Tuesday, 30 September 2014

NORTH WEST LEICESTERSHIRE VOTE SHARE 2014 (Will this be the next TORY defector seat?)

Who is the next Conservative defector from this list? <<< link to list which has two Tory MPs who have already defected and a list of more who may in the future

  Andrew Bridgen Conservative MP would he be the next to defect?

Vote share for European Parliamentary elections for NW Leicestershire

UKIP  7,995 - 35.1%
Conservatives 6,180 - 27.2%
Labour 5,234 - 23%
Greens 1,140 - 5%
LibDems 1,052 - 4.6%
Others 1,150 - 5.1%

votes cast  22,751



Prediction: CON hold 

MP: Andrew Bridgen  (CON)
County/Area: (East Midlands)
Electorate: 71,219
Turnout: 72.95%


2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
CON23,14744.55%37.93%
LAB15,63630.10%37.58%
LIB8,63916.63%2.13%
OTH3,3966.54%8.26%
UKIP1,1342.18%14.11%
CON Majority7,51114.46%Pred Maj 0.35%

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/seatdetails.pl?seat=Leicestershire%20North%20West


Implied and predicted ward-by-ward votes for Leicestershire North West

This table shows the (estimated) general election results broken down over each ward in the seat of Leicestershire North West, as well as the predicted election result ward-by-ward.
Leicestershire North WestEst. 2010 General Election ResultsPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2010		CON
Votes		LAB
Votes		LIB
Votes		Other
Votes		Total
Votes		CON
Votes		LAB
Votes		LIB
Votes		Other
Votes		Total
Votes
North West LeicestershireAppleby1,7386770355561,2685764646411,267
North West LeicestershireAshby Castle1,98498133912081,448835428151701,448
North West LeicestershireAshby Holywell3,8611,5081,007284182,8171,2841,174363232,817
North West LeicestershireAshby Ivanhoe3,6111,390959268172,6341,1831,115343022,634
North West LeicestershireBardon2,4465664046681461,784482640855771,784
North West LeicestershireBreedon1,9156931721513821,398590255195341,398
North West LeicestershireCastle Donington5,6092,1571,342568254,0921,8361,631735524,092
North West LeicestershireCoalville4,5578391,3633228013,3257141,507411,0633,325
North West LeicestershireGreenhill5,1209591,1081,4152533,7358161,5951811,1423,734
North West LeicestershireHugglescote3,6267327573298262,644623897421,0822,644
North West LeicestershireIbstock and Heather5,4571,5441,2758323293,9801,3141,6131069463,979
North West LeicestershireKegworth and Whatton3,7361,97501026482,7251,681136138952,725
North West LeicestershireMeasham3,8311,1771,274322212,7941,0021,435413152,793
North West LeicestershireMoira3,7311,3731,046285182,7221,1691,206363102,721
North West LeicestershireOakthorpe and Donisthorpe1,95958856227091,429501676352181,430
North West LeicestershireRavenstone and Packington1,95593027221871,427792388282191,427
North West LeicestershireSnibston3,8429501,034803172,8048091,3321035612,805
North West LeicestershireThringstone3,4587781,202524182,5226621,405673882,522
North West LeicestershireValley3,4411,702337461102,5101,449569594332,510
North West LeicestershireWhitwick5,3391,6281,1856634203,8961,3861,475859503,896
 Total71,21623,14715,6388,6404,52951,95219,70419,5231,10311,62151,951
Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.
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CLEETHORPES VOTE SHARE 2014 (Will this be the next TORY defector seat?)

Who is the next Conservative defector from this list? <<< link to list which has two Tory MPs who have already defected and a list of more who may in the future

  Martin Vickers Conservative MP would he be the next to defect?

Totals for local elections taken in Cleethorpes constituency, NO election happened in North Lincolnshire so no numbers for Barton & Ferry

UKIP 6,528 - 36.1%
Conservatives 5,773 - 31.9%
Labour 4,452 - 24.6%
Lib Dems 349 - 1.9%
Others 990 - 5.5%
votes cast 18,092
Ward which are in the Cleethorpes constituency are highlighted in BLUE.




ConLab LDUKIPGreenBNPTUSCInd (1)Ind (2)
North East Lincolnshire Croft Baker3521,03161885

104424

East Marsh
36990742246
22


Freshney3946318576373
32


Haverstoe1,40354713393986




Heneage40877910891897
43


Humberston & New Waltham1,062533
1,521





Immingham787960
952112
49


Park614577867796165
42


Scartho9605491791,233





Sidney Sussex36958479891

12689

South2006609769052

238

Waltham88938976664





West Marsh
434
325

32247135

Wolds911408
676





Yarborough387717175957

42












Totals, 2014
8,7369,1682,76712,632631
4921,133
%
24.5725.787.7835.521.77
1.383.19
Totals, 2010
21,64818,92117,9056,105
2,423
300
%
32.1728.1126.609.07
3.60
0.45
Changes
-7.60-2.33-18.8226.451.77-3.601.382.74



 MP: Martin Vickers  (CON)
County/Area: (Humberside)
Electorate: 70,214
Turnout: 64.04%


2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
CON18,93942.12%35.31%
LAB14,64132.56%40.49%
LIB8,19218.22%2.63%
UKIP3,1947.10%19.75%
OTH00.00%1.82%
CON Majority4,2989.56%Pred Maj 5.18%
1 http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/seatdetails.pl?seat=Cleethorpes

Implied and predicted ward-by-ward votes for Cleethorpes

This table shows the (estimated) general election results broken down over each ward in the seat of Cleethorpes, as well as the predicted election result ward-by-ward.
CleethorpesEst. 2010 General Election ResultsPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2010		CON
Votes		LAB
Votes		LIB
Votes		Other
Votes		Total
Votes		CON
Votes		LAB
Votes		LIB
Votes		Other
Votes		Total
Votes
North East LincolnshireCroft Baker8,9381,7482,2731,3773265,7241,4652,7901991,2705,724
North East LincolnshireHaverstoe7,7402,3551,1691,2272064,9571,9741,6761771,1304,957
North East LincolnshireHumberston and New Waltham8,3732,1141,2171,6903425,3631,7721,8502441,4975,363
North East LincolnshireImmingham8,5371,7482,1627508075,4671,4652,4891081,4045,466
North East LincolnshireSidney Sussex8,9931,4282,4081,5873365,7591,1972,9712291,3625,759
North East LincolnshireWaltham5,4321,7098317581803,4781,4331,1591097773,478
North East LincolnshireWolds5,5221,7328607322133,5371,4521,1811067983,537
North LincolnshireBarton8,2242,6522,012495535,2662,2232,17978575,266
North LincolnshireFerry8,4553,4531,709212325,4152,8951,91336045,415
Total70,21418,93914,6418,1913,19544,96515,87618,2081,1829,69944,965
Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.
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Monday, 29 September 2014

PETERBOROUGH VOTE SHARE 2014 (Will this be the next TORY defector seat?)

Who is the next Conservative defector from this list? <<< link to list which has two Tory MPs who have already defected and a list of more who may in the future

 Stewart Jackson Conservative MP would he be the next to defect?

Peterborough Euro 2014 vote share (difference from 2010 General Election)

UKIP 15,379 - 33.5% (+26.8%)
Conservatives 11,744 - 25.6% (-14.8%)
Labour 11,526 - 25.1% (-4.4%)
Greens 2,597 - 5.6%
LibDems 2.089 - 4.5% (-15.1%)
Others 2,578 - 5.7%

Votes cast 45,913

Vote share for Local Elections held on the same day

Highlighted in blue are the wards which fall under the Peterborough constituency

Vote totals for them

Labour 8,807 - 31.7%
Conservatives 8,120 - 29.3%
UKIP 4,912 - 17.7%
LibDems 2,419 - 8.7%
Greens 754 - 2.7%
Others 2,732 - 9.9%

Total votes cast 27,744





ConLab LDUKIPGreenBNPTUSCInd (1)Ind (2)Ind (3)Eng Dem
Peterborough Bretton North520700195782







Central7852,044

320






Dogsthorpe228610









East991805
614133






Eye & Thorney1,008327
763180
81




Fletton & Woodston739699
591165
39157



Glinton & Wittering829205
464


379



Newborough26394




570



North128372




857



Orton Longueville715672
755144
99




Orton Waterville1,169373
780206
44




Orton with Hampton937636267
284

368



Park1,1911,41074283121
12




Paston443641
752







Stanground Central957811







610

Walton228195617495







Werrington North36224269


671,145



Werrington South4912301,174521







West1,4821,137290702



















Totals, 2014
13,46612,2032,6867,5021,553
3423,476

610
%
31.2128.296.2317.393.60
0.798.06

1.41
Totals, 2010
29,53618,0646,816
1,053

5,230

2,355
%
44.9127.4710.36
1.60

7.95

3.58
Changes
-13.700.82-4.1417.392.00
0.790.10

-2.17

Electoral Calculus is predicting a Labour gain

  Prediction: LAB gain from CON 

MP: Stewart Jackson  (CON)
County/Area: (East Anglia)
Electorate: 70,316
Turnout: 63.89%


2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
CON18,13340.36%33.77%
LAB13,27229.54%37.87%
LIB8,81619.62%2.69%
UKIP3,0076.69%19.97%
OTH1,6993.78%5.69%
CON Majority4,86110.82%Pred Maj 4.10%


This table shows the (estimated) general election results broken down over each ward in the seat of Peterborough, as well as the predicted election result ward-by-ward.
PeterboroughEst. 2010 General Election ResultsPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2010		CON
Votes		LAB
Votes		LIB
Votes		Other
Votes		Total
Votes		CON
Votes		LAB
Votes		LIB
Votes		Other
Votes		Total
Votes
PeterboroughBretton North5,5781,2941,0198873653,5651,0831,3651229963,566
PeterboroughBretton South1,842740265611101,17661932682221,175
PeterboroughCentral7,0221,6902,4231332394,4851,4142,561184914,484
PeterboroughDogsthorpe5,7607627332,110743,6796381,4222891,3303,679
PeterboroughEast6,7571,9651,4833115594,3181,6441,692439404,319
PeterboroughEye and Thorney3,8641,2633804903352,4681,057603677412,468
PeterboroughNewborough1,8115501611592861,156460241224331,156
PeterboroughNorth3,7316066663977152,384507822541,0002,383
PeterboroughPark6,2361,8791,5501993583,9861,5721,719276673,985
PeterboroughPaston5,0531,4549562935263,2291,2171,130408433,230
PeterboroughRavensthorpe4,7211,1381,3823651323,0179521,559504553,016
PeterboroughWalton3,5197863319701612,2486586731337852,249
PeterboroughWerrington North4,7349635818796013,0248069051201,1923,023
PeterboroughWerrington South4,2939743421,42702,7438158341968982,743
PeterboroughWest5,3952,0689991362453,4481,7301,160195393,448
Total70,31618,13213,2718,8174,70644,92915,17217,0121,20811,53244,924
Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.
at No comments:

ROMFORD VOTE SHARE 2014 (Will this be the next TORY defector seat?)

 Who is the next Conservative defector from this list? <<< link to list which has two Tory MPs who have already defected and a list of more who may in the future

Andrew Rosindell - Romford Conservative MP would he be the next to defect?

Havering which Romford is part of showed the highest share of the vote for UKIP

Havering over all was

UKIP 27.17%
Conservatives 23.66%
Labour 14.07%

2014 Local council elections for the wards of Romford

Total for the wards which make up Romford (difference from 2010 General Election)

Conservatives 13,485 - 40.1% (-15.9%)
UKIP 10,359 - 30.8% (+26.4%)
Labour 5,742 - 17.1% (-2.4%)
INDY 1,722 - 5.1%
Greens 1,328 - 4%
LibDems 984 - 2.9% (-9.1%)

33,620 votes cast

Brooklands

Conservatives 1,758
UKIP 1,469
Labour 1,147
Indy 245
LibDem 171

Havering Park

Conservatives 1,787
UKIP 1,527
Labour 656
Green 149
LibDem 90

Hylands

Conservatives 1,596
UKIP 1,346
Labour 449
Greens 285
LibDems 68

Mawneys

Conservatives 2,028
UKIP 1,753
Labour 827
LibDems 190

Pettits

Conservatives 2,102
UKIP 1,498
Labour 942
LibDems 105

Romford Town

Conservatives 2,067
Indy 1,477
UKIP 1,467
Labour 1,118
Greens 639
LibDems 255

Squirrals Heath

Conservatives 2,147
UKIP 1,299
Labour 603
Greens 255
LibDems 105

 http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/seatdetails.pl?seat=Romford

  Prediction: CON hold 

MP: Andrew Rosindell  (CON)
County/Area: (North London)
Electorate: 71,193
Turnout: 65.29%


2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
CON26,03156.00%49.05%
LAB9,07719.53%25.98%
LIB5,57211.99%0.73%
MIN2,4385.25%5.25%
UKIP2,0504.41%14.69%
OTH1,3132.82%4.30%
CON Majority16,95436.48%Pred Maj 23.07%

Implied and predicted ward-by-ward votes for Romford

This table shows the (estimated) general election results broken down over each ward in the seat of Romford, as well as the predicted election result ward-by-ward.
RomfordEst. 2010 General Election ResultsPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2010		CON
Votes		LAB
Votes		LIB
Votes		Other
Votes		Total
Votes		CON
Votes		LAB
Votes		LIB
Votes		Other
Votes		Total
Votes
HaveringBrooklands10,9203,5692,0281,53307,1303,1262,695931,2167,130
HaveringHavering Park9,2773,5278196871,0246,0573,0891,203421,7246,058
HaveringHylands9,6773,2061,0358361,2426,3192,8081,454512,0066,319
HaveringMawneys9,5243,2151,2877071,0096,2182,8161,664431,6966,219
HaveringPettits9,7203,6588087521,1296,3473,2041,219461,8786,347
HaveringRomford Town12,1854,5681,9536248117,9564,0012,361381,5567,956
HaveringSquirrel's Heath9,8894,2881,1484345856,4553,7561,481261,1926,455
Total71,19226,0319,0785,5735,80046,48122,80012,07733911,26846,484
Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.
at No comments:

12 NHA PARTY CANDIDATES DECLARED FOR #GE2015

A list of 12 candidates from NHA PARTY WEBSITE each link is to a page on the same site for a profile of the candidate
Kathryn Anderson pic

Kathryn Anderson – Chingford & Woodford Green

Dave Ash

Dave Ash – Sutton and Cheam

IMG_6488

Roseanne Edwards – Banbury

IMG_6620

Rik Evans – Truro and Falmouth

IMG_6579

Dr Bob Gill – Old Bexley & Sidcup

paul hobday

Dr Paul Hobday – Maidstone and The Weald

Karen Howell

Karen Howell – Stafford

IMG_6514

Dr Louise Irvine – South West Surrey

Naveen Judah

Naveen Judah – Sheffield Hallam

IMG_6567

Dr Clive Peedell – Witney

Dr Richard Taylor – Wyre Forest

Carl Walker

Dr Carl Walker – East Worthing & Shoreham

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