REAL VOTES NOT OPINION POLLS 05/09/13-19/09/13

 Week number 2 of REAL VOTES NOT OPINION POLLS. I have seen a few of the comments around the net saying that this exercise is pointless to the point of it being set against varying election dates, such as last contested could be in several different years. Also that local issues have more of a baring. I understand and take those views on board, but as I stated in the first week this is an exercise on real votes cast, not replies to online or telephone polls. Someone has had to take the time to actually vote not just tell someone what they think they want to hear and then for that pollster to weight it.

There is over 23,000 votes so a large sample size. at present both Conservatives and Labour see a decline against past election results with UKIP making double digit gains where as Lib Dems are seeing huge losses. With the Green Party 25% up on previous elections in real terms up a 1% from 3 to 4.


Below is the last three weeks



17th/19th SEPTEMBER BY ELECTION RESULTS
12TH SEPTEMBER BY ELECTION RESULTS
5TH SEPTEMBER BY ELECTION RESULTS

There were 20 by elections with 23,069 votes cast

Conservatives 7,849 votes 34.02%
Labour 6,149 votes 26.65%
UKIP 4,713 votes 20.43%
Liberal Democrats 2,053 votes 8.9%
Independents 1,192 votes 5.17%
Green Party 977 votes 4.24%
BNP 120 votes 0.52%
NF 16 votes 0.07%

Votes cast when all these by elections were last held.

Conservatives 13,085 votes 37.15%
Labour 9,975 votes 28.32%
Liberal Democrats 4,856 votes 13.79%
UKIP 3,020 votes 8.57%
Independents 2,598 votes 7.37%
Green Party 1,093 3.10%
English Dem 367 votes 1.04%
BBI 182 votes 0.51%
TUSC 41 votes 0.11%

35,217 votes cast in total

Conservative down 3.13%
Labour down 1.67%
UKIP up 12.86%
Liberal Democrats down 4.89%
Independents down 2.2%
Green Party up 1.14%

Change from last weeks

29th August - 12th September 2013
CON -3.2% LAB -3.7% UKIP + 12.7% LD -2% IND -2.9% GREEN  + 1%