Saturday, 23 August 2014

2015 UK Parliamentary Election Forecast

Something which I found on my travels

This report was generated on 22 August 2014 at 18:32. To read commentary on the election using these forecasts, follow Election4castUK on Twitter.

Our current prediction is that there will be no overall majority, but that Labour will be the largest party with 307 seats. However, based on the historical relationships between the sources of information we are using in our forecast and the outcome of UK elections, we know there is substantial uncertainty in our forecast. The sidebar at right includes predictive probabilities of the key outcomes of the election, as well as vote and seat forecasts for each party with 90% uncertainty intervals.

  • And now the party forecast...
    • Conservatives. Holding steady over the past fortnight. Seat loss probable. Majority unlikely. Plurality moderately unlikely.
    • Labour. Rising slightly. Seat gain almost certain. Majority moderately unlikely. Plurality probable.
    • Liberal Democrats. Holding steady. Seat loss almost certain.
    • SNP. Holding steady. Seat gain very likely.
    • Plaid Cymru. Holding steady. Seat gain unlikely.
    • Greens. Holding steady. Seat loss possible.
    • UKIP. Fading slightly. Seat gain very unlikely.

    Party Lo Seats Hi Swing
    Conservatives 233 286 346 -20
    Labour 252 307 357 49
    Liberal Democrats 10 25 42 -32
    SNP 6 8 14 2
    Plaid Cymru 3 3 4 0
    Greens 0 1 1 0
    UKIP 0 0 0 0
    Other 1 1 1 0
Seat-by-seat predictions based on the party predicted to be most likely to win each seat.

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