According to the polls
For every 1,000 voters who voted for them in #GE2010 how many have they retained?
#LABOUR 731
#CONSERVATIVES 712
#LIBDEMS 304
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) February 9, 2014
So with Libdem voter retention from the General Election of 2010 being so low just how many seats will the LibDems have after the 2015 General Election?
Your thoughts are welcome.Absolute Certainties (22)
Eastleigh
Cheltenham
Brecon and Radnorshire
Carshalton and Wallington
Kingston
Southport
Thornbury and Yate
Colchester
Hazel Grove
Lewes
Twickenham
Bristol West
Leeds North West
Ceredigion
NE Fife
Yeovil
North Norfolk
Westmoreland
Bath
Hallam
Ross Skye Lochaber
Orkney and Shetland
Likely Holds (9)
Cheadle
Eastbourne
Taunton Deane
Torbay
Berwickshire (Scotland)
Portsmouth South
Caithness and Sutherland
Bermondsey
North Cornwall
On the Edge (9)
St Ives
Chippenham
Berwick (NE)
Aberdeenshire West
North Devon
Hornsey and Wood Green
Cambridge
Gordon
Inverness
Likely Losses (8)
St Austell and Newquay
Somerton and Frome
Sutton and Cheam
Edinburgh West
Redcar
Solihull
Wells
Yardley
No Hopers (8)
Mid Dorset
Norwich South
Bradford East
Brent Central
Withington
Burnley
East Dunbarton
Argyll and Bute
Cheltenham as a definite hold makes me laugh. In fact any likely holds is comical. They'll be lucky to keep their deposits across the country.
ReplyDeleteThe Lib Dems will probably do slightly better than most expect. They are very adept at digging-in locally and becoming part of the local political furniture, often earning the right to represent an area in so doing. Such groundwork will do well for them in 2015 regardless of the bleak national picture of the party.
ReplyDeleteOf course, I meant that comment with regard to the seats they currently hold, and more specifically the seats in which they have their most comfortable majorities. Any gains for the LDs are pretty much certainly off the cards.
ReplyDelete