REAL VOTES NOT OPINION POLLS

Opinion polls do have their uses, but you can never actually beat real life votes. Those where, no matter what the weather or inclination of the person. They take time out from their lives to go and cast their vote. It isn't just simply some anonymous telephone record or computer survey.

Now I will start on a three weekly cycle collating the votes from council by elections and then comparing them with when the same election was last held in that ward. Now yes it is not perfect you could end up with more wards held by a particular party being fought over. This is why the comparison will be made with when the last time the election was held.

I think it will give a more honest state of affairs when coming to polling and will see how it compares with the national opinion polls. Obviously unless there is elections in Scotland or Wales there won't be included but then again even the largest pollster has been making assumptions on an areas voting pattern on only double digit samples. This should regularly have a sample of between 10 to 20 thousands dependent on by elections in a three week cycle.

Below is the last three weeks

12TH SEPTEMBER BY ELECTION RESULTS
5TH SEPTEMBER BY ELECTION RESULTS
29TH AUGUST BY ELECTION RESULT

It consisted of 16 by elections. and has a sample of 15,548 votes

The votes cast from all the previous by elections were as follows.

Conservatives 9,403 - 38.46%
Labour 6,413 - 26.23%
Lib Dems 3,248 - 13.29%
Independents 2,596 - 10.62%
UKIP 1,602 - 6.55%
Green Party 637 - 2.61%
English Democrats 367 - 1.50%
BBI 182 - 0.74%

TOTAL 24,448 votes

Total votes from the 16 by elections.

Conservatives 5,479 - 35.24%
Labour 3,499 - 22.50%
UKIP 2,988 - 19.21%
Lib Dems 1,755 - 11.28%
Independents 1,192 - 7.67%
Green Party 555 - 3.57%

TOTAL 15,548 votes

Difference between when the elections were last fought and this past three weeks.

Conservatives - 3.22%
Labour - 3.73%
UKIP + 12.66%
Lib Dems - 2.01%
Independents - 2.95%
Green Party + 0.96%
Eng Dem & BBI - 2.24%