POPULUS WEIGHTING

@PopulusPolls Which party do you most identify with UNWEIGHTED CON 28% LAB 33% LD 10% UKIP 8% WEIGHTED CON 28% LAB 31% LD 13% UKIP 1%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) September 29, 2013

http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/Online_VI_27-09-2013_BPC.pdf

Table 12

Unweighted number of 171 is weighted down to 20

http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/OmOnline_Vote_23-09-2013_BPC.pdf

Table 12 again

Unweighted number of 219 is weighted down to 20

REAL VOTES NOT OPINION POLLS

Shows a regular support of 20% Now of course this is in Tory vote areas in the majority but having taken Sevenoaks from Labour just how much of a factor is the weighting down effecting UKIP showing in opinion polls?

REAL VOTES NOT OPINION POLLS 12/9 - 26/9

This is the third time I have collated this information and so far it seems that the facts which seem to be coming out of the exercise. Is that actual votes cast are down dramatically nearly a third less people bother to vote and explains the high percentage of don't knows and won't votes in opinion polls.

UKIP is showing a big increase in vote share. Now some of this is down to simply having candidates in places they didn't before but doesn't that in itself show the growth of the party and its support.

Then you have the demise of the Independent and smaller parties from 8.9% down to 3.5% only the Green Party have bucked this trend, yet they have only just done this.

If anyone has the information it would be interesting to see how New Labour performed before 1997 and the other Labour victories. It seems that they have held their vote share with a slight decline but not gaining the Tory vote. This vote is going to UKIP. Will be interesting to see into the future when I have collated more of these results.

12th September 2013  5 by elections
17th / 19th September 2013  5 by elections
26th September 2013  10 by elections

Over the past three weeks there has been 20 by elections held with 24,306 votes cast this is down from 35,834 votes cast when the last by elections were held.

Votes in this 3 week period.

Conservatives 7,667 votes 31.5%
Labour 7,503 votes 30.9%
UKIP 5,270 votes 21.7%
Liberal Democrats 2,194 votes 9%
Green Party 839 votes 3.5%
Independents 547 votes 2.3%
Others 286 votes 1.2%

The votes when the by elections were last held

Conservatives 13,031 votes 36.4%
Labout 11,476 votes 32%
Liberal Democrats 4,108 votes 11.5%
UKIP 2,892 votes 8.1%
Independents 2,193 votes 6.1%
Green Party 1,125 votes 3.1%
Others 1,009 votes 2.8%

Change in % terms between the two elections

CON -4.9% LAB -1.1% UKIP + 13.6% LD -2.5% IND -3.8% GREEN + 0.4% OTHERS -1.6%

5th September - 19th September 2013
CON -3.1% LAB -1.7% UKIP + 12.9% LD -4.9% IND -2.2 GREEN + 1.1%

Election results for September 2013

http://www.voteyourgoat.com/election/results/1/2013/9

MILIBANDS ENERGY BILL PLEDGES NOT ENOUGH TO WIN SEPTEMBER VOTE. Following the recent Labour conference in which Ed Milliband vowed a freeze on energy bills, Labour continued to make small inroads in the voteyourgoat election, however it was not enought to gain overall majority. Labours 6% increase on last months election was largely gained from the smaller parties as the Conservatives continue to dominate the elections with an overall majority. The public remain unconvinced by Mr Milibands lack of clear direction on other key issues including the environment. Consistent with previous months, UK independence continues to be a key political issue as UKIP once again came third.

Geographic Breakdown

Overall

	Conservative	27.14%
	UK Independence Party	21.43%
	Labour	20.00%
	Liberal Democrat	8.57%
	National Health Action Party	8.57%
	Undecided	4.29%
	Green	4.29%
	Scottish National Party	2.86%
	Independent	1.43%
	Ni21	1.43%

England

	Conservative	30.00%
	UK Independence Party	21.67%
	Labour	20.00%
	National Health Action Party	10.00%
	Liberal Democrat	6.67%
	Undecided	5.00%
	Green	3.33%
	Scottish National Party	1.67%
	Independent	1.67%

Scotland

	Labour	33.33%
	Scottish National Party	33.33%
	Green	33.33%

Wales

	Liberal Democrat	33.33%
	UK Independence Party	33.33%
	Conservative	16.67%
	Labour	16.67%

Northern Ireland

Ni21

100.00%

Weighting game.

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/4gkqazgybo/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-260913.pdf

Link to the latest you gov polling. When you go to the bottom of the tables you will see the weighting they put to each figure they get. Now populus has UKIP drop from 11% down to 1% when they weight their figures. It seems you gov simply mix UKIP in with the others so I have asked them specifically what the ratio is which they use. I await a reply.

But is this giving false readings?

unweighted v weighted figs for YouGov

LAB 614 - 612
CON 496 - 500
LD 160 - 210 So they round the LD's up by around 33%
SNP/PC 42 - 33
OTHERS 128 - 44 yet others suffer a 66% decrease.

Even stranger is the below share of the vote from last nights by election, and this is not a blip but averaging figures for the last month or so.

With 6 by election results in from last night.

Vote share is
CON 29.8%
LAB 26.7%
UKIP 25.9%
LD 12.1%
GREENS 2.2%
OTHERS 3.3%

So if anything the Lib Dems are on their knees and being propped up by the weighting and UKIP are more than holding their own yet dragged down by weighting.

More real votes not opinion polls will be available when all the election results are know and collated.

APATHY PARTY WITH 3% LEAD

http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/Online_VI_20-09-2013_BPC.pdf

It seems the UK public will either not vote or don't know who to vote for. (see table 2 in above link)

In this recent populus poll

Don't Know/ Won't vote had 30%
Labour 27%
Conservatives 22%
Lib Dems 8%
UKIP 6%
Greens 2%
SNP 2%

The weighting game

I have always said real votes are better than polls, and here is an example of weighting used by populus.

THE WEIGHTING GAME POPULUS POLLING Which party do you identify with? Unweighted UKIP 219 = 11% Weighted UKIP 20 = 1%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) September 25, 2013

http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/OmOnline_Vote_23-09-2013_BPC.pdf

The information can be found on table 12 and it seems the results are skewed towards none when they readjust the information.

Maybe http://ukgeneralelection2015.blogspot.co.uk/p/real-votes-not-opinion-polls.html could help them see that UKIP are getting a lot of support and it can't be weighted away.

The Mavis Riley factor

It seems that apathy and dithering rules. With 23% of those asked who they will vote for either don't know or won't be voting.

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/7kopy0akql/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-240913.pdf

YOUGOV POLL Including Don't Knows & won't vote LABOUR 33.2% CONSERVATIVE 26.6% DK/WV 22.3% LIBDEM 9.6% OTHERS 6.5% SNP/PC 1.8%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) September 25, 2013

YOUGOV POLL Don't Knows & won't vote = 23% Men 18% Women 28% age 18-24 = 29% 25-39 = 28% 60+ = 18% Londoners 28% Scots 14%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) September 25, 2013

YOUGOV POLL Don't knows & wont vote #GE2010 voter LD 23% CON 18% LAB 14% ABC1 20% C2DE 28% North of England 25% South of England 21%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) September 25, 2013

LATEST YOUGOV POLLING

YOUGOV POLLING ABC1 voter LAB 37% CON 35% LD 12% UKIP 9% NAT 3% GREEN 2% C2DE voter LAB 44% CON 27% UKIP 16% LD 7% NAT 3% GREEN 2%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) September 24, 2013

YOUGOV POLLING AGE 18-24 LAB 47% CON 26% UKIP 11% LD 10% GREEN 4% AGE 60+ CON 37% LAB 34% UKIP 17% LD 9% NAT 2%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) September 24, 2013

YOUGOV POLLING I just don't know who to vote for. 11% MEN 18% WOMEN AGE 21% 18-24 15% 24_39 14% 40+ #GE2010voter CON 13% LAB 10% LD 18%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) September 24, 2013

lhttp://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/lws2ax76rf/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-230913.pdf

UK General Election 2015 Probability of each outcome:

		1 day	7 day
Hung Parliament	40.45%
Labour Majority	34.27%
Conservative Majority	24.67%
Other Party Majority	0.62%
Updates every hour. Last Updated: 07:00:41, Tue 24 September 2013

Percentage outcome based on the Betfair back price for each selection, compensating for the overround.
Any discrepancy between the total probability and 100% is due to rounding.

DUNFERMLINE MSP NOMINATIONS

Candidates nominated

Peter Adams........................ UK Independence Party (UKIP)
John Black..........................Independent
Cara Hilton......................... Scottish Labour Party
Zara Kitson......................... Scottish Green Party
Susan Leslie........................ Scottish Liberal Democrats
James Reekie....................... Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party
Shirley-Anne Somerville..............Scottish National Party (SNP)

Labour 4/11
SNP has shortened to 2/1
Lib Dems have gone out to 33/1
Conservatives 150/1

DUNFERMLINE MSP CANDIDATES 6 SO FAR

Shirley-Anne Somerville confirmed as SNP candidate

Cara Hilton for Labour

Cllr Susan Leslie for the libdems.

James Reekie for the Conservatives

Zara Kitson has been selected as the Green candidate

Peter Adams for UKIP


Latest odds

Labour 4/11
SNP 2/1
Libdems 33/1
Conservatives 150/1

REAL VOTES NOT OPINION POLLS 05/09/13-19/09/13

 Week number 2 of REAL VOTES NOT OPINION POLLS. I have seen a few of the comments around the net saying that this exercise is pointless to the point of it being set against varying election dates, such as last contested could be in several different years. Also that local issues have more of a baring. I understand and take those views on board, but as I stated in the first week this is an exercise on real votes cast, not replies to online or telephone polls. Someone has had to take the time to actually vote not just tell someone what they think they want to hear and then for that pollster to weight it.

There is over 23,000 votes so a large sample size. at present both Conservatives and Labour see a decline against past election results with UKIP making double digit gains where as Lib Dems are seeing huge losses. With the Green Party 25% up on previous elections in real terms up a 1% from 3 to 4.


Below is the last three weeks



17th/19th SEPTEMBER BY ELECTION RESULTS
12TH SEPTEMBER BY ELECTION RESULTS
5TH SEPTEMBER BY ELECTION RESULTS

There were 20 by elections with 23,069 votes cast

Conservatives 7,849 votes 34.02%
Labour 6,149 votes 26.65%
UKIP 4,713 votes 20.43%
Liberal Democrats 2,053 votes 8.9%
Independents 1,192 votes 5.17%
Green Party 977 votes 4.24%
BNP 120 votes 0.52%
NF 16 votes 0.07%

Votes cast when all these by elections were last held.

Conservatives 13,085 votes 37.15%
Labour 9,975 votes 28.32%
Liberal Democrats 4,856 votes 13.79%
UKIP 3,020 votes 8.57%
Independents 2,598 votes 7.37%
Green Party 1,093 3.10%
English Dem 367 votes 1.04%
BBI 182 votes 0.51%
TUSC 41 votes 0.11%

35,217 votes cast in total

Conservative down 3.13%
Labour down 1.67%
UKIP up 12.86%
Liberal Democrats down 4.89%
Independents down 2.2%
Green Party up 1.14%

Change from last weeks

29th August - 12th September 2013
CON -3.2% LAB -3.7% UKIP + 12.7% LD -2% IND -2.9% GREEN  + 1%

LATEST YOUGOV POLLING

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/ck8u49i0dw/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-180913.pdf

YOU GOV POLLING SCOTTISH VOTING INTENTION LABOUR 33% SNP 26% CONSERVATIVES 25% LIBDEMS 9% UKIP 3% GREENS 3%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) September 19, 2013

YOU GOV POLL #GE2010 VOTERS UKIP have gained 18% of Conservatives 12% of LibDems 5% of Labour. Greens have gained 6% of LibDems
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) September 19, 2013

YOU GOV POLLING Who has kept their #ge2010 vote the most? #Labour 85% #Conservatives 77% #LibDems 35%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) September 19, 2013

DUNFERMLINE MSP BY ELECTION CANDIDATES... (SO FAR)

Shirley-Anne Somerville confirmed as SNP candidate

Cara Hilton for Labour

Cllr Susan Leslie for the libdems.

James Reekie for the Conservatives

Zara Kitson has been selected as the Green candidate


Latest odds

Labour 1/3
SNP 9/4
Libdems 25/1
Conservatives 150/1

CAN THE CONSERVATIVES WIN THE NEXT ELECTION?

Something very interesting I found on my travels. What are your thoughts?

Each election since 1983 is represented by a two-segment line which shows the state of the major parties in the run-up to the election. The line shows where their poll support was at (a) two years before the election (start of the line), (b) one year before the election (shown by a small dot), and (c) the election result itself (marked with a labelled dot). The average opinion poll support over the summer of 2013 (May to August) is marked with a grey circle.
Read the analysis and conclusions from this data to see if the Conservatives can win.

LATEST POLITICAL BETS

A selection of political bets that might interest you.

Price for @nick_clegg to be replaced as LibDem leader before #UKGENERALELECTION2015 slashed from 4/1 to 5/2
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) September 17, 2013

UK EURO ELECTIONS Most seats Lab 4/5 UKIP 7/4 Con 9/2 LD 33/1 Green 100/1 Most votes UKIP 5/4 LAB 15/8 CON 4/1 LD 125/1
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) September 17, 2013

Dunfermline By Election Outrights Labour 1/3 SNP 9/4 Lib Dems 25/1 Conservatives 150/1
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) September 17, 2013

REAL VOTES NOT OPINION POLLS

Opinion polls do have their uses, but you can never actually beat real life votes. Those where, no matter what the weather or inclination of the person. They take time out from their lives to go and cast their vote. It isn't just simply some anonymous telephone record or computer survey.

Now I will start on a three weekly cycle collating the votes from council by elections and then comparing them with when the same election was last held in that ward. Now yes it is not perfect you could end up with more wards held by a particular party being fought over. This is why the comparison will be made with when the last time the election was held.

I think it will give a more honest state of affairs when coming to polling and will see how it compares with the national opinion polls. Obviously unless there is elections in Scotland or Wales there won't be included but then again even the largest pollster has been making assumptions on an areas voting pattern on only double digit samples. This should regularly have a sample of between 10 to 20 thousands dependent on by elections in a three week cycle.

Below is the last three weeks

12TH SEPTEMBER BY ELECTION RESULTS
5TH SEPTEMBER BY ELECTION RESULTS
29TH AUGUST BY ELECTION RESULT

It consisted of 16 by elections. and has a sample of 15,548 votes

The votes cast from all the previous by elections were as follows.

Conservatives 9,403 - 38.46%
Labour 6,413 - 26.23%
Lib Dems 3,248 - 13.29%
Independents 2,596 - 10.62%
UKIP 1,602 - 6.55%
Green Party 637 - 2.61%
English Democrats 367 - 1.50%
BBI 182 - 0.74%

TOTAL 24,448 votes

Total votes from the 16 by elections.

Conservatives 5,479 - 35.24%
Labour 3,499 - 22.50%
UKIP 2,988 - 19.21%
Lib Dems 1,755 - 11.28%
Independents 1,192 - 7.67%
Green Party 555 - 3.57%

TOTAL 15,548 votes

Difference between when the elections were last fought and this past three weeks.

Conservatives - 3.22%
Labour - 3.73%
UKIP + 12.66%
Lib Dems - 2.01%
Independents - 2.95%
Green Party + 0.96%
Eng Dem & BBI - 2.24%

SEPTEMBERS PARTY POLITICAL CYBER WARRIORS

So it seems there is a variance between TWITTER and Facebook. The Lib Dems have seen a decline in Facebook followers which has aided the BNP to overtake them. But have seen an increase in Twitter followers. UKIP on the other hand have seen much bigger increases in Facebook followership than Twitter. Labour have done well on both and have grown again. Conservatives have lost their gains from last month on Facebook yet gain on Twitter. With the Green party being steady on both social media sites. NHA Party showing stronger growth on Twitter with being the 2nd biggest gainer.

TWITTER

as of September 15th 10.10 PM

PARTY / SEPTEMBERS FOLLOWERS / AUGUSTS FOLLOWERS / DIFFERENCE +/-
  
@UKLabour 99,150 / 95,188 / 3,962
@Conservatives 91,710 / 90,089 / 1,621
@LibDems 48,264 / 46,697 / 1,567
@TheGreenParty 43,310 / 41,976 / 1,334
@UKIP 30,307 / 29,557 / 750
@theSNP 22,890 / 22,327 / 563
@NHAparty 16,928 / 14,113 / 2,815
@Plaid_Cymru 7,775 / 7,610 / 165
@bnp 5,962 / 5,866 / 96
@LoonyPartyNews 4,860 / 4,829 / 31
@MebyonKernow 2,787 / 2,762 / 25
@RepublicanSF 2,181 / 2,098 / 83
@TUSCoalition 1,588 / 1,510 / 78
@RespectPartyUK 1,404 / 1,373 / 31
@EnglishDemocrat 329 / 325 / 4

BIGGEST GAINERS 

Labour 3,962
NHA Party 2,815
Conservatives 1,621
Lib Dems 1,567
Green Party 1,334
UKIP 750

FACEBOOK LIKES (when over 100,000 it is stated in thousands  1k)

PARTY / SEPTEMBERS LIKES / AUGUSTS LIKES / DIFFERENCE +/-
 
CONSERVATIVES  159K / 160K / -1K
LABOUR 149K / 148K / 1K
BNP 91,702 / 91,027 / 675
LIB DEMS 91,473 / 91,779 / -306
UKIP 47,990 / 46,354 / 1,636
SNP 27,664 / 27,185 / 479
THE GREEN PARTY 21,889 / 21,022 / 867
LOONY PARTY 11,867 / 11,865 / 2
PLAID CYMRU 7,793 / 7,764 /  29
NHA PARTY 4,893 / 4,756 / 137
MEBYON KERNOW 563 / 550 / 13

BIGGEST GAINERS 

UKIP 1,636
Labour 1k 
Green Party 867

BIGGEST LOSERS

Conservatives 1K
Lib Dems 306

If you would like to view more of my political pop charts follow the link below

http://ukgeneralelection2015.blogspot.co.uk/p/political-pop-chart.html

UK General Election 2015 Probability of each outcome:

		1 day	7 day
Hung Parliament	40.35%
Labour Majority	34.63%
Conservative Majority	24.41%
Other Party Majority	0.61%
Updates every hour. Last Updated: 19:00:24, Sun 15 September 2013

Percentage outcome based on the Betfair back price for each selection, compensating for the overround.
Any discrepancy between the total probability and 100% is due to rounding.

17th/19th COUNCIL BY ELECTIONS

In case you don't know the council by election service has been moved to the companion blog THE POLLS HAVE NOW CLOSED

 

COUNCIL BY ELECTIONS 17th/19th SEPTEMBER

 Click the link for the information about the by election you are interested in, it will show candidates, Past election results, Ward map & ONS DATA

WOKING - Maybury and Sheerwater BY ELECTION

CANTERBURY - Seasalter COUNCIL BY ELECTION

DUDLEY - Coseley East COUNCIL BY ELECTION

EAST HAMPSHIRE - Four Marks and Medstead COUNCIL BY ELECTION

OXFORD - North COUNCIL BY ELECTION

What is being defended?

Collective votes from when these by elections were last held.

Conservatives 3,962 votes 33.4%
Labour 3,609 votes 30.4%
Liberal Democrats 2,216 votes 18.6%
UKIP 1,418 votes 11.9%
Green Party 456 votes 3.8%
NF 171 votes 1.4%
TUSC 41 votes 0.3%

11,873 votes cast in total

Party's contending this time

Conservatives 5
Labour 5
UKIP 4
Green Party 4
Lib Dems 3
BNP 1
NF 1

Yesterdays by election results round up

The companion blog now has all the council results, but here is the round up

Click the links for the result information

CENTRAL BEDFORDSHIRE Dunstable Northfields BY ELECTION RESULT (INDY GAIN)

CHARNWOOD Wreake Villages BY ELECTION RESULT (CON HOLD)

EAST LINDSEY - Frithville BY ELECTION RESULT (CON GAIN)

HERTFORDSHIRE Hitchin North BY ELECTION RESULT (LAB HOLD)

NORTH HERTFORDSHIRE - Hitchin Oughton BY ELECTION RESULT (LAB HOLD)

What was being defended from when the elections were last held?

Conservatives 3,218 votes 37.5%
Labour 3,012 - 35.1%
Independents 1,323 - 15.4%
Green Party 582 - 6.8%
Liberal Democrats 435 - 5.1% 

And total votes from last nights result.

Conservatives 1.775 votes 33.7%
Labour 1,640 votes 31.1%
UKIP 860 votes 16.3%
Independents 434 votes 8.3%
Lib Dems 312 votes 5.9%
Green Party 249 votes 4.7%

General Election prediction

Current Prediction: Labour majority 66

Party	2010 Votes	2010 Seats	Pred Votes	Pred Seats
CON	36.97%	307	31.41%	238
LAB	29.66%	258	37.11%	358
LIB	23.56%	57	10.52%	23
UKIP	3.17%	0	12.56%	0
NAT	2.26%	9	2.78%	12
MIN	4.37%	19	5.62%	19

Prediction based on opinion polls from 09 Aug 13 to 03 Sep 13, sampling 9,955 people. 

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html 

12th September COUNCIL BY ELECTIONS

  Just to remind you that the council by elections have moved to the companion blog of http://thepollshavenowclosed.blogspot.co.uk/

Click the link for Candidates, Past election results, Ward maps & ONS DATA

NORTH HERTFORDSHIRE - Hitchin Oughton

HERTFORDSHIRE - Hitchin North

EAST LINDSEY - Frithville

CHARNWOOD - Wreake Villages

CENTRAL BEDFORDSHIRE - Dunstable Northfields

Contending

Conservatives 5
UKIP 4
Labour 4
Liberal Democrats 3
Green Party 2
Independents 1

What is being defended from when the elections were last held?

Conservatives 3,218 votes 37.5%
Labour 3,012 - 35.1%
Independents 1,323 - 15.4%
Green Party 582 - 6.8%
Liberal Democrats 435 - 5.1%

PRIME MINISTERS QUESTIONS 11TH SEPTEMBER 2013

Nigel Evans Independent MP statement

IPSOS MORI POLLING

http://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Polls/sept13_PolMon_tables.PDF

IPSOS MORI POLL LAB 37 (-3); CON 34 (+4); UKIP 11 (n/c) LIB DEM 10 (n/c);
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) September 11, 2013

IPSOS MORI POLL Male voting intention CON 38% LAB 31% UKIP 15% LD 9% SNP 4% Female voting LAB 42% CON 31% LD 11% UKIP 8% GREEN 3%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) September 11, 2013

IPSOS MORI POLL By Age 18-34 LAB 51% CON 25% LD 15% UKIP 4% 35-54 LAB 38% CON 32% UKIP 11% LD 10% 55+ CON 40% LAB 30% UKIP 14% LD 8%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) September 11, 2013

Dunfermline By Election Winning Party Betting Odds

Bet Victor is the first to announce a market

LABOUR 1/2
SNP 6/4
LIB DEMS 10/1
CONSERVATIVES 200/1

Political party income in 2012

The most recent accounts submitted to the Electoral Commission show that of the three main parties, Labour generated the most income, with £33 million received in 2012.

The chart and table below show where the parties got their money from last year.
Continue reading the main story

Party finances 2012
	Conservative	Labour	Lib Dem
Breakdown according to how the parties themselves identify specific areas of income.
Affiliations (Unions)		7,965,000
Affinity income			29,599
Commercial activity	621,000	3,373,000
Conferences	4,279,000		1,463,792
Donations	14,607,000	5,162,000	1,494,274
Fundraising	456,000	649,000
Grants	322,000	6,656,000	817,787
Interest		62,000
Investment	49,000		66
Legacies	99,000	119,000
Membership	747,000	5,508,000	890,251
Newspaper income			99,397
Notional income	779,000	780,000	213,466
Recharges to party bodies			769,449
Other	2,289,000	2,750,000	245,462
Total	£24,248,000	£33,024,000	£6,023,543

Notes:

• Affinity income: Money received from joint commercial ventures, such as sponsored credit cards.
• Government grants: 'Short money', given to the opposition, and policy development grants available to all political parties.
• Notional income: Value of goods and services, ie. seconded staff
• Recharges to public bodies: Income received by Lib Dems from the branches of the party in England, Scotland and Wales.

DUNFERMLINE MSP BYELECTION SET FOR 24th OCTOBER 2013

Date set for by-election in Bill Walker's Dunfermline seat

The Dunfermline by-election to find a replacement for disgraced former MSP Bill Walker will be held on 24 October.

The date was announced by the Scottish Parliament's Presiding Officer Tricia Marwick.
Walker resigned his seat under pressure after being found guilty of 23 counts of domestic abuse.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-24045317

RIBBLE VALLEY CONSTITUENCY MAP AND MAYS COUNCIL ELECTION RESULTS

https://maps.google.co.uk/maps?q=http://mapit.mysociety.org/area/65579.kml

Above is the ward map.

TOTAL VOTES

CONSERVATIVES 10511 51.23%
LABOUR 4868 23.73%
UKIP 1901 9.26% ONLY STOOD IN THREE OUT OF SEVEN OF THE WARDS
LIBERAL DEMOCRATS 1713 8.35% ONLY STOOD IN FIVE OUT OF SEVEN WARDS

NO DESCRIPTION (was actually the UKIP GE candidate for 2010) 1016 5.78% ONLY STOOD IN ONE OUT OF SEVEN OF THE WARDS
IDLE TOAD PARTY 505 2.46%

2917 When adding UKIP with the no Description. 14.21%

20514 VOTES IN TOTAL

South Ribble Rural East - Divisional result

Party	Candidate	Votes
Conservative	Barrie Yates   (ELECTED)	1288
Labour	Cameron Crook	616
UK Independence Party	Neil Anyon	557
The Idle Toad	Tom Sharratt	505

Division summary

Majority	Eligible Voters	Total Votes	Spoilt Votes	Turnout
672	9842	2972	6	30.2%

Farington - Divisional result

Party	Candidate	Votes
Conservative	Mike Otter   (ELECTED)	980
Labour	Ken Jones	958
UK Independence Party	David Duxbury	499
Liberal Democrats	Judith Davidson	107

Division summary

Majority	Eligible Voters	Total Votes	Spoilt Votes	Turnout
22	8767	2555	11	29.14%

Bamber Bridge & Walton-le-Dale - Divisional result

Party	Candidate	Votes
Labour	David Watts   (ELECTED)	1151
Conservative	Peter Mullineaux	1120
UK Independence Party	David Smithies	594

Division summary

Majority	Eligible Voters	Total Votes	Spoilt Votes	Turnout
31	10141	2875	10	28.35%

Ribble Valley South West - Divisional result

Party	Candidate	Votes
Conservative	Alan Schofield   (ELECTED)	2129
Labour	Paul Atkinson	565
Liberal Democrats	Valerie Cooper	236

Division summary

Majority	Eligible Voters	Total Votes	Spoilt Votes	Turnout
1564	10838	2978	48	27.48%

Ribble Valley North East - Divisional result

Party	Candidate	Votes
Conservative	Albert Atkinson   (ELECTED)	1970
UK Independence Party	Simon Kerins	845
Labour	Mike Rose	574
Liberal Democrats	Simon O'Rourke	231

Division summary

Majority	Eligible Voters	Total Votes	Spoilt Votes	Turnout
1125	12193	3729	109	30.58%

Longridge with Bowland - Divisional result

Party	Candidate	Votes
Conservative	David Smith   (ELECTED)	1932
Labour	Gill Rose	626
Liberal Democrats	James Shervey	207

Division summary

Majority	Eligible Voters	Total Votes	Spoilt Votes	Turnout
1306	11294	2794	29	24.74%

Clitheroe - Divisional result

Party	Candidate	Votes
Conservative	Ian Brown   (ELECTED)	1061
No Description	Steve Rush	1016
Liberal Democrats	Allan Knox	932
Labour	David Hinder	378

Division summary

Majority	Eligible Voters	Total Votes	Spoilt Votes	Turnout
45	12012	3398	11	28.29%

PROBABILITY OF THE 2015 GENERAL ELECTION RESULT

UK General Election 2015

Probability of each outcome TODAY:

		1 day	7 day
Hung Parliament	40.13%
Labour Majority	34.47%
Conservative Majority	24.79%
Other Party Majority	0.61%
Updates every hour. Last Updated: 06:00:26, Tue 10 September 2013

Percentage outcome based on the Betfair back price for each selection, compensating for the overround.
Any discrepancy between the total probability and 100% is due to rounding.

PROBABILITY ON THE 22ND JANUARY 2013

UK General Election 2015

Predicted outcome:

		1 day	7 day
Labour Majority	43.48%
Hung Parliament	35.04%
Conservative Majority	21.17%
Other Party Majority	0.30%
Updates every hour. Last Updated: 22:01:46, Tue 22 January 2013

Percentage outcome based on the Betfair back price for each selection, com

Sarah Teather to stand down as Lib Dem MP at 2015 election

'Black moment'

Ms Teather told the Observer she was stepping down because "she no longer feels that Nick Clegg's party fights sufficiently for social justice and liberal values on immigration".
It quoted her as saying that Mr Clegg's tougher approach to immigration - including a plan for some immigrants to pay a £1,000 deposit when applying for visas - left her feeling "desolate" and "catastrophically depressed".

Continue reading the main story

“Start Quote

I have disagreed with both government and official party lines on a whole range of welfare and immigration policies, and those differences have been getting larger rather than smaller”

Sarah Teather

"It was an absolutely black moment. I couldn't even move from my seat when I read it. I was so depressed I couldn't even be angry. I was utterly desolate," she is quoted as saying.

She also pointed to her party's decision to back the Tories' planned cap on welfare, while she was in government.
"It was the moment of realising that my own party was just as afraid of public opinion as the Labour Party. Something did break for me that was never, ever repaired," she said.
In the statement on her website, she said: "For various reasons, to do with some aspects of government policy and the very particular issues that brought me to politics in the first place, I now feel that come the next general election, it will be the right time for me to step aside."

POPULUS POLLING

http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/Online_VI_06-09-2013_BPC.pdf

POPULUS POLLAbsolute certainty to vote 10/1060% of Men45% of WomenBy age18-24 24%25-34 42%35-44 46%45-54 57%55-64 61%65+ 71%

— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) September 7, 2013

POPULUS POLL Male voting LAB 34% CON 34% LD 14% UKIP 10% SNP 4% GREEN 2% Females LAB 40% CON 32% LD 13% UKIP 6% GREEN 5% SNP 3%

— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) September 7, 2013

POPULUS POLL Votng intention by age 25-34 LAB 49% CON 22% LD 20% SNP 4% UKIP 3% GREEN 2% 65+ CON 41% LAB 26% LD 16% UKIP 15% GREEN 1%

— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) September 7, 2013

What would have last Thursday given us?

National Prediction: CON majority 154

Party	2010 Votes	2010 Seats	Pred Votes	Gains	Losses	Pred Seats
CON	36.97%	307	36.40%	95	0	402
LAB	29.66%	258	19.30%	0	73	185
LIB	23.56%	57	10.70%	0	31	26
UKIP	3.17%	0	22.40%	5	0	5
NAT	2.26%	9	2.26%	3	0	12
MIN	0.89%	19	0.89%	1	0	20
OTH	3.48%	0	8.05%	0	0	0

In yesterdays blog post  REAL VOTES, NOT TELEPHONE POLLS
it showed that there is a big difference at present between the pollsters and actual votes cast.

Now it seems when parties have overcome the hurdle of media hype they then have to contend with FPTP. FPTP v PROPORTIONAL VOTING shows a survey in which the intentions of someones voting changes when they vote in a FPTP election compared to a Proportional election. The major parties lose out by double digit percentages.

So as you can see from the above table, and it is only a calculus guess at best many variables can't be calculated. Conservatives win a large majority and although Labour come third in the share of the vote they are easily second. A party which comes a distant 4th namely the Lib Dems still win more seats than the party which comes 2nd UKIP.

Now this could be showing up the fault of the electoral calculus site. But also I think it shows the fault of the FPTP. Concentrated voting keeps parties in power or at least at the table to feast. Where as having a solid support but spread across the country will not get you into a decision making position.

Will this ultimately disenfranchise the voter? Well considering the vote was down by over a third on Thursday compared with when the by elections were last held. I think the winner is apathy and this allows people to keep power with a under represented proportion of the populations support.

In this formula if less than 50% of the population vote in the next General Election, and Labour or Conservatives win with 30% of the vote then it is conceivable that the country will be run by a party that only 16% of the country actually voted for.

What are your thoughts?

REAL VOTES, NOT TELEPHONE POLLS

 http://thepollshavenowclosed.blogspot.co.uk/ 
Find all the results on the sister blog to this one at the above link.

Break down of votes

Conservatives 3,456 votes 36.4% ( - 3.1%)
UKIP 2,128 votes 22.4% ( + 11.7%)
Labour 1,830 votes 19.3% ( - 3.2%)
Lib Dems 1,012 votes 10.7% ( -4.1%)
Independents 758 votes 8% ( - 0.5%)
Green Party 306 votes 3.2% ( + 2.9%)

English Dem & BBI didn't stand so -3.65%

9,490 votes in total a drop of 5 and a half thousand votes cast since the last time the same elections were held.

(correction due to poorly uploaded form on the St Edmundsbury website 100 more votes for UKIP)


What was being defended?

List of votes from when each election was last held.

CONSERVATIVES had 9 candidates totaling 5,905 votes = 39.5%
LABOUR had 7 candidates totaling 3,354 votes = 22.44%
LIBDEMS had 8 candidates totaling 2,205 votes = 14.75%
UKIP had 4 candidates totaling 1,602 votes = 10.72%
INDEPENDENTS had 3 candidates totaling 1,273 votes = 8.51%
ENGLISH DEM had 2 candidates totaling 367 votes = 2.45%
BOSTON INDEPENDENTS had 1 candidate with 182 votes = 1.2%
GREEN PARTY had 1 candidate with 55 votes = 0.36%

In these elections there is now

10 UKIP candidates (up 6)
10 CONSERVATIVES (up1)
9 LABOUR (up2)
6 LIBDEMS (down2)
2 GREEN (up1)
4 INDEPENDENTS (up1)
NO ENGLISH DEM OR BOSTON INDEPENDENTS this time.

BUMPER DAY FOR COUNCIL BY ELECTIONS

There is ten, Yes! TEN by elections today. Now I have split what I do into two. You have all the General Election 2015 stuff being kept here, and the council by election results and information has moved to my other blog. THE POLLS HAVE NOW CLOSED
Feel free to bookmark it, link to it and share to your hearts content.

Click the links below for the information you would like to find out, such as Candidates, Past results, ONS data & Ward maps.

BOSTON - FENSIDE

CARLISLE - YEWDALE

CHARNWOOD - LOUGHBOROUGH ASHBY

CORNWALL - WADEBRIDGE EAST

DAVENTRY - RAVENSTHORPE

EAST CAMBRIDGESHIRE - ELY EAST

NORTHAMPTONSHIRE - MIDDLETON CHENEY

ST EDMUNDSBURY - BARDWELL

TORRIDGE - TORRINGTON

WYCOMBE - HAMBLEDEN VALLEY

What is being defended?

List of votes from when each election was last held.

CONSERVATIVES had 9 candidates totaling 5,905 votes = 39.5%
LABOUR had 7 candidates totaling 3,354 votes = 22.44%
LIBDEMS had 8 candidates totaling 2,205 votes = 14.75%
UKIP had 4 candidates totaling 1,602 votes = 10.72%
INDEPENDENTS had 3 candidates totaling 1,273 votes = 8.51%
ENGLISH DEM had 2 candidates totaling 367 votes = 2.45%
BOSTON INDEPENDENTS had 1 candidate with 182 votes = 1.2%
GREEN PARTY had 1 candidate with 55 votes = 0.36%

In these elections there is now

10 UKIP candidates (up 6)
10 CONSERVATIVES (up1)
9 LABOUR (up2)
6 LIBDEMS (down2)
2 GREEN (up1)
4 INDEPENDENTS (up1)
NO ENGLISH DEM OR BOSTON INDEPENDENTS this time.

AUGUSTS POLL OF POLLS

These are the August 2013 voting intention poll averages (with changes from July, where applicable). There were 36 polls last month in which the fieldwork ended on a date last month (comprising 21 YouGov, 8 Populus, 2 Opinium, 1 ComRes, 2 Survation, 1 ICM, 1 Ipsos-MORI).

All polls
Lab 38 (=), Con 32 (=), UKIP 12 (=), LD 10 (=)

YouGov
Lab 39 (=), Con 33 (+1), UKIP 12 (=), LD 10 (=)

Survation
Lab 37 (+1), Con 29 (+3), UKIP 18 (-3), LD 11 (+1)

Populus
Lab 39 (=), Con 32 (=), LD 12 (=), UKIP 10 (+1)

Opinium
Lab 36 (-3), Con 29 (+1), UKIP 18 (=), LD 9 (+2)

ComRes
Lab 37 (=), Con 28 (-3), UKIP 19 (+4), LD 8 (-1)

Ipsos-MORI
Lab 40, Con 30, UKIP 11, LD 10

ICM
Lab 35 (-1), Con 32 (-4), LD 14 (+1), UKIP 10 (+3)

PRIME MINISTER'S QUESTIONS 4TH SEPTEMBER 2013

LATEST COMRES POLLING

COM RES POLLING 100% ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN TO VOTE BY AGE 18-24 - 27% of voters 25-34 - 32% 35-44 - 43% 45-54 - 54% 55-64 - 54% 65+ - 58%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) September 2, 2013

COM RES POLLING 100% ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN TO VOTE BY PARTY SNP 74% of their voters CON 68% UKIP 67% LAB 57% LIBDEM 51% GREEN 43% PLAID 27%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) September 2, 2013

COM RES POLLING Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as...? LAB 28% DON'T KNOW 21% CON 21% REFUSED 10% LIBDEM 8% UKIP 4% GREEN 2%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) September 2, 2013

http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/Independent_Political_Poll_3_September_2013.pdf

Probable outcome of UK General Election 2015

Probability of each outcome:

		1 day	7 day
Hung Parliament	40.39%
Labour Majority	34.95%
Conservative Majority	24.04%
Other Party Majority	0.62%
Updates every hour. Last Updated: 08:00:44, Mon 2 September 2013

Percentage outcome based on the Betfair back price for each selection, compensating for the overround.
Any discrepancy between the total probability and 100% is due to rounding.