2015 UK Parliamentary Election Forecast

Something which I found on my travels http://electionforecast.co.uk/

This report was generated on 22 August 2014 at 18:32. To read commentary on the election using these forecasts, follow Election4castUK on Twitter.

Our current prediction is that there will be no overall majority, but that Labour will be the largest party with 307 seats. However, based on the historical relationships between the sources of information we are using in our forecast and the outcome of UK elections, we know there is substantial uncertainty in our forecast. The sidebar at right includes predictive probabilities of the key outcomes of the election, as well as vote and seat forecasts for each party with 90% uncertainty intervals.

• And now the party forecast...
  • Conservatives. Holding steady over the past fortnight. Seat loss probable. Majority unlikely. Plurality moderately unlikely.
  • Labour. Rising slightly. Seat gain almost certain. Majority moderately unlikely. Plurality probable.
  • Liberal Democrats. Holding steady. Seat loss almost certain.
  • SNP. Holding steady. Seat gain very likely.
  • Plaid Cymru. Holding steady. Seat gain unlikely.
  • Greens. Holding steady. Seat loss possible.
  • UKIP. Fading slightly. Seat gain very unlikely.
  
  
  

  Party	Lo	Seats	Hi	Swing
  Conservatives	233	286	346	-20
  Labour	252	307	357	49
  Liberal Democrats	10	25	42	-32
  SNP	6	8	14	2
  Plaid Cymru	3	3	4	0
  Greens	0	1	1	0
  UKIP	0	0	0	0
  Other	1	1	1	0