Wednesday, 5 February 2014

How a General Election vote might look today

New totals
% is without Don't Knows & Won't Votes

Labour - 8,668,054 - 33.8%
Conservatives - 8,022,584 - 31.3%
UKIP - 3,362,112 - 13.1%
Liberal Democrats - 1,873,833 - 7.3%
Green Party - 913,644 - 3.6%
Nationalists - 856,555 - 3.3%
Other - 1,930,689 - 7.6%
Total who will vote - 25,627,471
Don't Knows - 3,250,336
Won't Vote - 853,555

See the calculations below

There were 29,691,380 votes cast in the General Election

As follows
Conservatives 10,726,614 - 36.1%
Labour 8,609,527 - 29%
Liberal Democrats 6,836,824 - 23%
UKIP - 919,546 - 3.1%
SNP 491,386 - 1.7%
Green Party 285,616 - 1%
Plaid Cymru 165,194 - 0.6%
Others 1,656,673 - 5.5%

Poll used for the purposes of this exercise
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/wemm6imruq/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-040214.pdf

Conservatives

According to YOUGOV
3% Won't vote = 321,798
10% Don't Know who to vote for = 1,072,661
Which leaves 9,332,155 voters who will vote as follows according to YOUGOV polling

74% Will vote Conservative again = 6,905,794
5% Will now vote Labour = 466,607
1% Will now vote Liberal Democrat = 93,321
19% Will now vote UKIP = 1,773,109
1% Will now vote NAT = 93,321
1% Will now vote Other = 93,321

Labour

According to YOUGOV
3% Won't vote = 258,285
11% Don't Know who to vote for = 947,047
Which leaves 7,404,195 voters who will vote as follows according to YOUGOV polling

87% Will vote Labour again = 6,441,649
5% Will now vote Conservative = 370,209
1% Will now vote Liberal Democrat = 74,041
4% Will now vote UKIP = 296,167
2% Will now vote Green = 148,083
1% Will now vote Other = 74,041

Liberal Democrats

According to YOUGOV
4% Won't vote = 273,472
18% Don't Know who to vote for = 1,230,628
Which leaves 5,332,723 voters who will vote as follows according to YOUGOV polling

32% Will vote Liberal Democrat again = 1,706,471
33% Will now vote Labour = 1,759,798
14% Will now vote Conservative = 746,581
9% Will now vote Green = 479,945
7% Will now vote UKIP = 373,290
2% Will now vote NAT = 106,654
2% Will now vote Other = 106,654

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