SURVATION SCOTTISH #INDYREF TV DEBATE POLLING

Lots of interesting stats but I felt this was the most interesting, of those who watched the TV debates the YES camp won, but those who didn't watch the debates the NO camp is clear winners. Just what do you extrapolate from that?

#indyref survation Those who watched the debates YES 47.1% NO 44% UD 8.9% Those who didn't watch TV debates YES 27.4% NO 52.5% UD 20.1%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) August 31, 2014

LINK FOR DATA TABLES

 http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Scottish-DM-2nd-Debate-Tables.pdf

LINK FOR TWITTER ANALYTICS TOOL

If like me you love your stats and you have a twitter account you will enjoy the fact that you can get to see all your stats by using the Twitter Analytics tool,

Unfortunately it doesn't work from before the time you get the app started so it can't be retrospective. But from when you press the start button and you tweet it will give you an array of stats for you to feast on.

LINK >>>>>>>>>>>> https://analytics.twitter.com/about

Happy Stating!!!

POPULUS POLLING 27th - 28th August 2014

Populus #CONSERVATIVES 35% #LABOUR 34% #UKIP 13% #LIBDEMS 8% #GREENS 5% #SNP 4%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) August 29, 2014

POPULUS FEMALE VOTING INTENTIONS #CONSERVATIVES 38% #LABOUR 35% #UKIP 10% #LIBDEMS 7% #GREENS 5% #SNP 4%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) August 29, 2014

POPULUS MALE VOTING INTENTIONS #LABOUR 34% #CONSERVATIVES 32% #UKIP 16% #LIBDEMS 9% #SNP 4% #GREENS 4%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) August 29, 2014

Link to data tables

http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/OmOnline_Vote_29-08-2014_BPC.pdf

COMRES POLLWATCH: The Carswell Conundrum

POLLWATCH: The Carswell Conundrum A senior journalist recently told me that his advice to young, budding reporters is to never go away in August as something always happens and there is never anyone around to report it. And so it proved yesterday when everyone seemed to be caught out by the announcement that Douglas Carswell, Conservative MP for Clacton, is defecting to UKIP and forcing a by-election in his constituency. Instantly it caused shock and surprise but soon enough thoughts began turning to what it all means. Mr Carswell’s defection is clearly a blow to the Conservative Party. Ed Miliband has already been quick to point to it being a sign of division and weakness in the Conservative Party. It certainly does not look good for the governing Party to lose an MP – in a safe seat – to a Party with no other members in the House. It makes for an unwanted distraction and a diversion of precious finances towards fighting an unforeseen, and previously very safe, by-election. For now the blow is not fatal, but what will be worrying Tory HQ is the prospect of more defectors coming out of the woodwork in the coming months. If this is the start of a trend and a few more colleagues follow Mr Carswell into Nigel Farage’s open arms then the Conservatives begin to have a real problem. Not only will it show a divided Party – the public hate seeing a divided Party – but the Conservatives are already desperate for every seat in the House of Commons they can get and will feel the loss of any more. Party management has always been a problem for David Cameron and the right wing of the Conservative Party has never been enamoured with their leader who, they point out privately, was the leader who couldn’t win a majority against Gordon Brown. The prospect of defeat at the General Election can force a Party into two directions: unity and resolve to fight the election, or all out war among disgruntled members. The fallout from Mr Carswell’s summer transfer, could, perversely, help to unify the Conservative Party. A number of backbench MPs who may have been ripe for UKIP have already come out against any such a move and they may now be spooked. A Conservative victory in Clacton would help this even further.  UKIP’s threat to the Conservatives is well known and this move only serves to highlight that. With a sitting Conservative MP joining their ranks it continues to build the much needed momentum that they whipped up at the European Elections. It ensures the Party continues to be talked about and adds an air of credibility which had previously been lacking. Starting from a position of no MPs and just 3% of the vote in 2010 this gives credence to their argument that they are a serious political Party which should not be ignored. The big question is what happens next in Clacton. Matthew Goodwin, an academic at Nottingham University who has been closely studying UKIP, suggests that Clacton is the “most favourable seat for UKIP in the country". The by-election therefore throws up a number of potential outcomes. If Mr Carswell successfully retains his seat, this time as a UKIP candidate, it will not only continue the good news for Mr Farage’s Party, but also provide their first win in a Westminster election and another damaging strike to the Conservatives. It may also encourage other MPs to follow suit. UKIP’s credibility would again receive a boost and they would now be a part of Westminster politics – with everything that entails. But what if Mr Carswell loses? This is perhaps the most interesting permutation. It would be a significant defeat for man who enjoyed a large majority. Would he seek to stand as a UKIP candidate at the General Election elsewhere or is this his 15 minutes? The Conservatives would no doubt be buoyed by a victory, although of course it is a seat they expect to win under normal circumstances.  A defeat could damage UKIP’s positive narrative and undo much of the positivity the defection itself caused. UKIP themselves would likely brush it off but it is surely a seat they would target with a demographic profile ideal for their appeal. However, defeat would raise serious questions. Mr Carswell is a very popular MP in his own constituency, his 12,000 majority is testament to that – what chance is there for less well-known UKIP candidates, in seats where they have very little personal following, of persuading voters to join the “People’s Army”? The Carswell conundrum is just another fascinating twist along the long road to May 2015. We will see whether the individual reputation of a popular constituency MP can trump Party support. The timing is delicious: Parliament returns next week and the Conservatives are down an MP. With conference season just around the corner expect to hear much more scuttlebutt emanating from late night bars in Glasgow, Birmingham, Manchester and now Doncaster.

Follow ComRes on Twitter for the latest polls and analysis:@ComResPolls Author: Tom Mludzinski, Head of Political Polling @tom_ComRes Be prepared for GE2015 with the new ComRes Election Toolkit: Battlebus The 2015 Battlebus is an online survey of 1,000 adults living in the 40 most marginal constituencies where Labour and the Conservatives share first and second place between them and battle head-to-head to get their candidate elected. This survey offers unique access to the opinions of those voters who will win or lose the election for the main parties - all at omnibus price levels. In the run up to the election, and whilst the parties are drafting their manifestos, this research tool is ideal for ensuring that each of the parties know the importance of your policy issues to those who will be decisive in getting them elected. This can be very powerful for lobbying material or for generating media hits. More information here. Future MPs survey Based on forecasts using our long-term voting intention surveys and careful psephological analysis, we have formulated a method of gauging the most likely composition of the House of Commons after May 2015. Guaranteeing a sample of 100 of those MPs and PPCs who are most likely to take a seat in Parliament after 2015, ComRes is offering its clients a chance to gain vital insight into the levels of support for policy issues post 2015, enabling organisations to be on the front foot for when the new Parliament sits. More information here

ComRes, Four Millbank, London, SW1P 3JA
ComRes is the trading name of CommunicateResearch Ltd, a company registered in England and Wales. Company number: 4810991. Registered office: Coveham House, Downside Bridge Road, Cobham, Surrey KT11 3EP.

UK GENERAL ELECTION FORECAST

No change at the top the polls: the UK Polling Report Average still has Labour and the Conservatives on 36% and 33% respectively. As with the last couple of weeks, that means the Tories’ projected poll share moves down very, very slightly and Labour’s moves up very, very slightly, as another week goes by without the anticipated swing towards David Cameron’s party.
Our central forecast gives the Tories 301 seats (the same as last week), and Labour 294 (one more than last week). That’d mean another Hung Parliament, with the Conservatives 25 seats short of a majority.
There is a little bit of movement further down the polls, with the Lib Dems down 1 to 8% and UKIP up 2 to 14%. That translates into the Lib Dems’ worst forecast since our model launched in October, due to  a combination of their joint-lowest share in the polling average and less time to make up ground. Our central forecast is for them to win just 11.7% of the vote and 26 seats.
Probabilities-wise, our forecast’s pretty much the same as last week, though what change there’s been is perhaps a little counter-intuitive.  The chance of a Conservative majority is up a touch, but so is the chance of a Labour one (though we’re only talking a few tenths of a percentage point). That’s because, with the Lib Dems expected to take fewer votes and seats, the chances of a Hung Parliament are down very slightly, from 51% to 50%.
 LINK TO DATA
Date of forecast: 29 August 2014
Days till the election: 251
Inputted current average poll shares (from UK Polling Report)
Con: 33%
Lab: 36%
LD: 8%
Others (inc. UKIP): 23%
– UKIP: 14%
Forecast Election Day Shares (with 95% Prediction Intervals)
Con: 35.8% (±7.3, i.e. 29% – 43%)
Lab: 32.3% (±5.5, i.e. 27% – 38%)
LD: 11.7% (±8, i.e. 4% – 20%)
Implied point estimate shares for:
– Others (inc. UKIP): 20.2%
– UKIP: 12.3%
Forecast Election Day Seats (with approximate 95% Prediction Intervals)
Con: 301 (223 – 391)
Lab: 294 (209 – 367)
LD: 26 (21 – 33)
(Prediction intervals assume LD & others shares at central forecast, Con & Lab shares vary as per prediction intervals)
Central forecast: Con largest party, but short of a majority by 25
Approximate probabilities of key outcomes
Con largest: 54%
… with a majority: 28%
Lab largest: 46%
… with a majority: 22%
Hung Parliament: 50%
… with Con largest: 26%
… with Lab largest: 24%
(probabilities may not sum due to rounding)

2015 UK Parliamentary Election Forecast

 This report was generated on 28 August 2014 at 09:25. To read commentary on the election using these forecasts, follow Election4castUK on Twitter. If you would like to give us feedback on this forecast, please email us at feedback@electionforecast.co.uk

 http://electionforecast.co.uk/

Our current prediction is that there will be no overall majority, but that Labour will be the largest party with 306 seats. However, based on the historical relationships between the sources of information we are using in our forecast and the outcome of UK elections, we know there is substantial uncertainty in our forecast. The sidebar at right includes predictive probabilities of the key outcomes of the election, as well as vote and seat forecasts for each party with 90% uncertainty intervals.

• And now the party forecast...
  • Conservatives. Holding steady over the past fortnight. Seat loss probable. Majority unlikely. Plurality moderately unlikely.
  • Labour. Holding steady. Seat gain almost certain. Majority unlikely. Plurality probable.
  • Liberal Democrats. Fading slightly. Seat loss almost certain.
  • SNP. Holding steady. Seat gain very likely.
  • Plaid Cymru. Holding steady. Seat loss moderately unlikely.
  • Greens. Holding steady. Seat loss moderately unlikely.
  • UKIP. Holding steady. Seat gain moderately unlikely.

Party	Lo	Seats	Hi	Swing
Conservatives	239	287	339	-19
Labour	258	306	352	48
Liberal Democrats	12	25	40	-32
SNP	5	8	12	2
Plaid Cymru	2	3	5	0
Greens	0	1	1	0
UKIP	0	1	2	1
Other	1	1	1	0

• Map

SURVATION SCOTTISH ATTITUDES POLL #INDYREF

Survation Those asked about Scottish Parliament regional list and are certain to vote #indyref YES 49.9% NO 50.1%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) August 29, 2014

Survation Scottish Parliament regional list All certain to vote #SNP 40% #LABOUR 28% #TORIES 11% #GREENS 8% #LIBDEMS 7% #UKIP 5%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) August 29, 2014

Scottish Parliament constituency vote All those certain to vote #SNP 44.6% #LABOUR 34% #CONSERVATIVES 13% #LIBDEMS 5% OTH 3.4%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) August 29, 2014

Survation #indyref Absolutely certain to vote YES 82.4% NO 77.3%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) August 29, 2014

Yougov Scottish voting intentions #SNP 32% #Labour 27% #Conservatives 26% #LibDems 6% #Greens 4% #UKIP 4%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) August 29, 2014

Link to data tables

http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Daily-Record-Tables-Full.pdf

YOUGOV POLLING ( AUGUST 27th - 28th )

Is the party you vote for led by people of real ability? % of those who agree #Conservatives 61% #Labour 41% #LibDems 36%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) August 29, 2014

N.England voting LAB 44% CON 27% UKIP 15% LD 7% Which party is led by people of real ability? CON 19% LAB 16% LD 4% NONE 42% DK 18%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) August 29, 2014

Yougov Voting intentions aged 18-24 LABOUR 43% CONSERVATIVES 24% LIBDEMS 10% GREEN 9% UKIP 6% SNP / PC 5% BUT WON'T VOTE / DON'T KNOW 33%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) August 29, 2014

Yougov Voting intentions aged 65+ CONSERVATIVES 43% LABOUR 25% UKIP 17% LIBDEMS 7% SNP / PC 4% GREENS 3% WON'T VOTE / DON'T KNOW 18%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) August 29, 2014

Yougov Male voting intentions #Labour 38% #Conservatives 31% #UKIP 15% #LibDems 7% #SNP / PC 5% #Greens 4% Won't vote / Don't knows 16%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) August 29, 2014

Yougov Scottish voting intentions #SNP 32% #Labour 27% #Conservatives 26% #LibDems 6% #Greens 4% #UKIP 4%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) August 29, 2014

 LINK TO DATA TABLES
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/4opt8ezl50/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-280814.pdf

(CLACTON) TENDRING COUNCIL EURO ELECTION RESULTS 2014

Name of Registered Party	Number of Votes
An Independence from Europe – UK Independence Now	704
British National Party - Fighting Unsustainable Housing Because We Care	410
Christian Peoples Alliance	263
Conservative Party – For real change in Europe	9981
English Democrats – I’m English, NOT British, NOT EUropean!	550
Green Party	2604
Labour Party	5241
Liberal Democrats	848
NO2EU - Yes to Workers’ Rights	119
UK Independence Party (UKIP)	19,398

 LINK TO BREAKDOWN OF WARD BY WARD FOR CLACTON

As all the wards for Clacton fall under the Tandring district council, I thought the above information would be interesting.

CLACTON WARD BY WARD BREAKDOWN

Electoral Calculus prediction, obviously taken before todays announcement

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	22,867	53.03%	47.82%
LAB	10,799	25.04%	30.46%
LIB	5,577	12.93%	1.62%
OTH	3,880	9.00%	11.43%
CON Majority	12,068	27.99%	Pred Maj 17.36%

Clacton: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Clacton

---

Implied and predicted ward-by-ward votes for Clacton

This table shows the (estimated) general election results broken down over each ward in the seat of Clacton, as well as the predicted election result ward-by-ward.

Clacton			Est. 2010 General Election Results					Predicted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2010	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	Other Votes	Total Votes	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	Other Votes	Total Votes
Tendring	Alton Park	3,486	935	1,302	0	0	2,237	843	1,332	0	62	2,237
Tendring	Beaumont and Thorpe	1,769	727	83	140	184	1,134	656	147	18	314	1,135
Tendring	Bockings Elm	3,563	845	529	913	0	2,287	762	818	115	593	2,288
Tendring	Burrsville	1,703	645	230	193	26	1,094	582	306	24	182	1,094
Tendring	Frinton	3,269	1,489	252	154	202	2,097	1,343	344	19	391	2,097
Tendring	Golf Green	4,068	1,135	1,195	122	159	2,611	1,023	1,267	15	306	2,611
Tendring	Hamford	3,061	1,163	419	166	217	1,965	1,049	504	21	391	1,965
Tendring	Haven	1,689	601	99	167	218	1,085	542	166	21	356	1,085
Tendring	Holland and Kirby	3,681	1,249	453	286	375	2,363	1,126	575	36	626	2,363
Tendring	Homelands	1,614	630	205	87	114	1,036	568	250	11	207	1,036
Tendring	Little Clacton and Weeley	3,604	1,322	416	249	326	2,313	1,192	530	31	560	2,313
Tendring	Peter Bruff	3,243	879	483	719	0	2,081	793	717	90	481	2,081
Tendring	Pier	3,806	1,399	695	151	198	2,443	1,262	783	19	379	2,443
Tendring	Rush Green	3,425	1,090	800	277	32	2,199	983	915	35	267	2,200
Tendring	St Bartholomews	3,820	1,318	231	391	511	2,451	1,188	386	49	828	2,451
Tendring	St James	3,316	1,370	433	198	128	2,129	1,235	534	25	335	2,129
Tendring	St Johns	3,765	1,116	790	480	30	2,416	1,006	964	60	386	2,416
Tendring	St Marys	3,686	1,150	753	200	262	2,365	1,037	847	25	456	2,365
Tendring	St Osyth and Point Clear	3,410	1,063	623	218	285	2,189	959	720	27	483	2,189
Tendring	St Pauls	3,799	1,530	185	313	410	2,438	1,380	324	39	695	2,438
Tendring	Walton	3,419	1,212	624	155	203	2,194	1,093	707	19	374	2,193
	Total	67,196	22,868	10,800	5,579	3,880	43,126	20,622	13,136	699	8,672	43,129

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.

LATEST BETTING FOR CLACTON BY ELECTION

CLACTON BY ELECTION Link to 2010 General Election result

#CLACTON #BYELECTION ODDS From @LadPolitics #UKIP 1/3 #CONSERVATIVES 5/2 #LABOUR 10/1 #LIBDEMS 100/1
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) August 28, 2014

CLACTON MP CARSWELL DEFECTS TO #UKIP - odds on to win the by election & return 1st UKIP MP to Westminster - 4/6 #UKIP, 11/10 Tories
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) August 28, 2014

Latest betting from @sharpeangle UKIP 8/11 to poll more votes than #LibDems -Evens to do vice versa- at next General Election. #UKIP
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) August 28, 2014

CLACTON BY ELECTION

CLACTON RESULT FROM 2010

Douglas Carswell	Conservative	22,867	53.0	+8.6
Ivan Henderson	Labour	10,799	25.0	-10.9
Michael Green	Liberal Democrat	5,577	12.9	-0.6
Jim Taylor	British National Party	1,975	4.6	+4.6
Terry Allen	Tendring First	1,078	2.5	+2.5
Chris Southall	Green	535	1.2	+1.2
Christopher Humphrey	Independent	292	0.7	+0.7
Majority		12,068	28.0
Turnout		43,123	64.2	+1.6

CLACTON by election to happen due to the tweets below.

Douglas Carswell MP defects to #UKIP
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) August 28, 2014

Douglas Carswell to resign as MP and will stand for re election as UKIP candidate in his own current seat
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) August 28, 2014

Clacton by election. Due to the fact that Douglas Carswell resigns from the Conservatives and joins UKIP and will stand as a UKIP candidate
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) August 28, 2014

YOUGOV (Voting intention V who'd make best PM?)

YOUGOV Female voting intentions LAB 35% CON 33% UKIP 14% LD 7% GRN 6% Who'd make best PM? CAMERON 34% MILIBAND 17% CLEGG 3% DK 46%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) August 28, 2014

YOUGOV Male voting intentions LAB 35% CON 34% UKIP 13% GRN 6% LD 6% Who'd make best PM? CAMERON 37% MILIBAND 22% CLEGG 4% DK 36%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) August 28, 2014

YOUGOV Who would make the best PM? LIBDEM VOTERS THOUGHTS CLEGG 36% CAMERON 24% MILIBAND 12% DON'T KNOW 28%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) August 28, 2014

YOUGOV Who would make the best PM? Labour voters thoughts MILIBAND 57% CAMERON 4% CLEGG 2% DON'T KNOW 37%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) August 28, 2014

YOUGOV Who would make the best PM? Conservative voters thoughts CAMERON 94% MILIBAND 0 CLEGG 0 DON'T KNOW 6%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) August 28, 2014

YOUGOV Who'd make the best PM? 94% of Tory voters say Cameron 57% of Labour voters say Miliband 36% of LD voters say Clegg
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) August 28, 2014

YOUGOV Who would make the best PM? #GE2010 #LIBDEM voters CAMERON 24% MILIBAND 19% CLEGG 11% DON'T KNOW 46%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) August 28, 2014

Link for the data tables

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/3hifp9oz1l/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-270814.pdf

TOP POLITICAL BLOGS ACCORDING TO EBUZZING

http://labs.ebuzzing.co.uk/top-blogs/politics

The above link has the full list, the tweet below has the top 7

Top politics blogs accordin to @Ebuzzing 1 @LabourList 2 @GuidoFawkes 3 @LeftFootFwd 4 @ThomasPride 5 @libdemvoice 6 @PSbook 7 @MidWalesMike
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) August 27, 2014

WHAT DO THE VOTERS THINK OF THE POLITICAL LEADERS?

Here is a breakdown from todays YOUGOV polling

YOUGOV No LD voter found MILIBAND charismatic No LAB or UKIP voters found CLEGG strong No LAB voters found CAMERON in touch with concerns
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) August 27, 2014

YOUGOV 6% of women believe CAMERON is in touch with concerns of the ordinary people MILIBAND scores 18% CLEGG 9%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) August 27, 2014

YOUGOV 3% of all women in the UK find MILIBAND to be a NATURAL LEADER CLEGG also scores 3% CAMERON 16%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) August 27, 2014

YOUGOV 23% of #LABOUR voters think MILIBAND has no positive attributes 24% of LD think same of CLEGG 11% of TORIES think same of CAMERON
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) August 27, 2014

YOUGOV 40% of #LABOUR voters think Miliband sticks to what he believes in 50% of TORIES think same of CAMERON 27% LD think same of CLEGG
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) August 27, 2014

YOUGOV 40% of #LABOUR voters think Miliband is HONEST 37% of LD think the same of CLEGG 37% of TORIES think the same of CAMERON
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) August 27, 2014

YOUGOV 9% of #LABOUR voters think Miliband is a natural leader 43% of TORIES think same of CAMERON 17% of LD think same of CLEGG
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) August 27, 2014

YOUGOV 9% of #LABOUR voters think Miliband would be good in a crisis. 14% of LD think same of CLEGG 35% of TORIES think same of CAMERON
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) August 27, 2014

Link to data tables

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/ylfpbtmctf/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-260814.pdf

POPULUS POLLING 22nd - 25th August 2014

POPULUS VOTING INTENTION MEN V (WOMEN) #LABOUR 35% (42%) #CONSERVATIVES 33% (29%) #UKIP 18% (11%) #LIBDEMS 8% (9%) #GREENS 3% (4%)
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) August 26, 2014

POPULUS VOTING INTENTION BY AGE 18-24 V (65+) #LABOUR 49% (26%) #TORY 34% (42%) #GREENS 7% (2%) #LIBDEM 6% (8%) #UKIP 2% (18%)
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) August 26, 2014

http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/OmOnline_Vote_26-08-2014_BPC.pdf

link to data tables

A SELECTION OF TARGET SEAT BETTING (UK GENERAL ELECTION 2015)

Here is a list of target seat betting, it seams Labour are doing well all the way down to number 50, and whilst the Conservatives are not taking any from Labour they are doing well against the Lib Dems.

You can click TOP 50 TARGET SEAT FOR LABOUR & CONSERVATIVES to view the list

#GE2015 LATEST BETTING TAUNTON DEANE (LD) #CONSERVATIVE TARGET SEAT 49 12th from #LIBDEMS #CONSERVATIVES 5/6 #LIBDEMS 1/1 #UKIP 25/1
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) August 26, 2014

#GE2015 LATEST BETTING WIRRAL WEST #LABOUR TARGET SEAT 50 41st from TORIES #LABOUR 5/6 #CONSERVATIVES evens #UKIP 200/1 #LIBDEMS 250/1
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) August 26, 2014

#GE2015 LATEST BETTING CHIPPENHAM #CONSERVATIVE TARGET SEAT 28 8th FROM LD #CONSERVATIVES 8/11 #LIBDEMS 5/4 #UKIP 50/1 #LABOUR 100/1
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) August 26, 2014

#GE2015 LATEST BETTING SOMERTON & FROME (LD) #CONSERVATIVES TARGET SEAT 15 5th FROM #LIBDEMS #CONSERVATIVES 1/3 #LIBDEMS 3/1 #UKIP 25/1
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) August 26, 2014

#GE2015 LATEST BETTING ODDS SOLIHULL ( #LIBDEM ) #CONSERVATIVES TARGET SEAT 3 NO.1 FROM LD #TORIES 1/3 #LIBDEMS 9/4 #LABOUR 100/1
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) August 26, 2014

#GE2015 LATEST BETTING ODDS STOCKTON SOUTH #LABOURS TARGET SEAT 7 #LABOUR 1/3 #CONSERVATIVES 9/4 #UKIP 100/1 #LIBDEMS 200/1
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) August 26, 2014

#GE2015 LATEST BETTING ODDS THANET SOUTH #UKIP 4/5 #LABOUR 2/1 #CONSERVATIVES 9/4 #LIBDEMS 100/1
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) August 26, 2014

#GE2015 LATEST BETTING ODDS #LABOURS NUMBER 1 TARGET SEAT NORTH WARWICKSHIRE #LABOUR 1/4 #CONSERVATIVES 10/3 #UKIP 50/1 #LIBDEMS 100/1
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) August 26, 2014

#GE2015 LATEST BETTING ODDS #CONSERVATIVES NUMBER 1 TARGET SEAT HAMPSTEAD & KILBURN #LABOUR 2/9 #CONSERVATIVES 9/2 #LIBDEMS 16/1
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) August 26, 2014

#GE2015 LATEST BETTING ODDS MORECAMBE & LUNSDALE #LABOUR TARGET SEAT 14 #LABOUR 1/3 #CONSERVATIVES 6/4 #LIBDEMS 100/1 #UKIP 100/1
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) August 26, 2014

TOP 50 TARGET SEAT FOR LABOUR & CONSERVATIVES

Lab Targets: (all)	2010 winner	Maj/lead over Lab	Swing Req. %	Maj/lead over Lab %		Con Targets: (swing req. <10%)	2010 winner	Maj/lead over Con	Swing Req. %	Maj/lead over Con %
Warwickshire North	Con: 1	54	0.06	0.11	1	Hampstead & Kilburn	Lab: 1	42	0.04	0.08
Thurrock	Con: 2	92	0.10	0.20	2	Bolton West	Lab: 2	92	0.10	0.19
Hendon	Con: 3	106	0.11	0.23	3	Solihull	LD: 1	175	0.16	0.32
Cardiff North	Con: 4	194	0.20	0.41	4	Southampton Itchen	Lab: 3	192	0.22	0.43
Sherwood	Con: 5	214	0.22	0.44	5	Dorset Mid & Poole North	LD: 2	269	0.29	0.57
Norwich South	LD: 1	310	0.33	0.65	6	Wirral South	Lab: 4	531	0.67	1.33
Stockton South	Con: 6	332	0.33	0.66	7	Derby North	Lab: 5	613	0.68	1.36
Broxtowe	Con: 7	389	0.37	0.74	8	Wells	LD: 3	800	0.72	1.43
Lancaster & Fleetwood	Con: 8	333	0.39	0.78	9	Dudley North	Lab: 6	649	0.84	1.68
Bradford East	LD: 2	365	0.45	0.90	10	Great Grimsby	Lab: 7	714	1.08	2.17
Amber Valley	Con: 9	536	0.58	1.17	11	Morley & Outwood	Lab: 8	1,101	1.13	2.25
Waveney	Con: 10	769	0.75	1.50	12	Telford	Lab: 9	978	1.18	2.37
Wolverhampton South West	Con: 11	691	0.86	1.72	13	Walsall North	Lab: 10	990	1.37	2.74
Morecambe & Lunesdale	Con: 12	866	1.00	1.99	14	St Austell & Newquay	LD: 4	1,312	1.39	2.78
Carlisle	Con: 13	853	1.01	2.02	15	Somerton & Frome	LD: 5	1,817	1.50	3.00
Stroud	Con: 14	1,299	1.12	2.24	16	Birmingham Edgbaston	Lab: 11	1,274	1.53	3.06
Weaver Vale	Con: 15	991	1.13	2.25	17	Sutton & Cheam	LD: 6	1,608	1.66	3.31
Lincoln	Con: 16	1,058	1.16	2.31	18	Halifax	Lab: 12	1,472	1.69	3.38
Brighton Pavilion	Grn: 1	1,252	1.21	2.42	19	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Lab: 13	1,552	1.80	3.59
Plymouth Sutton & Devonport	Con: 17	1,149	1.31	2.62	20	Middlesbrough South & Cleveland East	Lab: 14	1,677	1.81	3.63
Dewsbury	Con: 18	1,526	1.41	2.83	21	Wakefield	Lab: 15	1,613	1.81	3.63
Warrington South	Con: 19	1,553	1.42	2.83	22	St Ives	LD: 7	1,719	1.87	3.74
Brent Central	LD: 3	1,345	1.48	2.97	23	Plymouth Moor View	Lab: 16	1,588	1.91	3.82
Bedford	Con: 20	1,353	1.50	3.00	24	Gedling	Lab: 17	1,859	1.93	3.86
Brighton Kemptown	Con: 21	1,328	1.55	3.11	25	Eltham	Lab: 18	1,663	1.98	3.96
Pudsey	Con: 22	1,659	1.69	3.38	26	Walsall South	Lab: 19	1,755	2.15	4.29
Corby*	Con: 23	1,951	1.80	3.60	27	Nottingham South	Lab: 20	1,772	2.17	4.34
Brentford & Isleworth	Con: 24	1,958	1.82	3.64	28	Chippenham	LD: 8	2,470	2.36	4.72
Hove	Con: 25	1,868	1.87	3.75	29	Tooting	Lab: 21	2,524	2.49	4.98
Enfield North	Con: 26	1,692	1.90	3.81	30	Derbyshire North East	Lab: 22	2,445	2.60	5.20
Hastings & Rye	Con: 27	1,993	2.00	4.00	31	Exeter	Lab: 23	2,721	2.60	5.21
Manchester Withington	LD: 4	1,850	2.05	4.10	32	Chorley	Lab: 24	2,593	2.60	5.21
Burnley	LD: 5	1,818	2.17	4.34	33	Blackpool South	Lab: 25	1,852	2.63	5.26
Ipswich	Con: 28	2,079	2.21	4.43	34	Westminster North	Lab: 26	2,126	2.68	5.37
Dundee East	SNP: 1	1,821	2.24	4.49	35	Southampton Test	Lab: 27	2,413	2.73	5.46
Dunbartonshire East	LD: 6	2,184	2.28	4.55	36	Luton South	Lab: 28	2,329	2.76	5.52
Halesowen & Rowley Regis	Con: 29	2,023	2.30	4.60	37	Bridgend	Lab: 29	2,263	2.95	5.90
Nuneaton	Con: 30	2,069	2.32	4.63	38	Dagenham & Rainham	Lab: 30	2,630	2.97	5.95
Gloucester	Con: 31	2,420	2.38	4.77	39	Delyn	Lab: 31	2,272	3.07	6.14
Northampton North	Con: 32	1,936	2.40	4.81	40	Cheadle	LD: 9	3,272	3.12	6.23
Bury North	Con: 33	2,243	2.49	4.99	41	Cornwall North	LD: 10	2,981	3.18	6.36
Kingswood	Con: 34	2,445	2.55	5.10	42	Gower	Lab: 32	2,683	3.22	6.44
Erewash	Con: 35	2,501	2.62	5.25	43	Penistone & Stocksbridge	Lab: 33	3,049	3.28	6.55
Blackpool North & Cleveleys	Con: 36	2,150	2.65	5.30	44	Eastbourne	LD: 11	3,435	3.30	6.59
City of Chester	Con: 37	2,583	2.76	5.52	45	Birmingham Northfield	Lab: 34	2,782	3.33	6.65
Arfon	PC: 1	1,455	2.79	5.58	46	Stalybridge & Hyde	Lab: 35	2,744	3.36	6.71
Croydon Central	Con: 38	2,879	2.90	5.80	47	Harrow West	Lab: 36	3,143	3.41	6.82
Worcester	Con: 39	2,982	3.04	6.09	48	Bury South	Lab: 37	3,292	3.41	6.82
Keighley	Con: 40	2,940	3.08	6.16	49	Taunton Deane	LD: 12	3,993	3.43	6.87
Wirral West	Con: 41	2,436	3.09	6.19	50	Scunthorpe	Lab: 38	2,549	3.44	6.88