GRAVESHAM VOTE SHARE 2014 (Will this be the next TORY defector seat?)

Who is the next Conservative defector from this list? <<< link to list which has two Tory MPs who have already defected and a list of more who may in the future

  Adam Holloway Conservative MP would he be the next to defect?

European votes share 2014 for Gravesham Borough Council

UKIP 10,806 - 41.5%
Conservatives 6,097 - 23.4%
Labour 5,816 - 22.4%
Greens 1,217 - 4.7%
LibDems 688 - 2.6%
Others 1,394 - 5.4%

Votes cast 26,018

Prediction: CON hold 

MP: Adam Holloway  (CON)
County/Area: (South East)
Electorate: 70,195
Turnout: 67.39%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	22,956	48.53%	41.94%
LAB	13,644	28.84%	35.06%
LIB	6,293	13.30%	2.34%
UKIP	2,265	4.79%	14.70%
OTH	2,145	4.53%	5.96%
CON Majority	9,312	19.69%	Pred Maj 6.88%

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/seatdetails.pl?seat=Gravesham

Implied and predicted ward-by-ward votes for Gravesham

This table shows the (estimated) general election results broken down over each ward in the seat of Gravesham, as well as the predicted election result ward-by-ward.

Gravesham			Est. 2010 General Election Results					Predicted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2010	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	Other Votes	Total Votes	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	Other Votes	Total Votes
Gravesham	Central	4,928	1,500	930	635	257	3,322	1,296	1,187	112	726	3,321
Gravesham	Chalk	1,580	719	160	71	113	1,063	621	215	13	214	1,063
Gravesham	Coldharbour	3,302	828	823	348	226	2,225	716	964	61	484	2,225
Gravesham	Higham	2,848	1,307	355	156	101	1,919	1,129	463	27	299	1,918
Gravesham	Istead Rise	2,563	1,364	206	95	61	1,726	1,179	299	17	231	1,726
Gravesham	Meopham North	3,179	1,525	356	158	103	2,142	1,318	475	28	321	2,142
Gravesham	Meopham South and Vigo	3,082	1,646	245	113	73	2,077	1,422	357	20	278	2,077
Gravesham	Northfleet North	5,167	1,010	1,369	577	526	3,482	873	1,586	102	922	3,483
Gravesham	Northfleet South	5,143	1,082	1,323	558	502	3,465	935	1,538	98	894	3,465
Gravesham	Painters Ash	4,195	1,085	953	527	262	2,827	938	1,159	93	638	2,828
Gravesham	Pelham	5,445	1,265	1,336	565	502	3,668	1,093	1,562	100	914	3,669
Gravesham	Riverside	5,695	1,103	1,614	680	440	3,837	953	1,865	120	899	3,837
Gravesham	Riverview	3,097	1,350	429	187	121	2,087	1,167	548	33	339	2,087
Gravesham	Shorne, Cobham and Luddesdown	3,045	1,638	235	109	70	2,052	1,416	346	19	272	2,053
Gravesham	Singlewell	4,909	1,427	1,106	470	304	3,307	1,233	1,312	83	679	3,307
Gravesham	Westcourt	4,450	1,097	1,063	546	291	2,997	948	1,275	96	678	2,997
Gravesham	Whitehill	3,004	1,173	497	215	139	2,024	1,014	616	38	356	2,024
Gravesham	Woodlands	4,563	1,834	643	280	317	3,074	1,585	813	49	627	3,074
	Total	70,195	22,953	13,643	6,290	4,408	47,302	19,836	16,580	1,109	9,771	47,296

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.