Saturday, 19 April 2014

And this is where electoral Calculus fails

National Prediction: LAB majority 56

Party2010 Votes2010 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesPred Seats

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I have just put in the ICM polling information to see just what may happen. It not only suggests UKIP would win 57 but some of their greatest bets now such as Great Yarmouth would be won by Labour, where as if UKIP did ever get 27% I am sure that would be one of the first notched up on the board. It also thinks that Lib Dems on 8% would still save half their seats. With that kind of share of the vote even Mr Clegg would be twitchy in Sheffield Hallam. Great tool but very much flawed at times.

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