What would have last Thursday given us?

National Prediction: CON majority 154

Party	2010 Votes	2010 Seats	Pred Votes	Gains	Losses	Pred Seats
CON	36.97%	307	36.40%	95	0	402
LAB	29.66%	258	19.30%	0	73	185
LIB	23.56%	57	10.70%	0	31	26
UKIP	3.17%	0	22.40%	5	0	5
NAT	2.26%	9	2.26%	3	0	12
MIN	0.89%	19	0.89%	1	0	20
OTH	3.48%	0	8.05%	0	0	0

In yesterdays blog post  REAL VOTES, NOT TELEPHONE POLLS
it showed that there is a big difference at present between the pollsters and actual votes cast.

Now it seems when parties have overcome the hurdle of media hype they then have to contend with FPTP. FPTP v PROPORTIONAL VOTING shows a survey in which the intentions of someones voting changes when they vote in a FPTP election compared to a Proportional election. The major parties lose out by double digit percentages.

So as you can see from the above table, and it is only a calculus guess at best many variables can't be calculated. Conservatives win a large majority and although Labour come third in the share of the vote they are easily second. A party which comes a distant 4th namely the Lib Dems still win more seats than the party which comes 2nd UKIP.

Now this could be showing up the fault of the electoral calculus site. But also I think it shows the fault of the FPTP. Concentrated voting keeps parties in power or at least at the table to feast. Where as having a solid support but spread across the country will not get you into a decision making position.

Will this ultimately disenfranchise the voter? Well considering the vote was down by over a third on Thursday compared with when the by elections were last held. I think the winner is apathy and this allows people to keep power with a under represented proportion of the populations support.

In this formula if less than 50% of the population vote in the next General Election, and Labour or Conservatives win with 30% of the vote then it is conceivable that the country will be run by a party that only 16% of the country actually voted for.

What are your thoughts?