Monday, 27 October 2014

Ashcroft National Poll: Con 31%, Lab 31%, UKIP 18%, Lib Dem 7%, Green 5%

Labour and the Conservatives are level in this week’s Ashcroft National Poll, conducted over the past weekend. The Tories are up three points on last week to 31%, with Labour, the Liberal Democrats and UKIP unchanged on 31%, 7% and 18% respectively. After the last week’s surge to 8% and fourth place the Greens are back below the Lib Dems at their longer term average of 5%. The SNP scored 4%.
In other questions David Cameron and George Osborne led Ed Miliband and Ed Balls by 19 points (45% to 26%) on the question of who was most trusted to manage the economy in the best interests of Britain – a margin that is unchanged since I last asked the question in the ANP in June. Swing voters most trusted the Tory team by 31 points (50% to 19%), and UKIP voters by 39 points (56% to 17%). Nearly a quarter of Labour voters trusted Cameron and Osborne more than their own leaders.
This lead on economic management is valuable for the Conservatives but is put into perspective by a separate question on voters’ priorities. “Improving the NHS” topped the list of the most important issues both when respondents were asked to think about Britain as a whole and those affecting themselves and their families. Six in ten named the NHS in their top three issues facing the country, including 55% of men and 65% of women. Only 50% of Conservative voters mentioned the NHS, compared to 63% of swing voters (who say they do not know how they will vote or that they may change their mind before the election).
“Getting the economy growing and creating jobs” has fallen to second place since June, with 54% naming it in their top three issues for the country and 53% for themselves. “Controlling immigration” was in third place with 48% mentioning it in their top three issues for the country (including 82% of UKIP voters). However, only 33% put immigration among the top three issues facing themselves and their family, placing the issue fourth on that score behind “improving schools”, mentioned by 42%.
Despite the latest battles with Brussels only 14% (including only 20% of UKIP voters) named “protecting Britain’s interests in Europe” among the three biggest issues facing the country, and only 11% among those affecting them personally.
These findings sum up the balance the Conservatives will have to achieve over the next 27 weeks. The economy will rightly be a central part of the Tory campaign but it would be a risk to make it the exclusive message if public attention is shifting towards public services.
At the same time, events in Europe will need a strong response from the PM; my research has found that voters like to see him taking a robust stance even if he cannot win every fight. But the Tories must resist the temptation to be distracted by Europe at the expense of things that matter more to most voters.

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