservative in these choices on this occasion and set my models up likewise. This further shrinks the map, although I must say here that I would personally 'call' a number of seats not included based on my experience and the numbers. That said, even with a conservative setting, the map now shows 351 seats where it is reasonable to assume the result is known in 2015.
These 351 seats have a population of 33,881,216 people with a land area of 114,919 square kilometres. This is an area equal to the whole of England excluding the East Midlands, over half of the population. The map is shown below:
I know many of you will challenge both my methods and assumptions. But this post is intended to display the geography of political priorities and to underline how, for many people, politics is simply not worth the effort. In future posts I will further analyse the geographical distribution of the target seats of all the main parties, together with the efficacy of campaign spending. For now it's enough to simply present the numbers.
Find below part of an article from the above blog
I want to use this post to examine the political map in the 2015 UK general election in much the same way. The aim of this post is NOT to get into long drawn-out discussions about which seats are already in the bag for any of the political parties. I know I will get some respondents disagreeing with my methods. I know that many of you will likely have different criterion on which you judge a seat to be 'safe'. If you want to get into a debate about what is or isn't a 'safe' seat this is the wrong place to do so. Rather I want to show how the UK is not that different from its cousins across the pond. We too have our 'goat seats'. We too have zones and areas of the country where it would be cost-effective for the campaigns to avoid.
So, let's make a start. I am going to start by listing the seats where the same winning party has polled over 50% in the last four general elections. So, for example in Aberavon Labour have polled 51.9, 60.1, 63.1, and 71.3 per cent in the last four elections, each time securing winning margins of at least 35%. Similarly in Hampshire North East the Conservatives have polled 60.6, 53.1, 53.2 and 50.9 per cent in the last four elections, each time securing winning margins of at least 28%. There are 52 such constituencies in the United Kingdom, with a population of over 5 million and an area of 4,791 square kilometres. Half of these seats are in London or the North West and are predominantly Labour-dominated. In fact only seven of the 52 are not currently dominated by Labour. The map below shows their distribution.
Next I took those seats which the same winning party has secured majorities of over 20% in each of the last four elections. This added another 51 seats to the 52 we already have. So now there are 103 seats with large majorities and/or massive vote share for a single party. These 103 seats account for almost 10 million people in seats with an area of 19,937 square kilometres. This is an area roughly the size of Wales, with a population greater than the cities of London, Birmingham, Manchester and Glasgow combined. The map is shown below:
I did the same for those seats with consistent 15%+ winning majorities for a single party from at least the last three elections, and included those which have only had two elections due to new parliamentary boundaries. This further shrinks the map. There are now 215 constituencies which have established consistent large majorities, large enough to be outside the reasonable expectation of a seat changing hands. These 215 constituencies comprise 20,576,440 people, around a third of the population. These constituencies take up an area of almost 70,000 square kilometres. The map is shown below:
The final stage was to use my own judgement in selecting those seats where one could reasonably expect a particular party to win. In doing this I used those seats my own models are projecting to be a very high probability of success for a particular party. These judgement calls are clearly personal, and in the weeks and months to come I expect to reveal some of the methods I use here. However, I have purposely being very conservative in these choices on this occasion and set my models up likewise. This further shrinks the map, although I must say here that I would personally 'call' a number of seats not included based on my experience and the numbers. That said, even with a conservative setting, the map now shows 351 seats where it is reasonable to assume the result is known in 2015.
These 351 seats have a population of 33,881,216 people with a land area of 114,919 square kilometres. This is an area equal to the whole of England excluding the East Midlands, over half of the population. The map is shown below:
I know many of you will challenge both my methods and assumptions. But this post is intended to display the geography of political priorities and to underline how, for many people, politics is simply not worth the effort. In future posts I will further analyse the geographical distribution of the target seats of all the main parties, together with the efficacy of campaign spending. For now it's enough to simply present the numbers.
Monday, 21 April 2014
PPC's The latest most up to date list for 2015 UK General Elections
Link for...
PROSPECTIVE PARLIAMENTARY CANDIDATE SELECTIONS FOR 2015 GENERAL ELECTION
The list has been updated and as such, is as up to date as we know, follow the link above if you would like to know who has been chosen as PPC
360 LABOUR
211 CONSERVATIVE
140 LIBERAL DEMOCRATS
90 UKIP
26 THE GREEN PARTY
25 PLAID CYMRU
18 CLASS WAR PARTY
2 MEBYON KERNOW
2 JUSTICE 4 MEN & BOYS PARTY
1 HEALTH CONCERN
1 TUSC
1 SDLP
1 PIRATE PARTY
1 NHA PARTY
Your help with links for PPC websites would be gratefully received.
Feel free to leave a comment with the information.
PROSPECTIVE PARLIAMENTARY CANDIDATE SELECTIONS FOR 2015 GENERAL ELECTION
The list has been updated and as such, is as up to date as we know, follow the link above if you would like to know who has been chosen as PPC
360 LABOUR
211 CONSERVATIVE
140 LIBERAL DEMOCRATS
90 UKIP
26 THE GREEN PARTY
25 PLAID CYMRU
18 CLASS WAR PARTY
2 MEBYON KERNOW
2 JUSTICE 4 MEN & BOYS PARTY
1 HEALTH CONCERN
1 TUSC
1 SDLP
1 PIRATE PARTY
1 NHA PARTY
Your help with links for PPC websites would be gratefully received.
Feel free to leave a comment with the information.
Latest ICM Euro poll for Scotland
ICM Euro poll for Scotland
#SNP 37%
#Labour 28%
#Conservative 11%
#UKIP 10%
#LibDem 7%
#Green 4%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) April 21, 2014
Latest ICM Scotland poll would mean
#SNP 3 seats
#Labour 2
#Conservative 1
with the Conservatives just 1% above losing their seat to #UKIP
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) April 21, 2014
http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/poll-says-scots-more-likely-to-vote-yes-if-they-think-the-torys-will-win-th.1398070214
People in Scotland are more likely to vote for independence if they think the Conservatives will win the next UK general election, a poll suggests.
But the prospect of a Labour government would see a surge in support for the union, with more voters rejecting independence, the ICM poll found.
ICM recorded the highest overall support for independence since last August at 48% excluding "don't knows", results reported in the Scotland on Sunday revealed.
People in Scotland are more likely to vote for independence if they think the Conservatives will win the next UK general election, a poll suggests.
But the prospect of a Labour government would see a surge in support for the union, with more voters rejecting independence, the ICM poll found.
ICM recorded the highest overall support for independence since last August at 48% excluding "don't knows", results reported in the Scotland on Sunday revealed.
If the Tories look like winning the 2015 general election the Yes
campaign could be on the cusp of victory at 49% excluding undecided
voters, according to further ICM results published today by sister paper
The Scotsman.
The party, which has one MP in Scotland, could also lose its only Scottish MEP to Eurosceptic party Ukip at the European elections next month, the poll suggests.
Overall, ICM found 39% in support of independence with 42% against and 19% undecided.
The prospect of a Tory government would see a two per cent swing from undecided to boost Yes to 41% while the No vote remains unchanged.
The prospect of a Labour government would see support for independence fall to 36%, support for the union surge to 44% and leave 20% undecided.
Support for Ukip is on the rise and they are on the verge of becoming Scotland's third most popular party in the European Parliament, according to ICM voting intentions.
The SNP remains the most popular party at 37%, although support is down 4% on last month, with Labour holding fairly steady in second place at 28%.
Tory support has dropped two points to 11% while support for Ukip is up four points to 10%.
Lib Dem support was two points up at 7% while the Greens remained unchanged at 4%.
ICM interviewed an online sample of 1,004 Scottish adults aged 16+ on 14-16 April 2014.
The party, which has one MP in Scotland, could also lose its only Scottish MEP to Eurosceptic party Ukip at the European elections next month, the poll suggests.
Overall, ICM found 39% in support of independence with 42% against and 19% undecided.
The prospect of a Tory government would see a two per cent swing from undecided to boost Yes to 41% while the No vote remains unchanged.
The prospect of a Labour government would see support for independence fall to 36%, support for the union surge to 44% and leave 20% undecided.
Support for Ukip is on the rise and they are on the verge of becoming Scotland's third most popular party in the European Parliament, according to ICM voting intentions.
The SNP remains the most popular party at 37%, although support is down 4% on last month, with Labour holding fairly steady in second place at 28%.
Tory support has dropped two points to 11% while support for Ukip is up four points to 10%.
Lib Dem support was two points up at 7% while the Greens remained unchanged at 4%.
ICM interviewed an online sample of 1,004 Scottish adults aged 16+ on 14-16 April 2014.
Survation, Is too much of England run from London?
Is too much of England run from London? Public Back Regional Decision Making (Survation for Devolve Deliver)
Damian Lyons Lowe, Survation Chief Executive, said:
"These results show that a majority of the public are unhappy with the degree to which power in the UK is centralised in London. Whilst there is not support for full Scotland-style devolution in English regions, there is clearly an appetite to see powers in many areas, including transport, service delivery and even some economic powers, wrested away from central government and handed over to more local bodies. With a majority of Labour and Liberal Democrat voters saying they would be more likely to support a party promising to devolve powers, it seems that Ed Miliband has potential gains to make from his increased focus on this area."
Full data tables are available here.
Keep up to date with all of Survation’s research and analysis on our blog.
-
In new polling looking at the potential appetite for regional devolution in England, 65% to 13% of the public agreed that “too much of England is run from London” and the statement “London receives preferential treatment over the rest of the UK” had a significant 70% agreement vs 16% for the opposing statement
-
The public do not support a level of devolved power for England that Scotland and Wales currently experience, but backed more economic powers being delivered at a local or regional level by 50% to 33%. Local and regional devolution of transport decisions was backed by 61% to 23%
-
The Labour Party’s recent moves to discuss such devolution may find support from a sceptical public of whom only 8% trusted Government ministers over others for decisions about local service delivery. 40% told Survation they were more likely (net) to vote for a party which promised to devolve more power to their area vs. only 8% (net) less likely
Damian Lyons Lowe, Survation Chief Executive, said:
"These results show that a majority of the public are unhappy with the degree to which power in the UK is centralised in London. Whilst there is not support for full Scotland-style devolution in English regions, there is clearly an appetite to see powers in many areas, including transport, service delivery and even some economic powers, wrested away from central government and handed over to more local bodies. With a majority of Labour and Liberal Democrat voters saying they would be more likely to support a party promising to devolve powers, it seems that Ed Miliband has potential gains to make from his increased focus on this area."
Full data tables are available here.
Keep up to date with all of Survation’s research and analysis on our blog.
For general enquiries, please call 
0203 142 7640 or email enquiry@survation.com
0203 142 7640 or email enquiry@survation.comSunday, 20 April 2014
EASTLEIGH BETTING ODDS
Here is the betting odds since last nights survation survey
Click here to see the survey results
Eastleigh - Winning Party Betting (bets taken)
LIBDEMS 4/5 (35%)
UKIP 2/1 (61%)
TORIES 3/1 (4%)
LAB 50/1 (0)
@LadPolitics ( @Oddschecker )
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) April 20, 2014
Saturday, 19 April 2014
And this is where electoral Calculus fails
National Prediction: LAB majority 56
| Party | 2010 Votes | 2010 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 36.97% | 307 | 22.00% | 0 | 124 | 183 |
| LAB | 29.66% | 258 | 30.00% | 95 | 0 | 353 |
| LIB | 23.56% | 57 | 8.00% | 0 | 28 | 29 |
| UKIP | 3.17% | 0 | 27.00% | 56 | 0 | 56 |
| NAT | 2.26% | 9 | 2.26% | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| MIN | 0.89% | 19 | 0.89% | 1 | 0 | 20 |
| OTH | 3.48% | 0 | 9.85% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Edit current prediction, make new prediction, or go back to home page.
I have just put in the ICM polling information to see just what may happen. It not only suggests UKIP would win 57 but some of their greatest bets now such as Great Yarmouth would be won by Labour, where as if UKIP did ever get 27% I am sure that would be one of the first notched up on the board. It also thinks that Lib Dems on 8% would still save half their seats. With that kind of share of the vote even Mr Clegg would be twitchy in Sheffield Hallam. Great tool but very much flawed at times.
Eastleigh Constituency – Survation for Alan Bown
Voting Intention Figures – Westminster (change vs Eastleigh By-election Feb 2013)
UKIP 32 (+4)
CON 28 (+3)
LD 27 (-5)
LAB 12 (+2)
AP 3 (-2)
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) April 19, 2014
http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Eastleigh-Constituency-Poll-Alan-Bown-MOS-April-20th.pdf
An Independence From Europe
As the parties make a launch for the European elections here is a MEP who was elected as UKIP but now fighting the election with An Independence From Europe Party. How much of an affect will this have? Well when the results roll in we will find out.
http://www.aipmep.org/
Friday, 18 April 2014
Latest populus polling
Populus poll
Labour 35%
Conservative 34%
UKIP 14%
Libdem 9%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) April 18, 2014
Populus polling
Men (Women)
Conservatives 34% (33)
Labour 33% (38)
UKIP 15% (12)
LD 10% (8)
Absolutely certain to vote
Men 60% Women 43%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) April 18, 2014
Populus
Aged 18-24 (65+)
Labour 48% (23)
Conservative 34% (43)
LD 6% (7)
UKIP 4% (20)
Absolutely certain to vote
18-24 = 33%
65+ = 74%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) April 18, 2014
Populus
Absolutely certain to vote by voting intention
UKIP 70%
Conservative 68%
Labour 64%
Liberal Democrat 57%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) April 18, 2014
http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Online_VI_17-04-2014_BPC.pdf
The Student Vote 2014
Research highlights
http://www.youthsight.com/media-centre/press/the-student-vote-2014/
- Liberal Democrats at lowest ebb with students since 2004
- Green Party student support at highest ever level
- Students are pro-Europe
- Labour still students top choice
- Scottish students want to remain part of the UK
http://www.youthsight.com/media-centre/press/the-student-vote-2014/
YouthSight poll of voting intention amongst students 1-2 April
Labour 43%
Conservative 24%
Green 14%
Lib Dem 6%
UKIP 5%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) April 18, 2014
Amongst Scottish students polled about the Independence Referendum
No 58%
Yes 37%
#indyref
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) April 18, 2014
Labour hires Obama campaign chief David Axelrod
Mr Axelrods first job I guess is to sort the perception over leadership and party, people vote for the party but think the leadership is lacking.
From BBC website
The Labour Party has
appointed US election strategist David Axelrod as a strategic adviser on
leader Ed Miliband's 2015 election campaign.
Mr Axelrod was a key architect of Barack Obama's victory over John McCain in the 2008 presidential race.He will work alongside shadow foreign secretary, Douglas Alexander, who is to run Labour's general election strategy.
Labour will also call on Mr Axelrod's consulting, firm AKVD, in its bid to win power, BBC Newsnight revealed.
After masterminding Mr Obama's election to the White House, Mr Axelrod went on to become a senior adviser to the president.
Continue reading the main story
“Start Quote
David Axelrod US election strategistEd Miliband understands the struggle that people are going through in Britain to make a living wage, to support their families, to retire with some dignity”
He quit the post in 2011 in order to work on the successful 2012 campaign to re-elect Mr Obama.
The strategist has since acted as a media commentator and as a
director of the Institute of Politics at the University of Chicago.'Huge asset' Ed Miliband hailed the appointment as "excellent news" and predicted the strategist would be a "huge asset to our campaign as we work to show the British people how we can change our country for the better".
Mr Axelrod said he had been struck by the power of the Labour leader's ideas and the "strength of his vision".
LATEST YOUGOV POLL - WHICH PARTY IS LED BY PEOPLE OF ABILITY?
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/xc4okgl821/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-170414.pdf
Is this the killer for the Libdems?
Which party is led by people of real ability?
1% MIDS/WALES
2% LONDON
2% S.ENG
2% N.ENG
6% SCOTLAND
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) April 18, 2014
Yougov
Mids/Wales vote
LAB 35%
CON 34%
UKIP 16%
LD 10%
Which party led by people of real ability?
CON 22%
LAB 15%
LD 1%
NONE 46%
DK 17%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) April 18, 2014
Yougov
S.England voting
CON 40%
LAB 28%
UKIP 17%
LD 13%
Which party led by people of real ability?
CON 24%
LAB 15%
LD 2%
NONE 42%
DK 17%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) April 18, 2014
Yougov
London voting
LAB 41%
CON 34%
UKIP 12%
LD 9%
Which party led by people of real ability?
CON 18%
LAB 10%
LD 2%
NONE 45%
DK 25%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) April 18, 2014
Yougov
N.England Voting
LAB 42%
CON 28%
UKIP 16%
LD 8%
Which party led by people of real ability?
CON 23%
LAB 21%
LD 2%
NONE 38%
DK 16%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) April 18, 2014
THE SOCIALIST EQUALITY PARTY EUROPEAN ELECTION CANDIDATES
Just something I found on my travels, a full list of candidates for the SEP in the North West of England.
http://socialequality.org.uk/
http://socialequality.org.uk/
Chris Marsden, 52, is the national secretary of the Socialist Equality Party and a member of the Editorial Board of the 
Julie Hyland, 49, is assistant national secretary of the Socialist Equality Party and a member of the Editorial Board of the World Socialist Web Site.
Robert Skelton, 44, writes regularly for the World Socialist Web Site,
with a focus on the disclosures by whistleblower Edward Snowden of mass
illegal surveillance by the US and British security services.
Lucy Warren, 25, is a Learning Support Assistant. She joined the SEP in 2010, and is a member of its youth organization, the 
Mark Dowson, 39, is a call centre worker. He joined the SEP in 2011 out of his experiences in the Occupy movement and writes for the World Socialist Web Site on the National Health Service and social conditions in Britain and Europe.
Ajitha Gunaratne,
46, works in the National Health Service. He joined the Revolutionary
Communist League, forerunner of the SEP in Sri Lanka in 1990. He writes
on the NHS.
Joe Heffer, 25, is a postgraduate student at the University of Liverpool. He joined the SEP in 2009 and is a member of the 
Danny Dickinson,
66, is a retiree having worked as a seaman, car and rail worker and for
the Pilkington group, St Helens. A socialist his entire adult life, he
writes for the World Socialist Web Site on the struggles of workers in Britain.Thursday, 17 April 2014
COMRES POLLWATCH: When we take justice for granted
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