Wednesday, 15 October 2014

2015 UK Parliamentary Election Forecast (15th Oct)

This report was generated on 15 October 2014 at 10:34. To read commentary on the election using these forecasts, follow Election4castUK on Twitter. If you would like to give us feedback on this forecast, please email us at


  • And now the party forecast...
    • Conservatives. Holding steady over the past fortnight. Seat loss probable. Majority unlikely. Plurality possible.
    • Labour. Fading. Seat gain almost certain. Majority unlikely. Plurality possible.
    • Liberal Democrats. Holding steady. Seat loss almost certain.
    • SNP. Holding steady. Seat gain almost certain.
    • Plaid Cymru. Holding steady. Seat loss probable.
    • Greens. Holding steady. Seat loss possible.
    • UKIP. Rising. Seat gain almost certain.
Sortable table of predicted vote share for every party in every seat.
Sortable table of predicted probability of victory for every party in every seat.
The following tables focuses on potential seat gains and losses for each of the parties, including only those seats for which the probability of a change of control is estimated at over 10%. If the table is blank, there are currently no such seats.
Conservatives: Gains Losses
Labour: Gains Losses
Liberal Democrats: Gains Losses
SNP: Gains Losses
Plaid Cymru: Gains Losses
Greens: Gains Losses
UKIP: Gains
Party Lo Seats Hi Swing
Conservatives 245 291 337 -15
Labour 249 294 337 36
Liberal Democrats 14 24 36 -33
SNP 10 17 25 11
Plaid Cymru 0 2 4 -1
Greens 0 0 1 -1
UKIP 1 3 6 3
Other 1 1 3 0
Seat-by-seat predictions based on the party predicted to be most likely to win each seat.

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