REAL VOTES NOT OPINION POLLS 12/9 - 26/9

This is the third time I have collated this information and so far it seems that the facts which seem to be coming out of the exercise. Is that actual votes cast are down dramatically nearly a third less people bother to vote and explains the high percentage of don't knows and won't votes in opinion polls.

UKIP is showing a big increase in vote share. Now some of this is down to simply having candidates in places they didn't before but doesn't that in itself show the growth of the party and its support.

Then you have the demise of the Independent and smaller parties from 8.9% down to 3.5% only the Green Party have bucked this trend, yet they have only just done this.

If anyone has the information it would be interesting to see how New Labour performed before 1997 and the other Labour victories. It seems that they have held their vote share with a slight decline but not gaining the Tory vote. This vote is going to UKIP. Will be interesting to see into the future when I have collated more of these results.

12th September 2013  5 by elections
17th / 19th September 2013  5 by elections
26th September 2013  10 by elections

Over the past three weeks there has been 20 by elections held with 24,306 votes cast this is down from 35,834 votes cast when the last by elections were held.

Votes in this 3 week period.

Conservatives 7,667 votes 31.5%
Labour 7,503 votes 30.9%
UKIP 5,270 votes 21.7%
Liberal Democrats 2,194 votes 9%
Green Party 839 votes 3.5%
Independents 547 votes 2.3%
Others 286 votes 1.2%

The votes when the by elections were last held

Conservatives 13,031 votes 36.4%
Labout 11,476 votes 32%
Liberal Democrats 4,108 votes 11.5%
UKIP 2,892 votes 8.1%
Independents 2,193 votes 6.1%
Green Party 1,125 votes 3.1%
Others 1,009 votes 2.8%

Change in % terms between the two elections

CON -4.9% LAB -1.1% UKIP + 13.6% LD -2.5% IND -3.8% GREEN + 0.4% OTHERS -1.6%

5th September - 19th September 2013
CON -3.1% LAB -1.7% UKIP + 12.9% LD -4.9% IND -2.2 GREEN + 1.1%