Thursday, 16 October 2014

2015 UK Parliamentary Election Forecast (16th Oct)


This report was generated on 16 October 2014 at 11:54. To read commentary on the election using these forecasts, follow Election4castUK on Twitter. If you would like to give us feedback on this forecast, please email us at feedback@electionforecast.co.uk


Our current prediction is that there will be no overall majority, but that Labour will be the largest party with 302 seats. However, based on the historical relationships between the sources of information we are using in our forecast and the outcome of UK elections, we know there is substantial uncertainty in our forecast. The sidebar at right includes predictive probabilities of the key outcomes of the election, as well as vote and seat forecasts for each party with 90% uncertainty intervals.
  • And now the party forecast...
    • Conservatives. Fading slightly over the past fortnight. Seat loss very likely. Majority very unlikely. Plurality moderately unlikely.
    • Labour. Fading. Seat gain almost certain. Majority unlikely. Plurality probable.
    • Liberal Democrats. Holding steady. Seat loss almost certain.
    • SNP. Holding steady. Seat gain almost certain.
    • Plaid Cymru. Holding steady. Seat loss probable.
    • Greens. Holding steady. Seat loss probable.
    • UKIP. Rising rapidly. Seat gain almost certain.

Party Lo Seats Hi Swing
Conservatives 234 279 323 -27
Labour 258 302 344 44
Liberal Democrats 14 25 39 -32
SNP 12 20 28 14
Plaid Cymru 0 2 4 -1
Greens 0 0 1 -1
UKIP 1 3 6 3
Other 1 1 2 0

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