Thursday, 2 October 2014


Party Lo Seats Hi Swing
Conservatives 246 293 344 -13
Labour 250 299 344 41
Liberal Democrats 13 23 37 -34
SNP 5 10 15 4
Plaid Cymru 1 2 3 -1
Greens 0 1 1 0
UKIP 0 3 6 3
Other 1 1 1 0

Our current prediction is that there will be no overall majority, but that Labour will be the largest party with 299 seats. However, based on the historical relationships between the sources of information we are using in our forecast and the outcome of UK elections, we know there is substantial uncertainty in our forecast. The sidebar at right includes predictive probabilities of the key outcomes of the election, as well as vote and seat forecasts for each party with 90% uncertainty intervals.
  • And now the party forecast...
    • Conservatives. Holding steady over the past fortnight. Seat loss probable. Majority unlikely. Plurality possible.
    • Labour. Holding steady. Seat gain almost certain. Majority unlikely. Plurality possible.
    • Liberal Democrats. Holding steady. Seat loss almost certain.
    • SNP. Holding steady. Seat gain very likely.
    • Plaid Cymru. Holding steady. Seat loss almost certain.
    • Greens. Holding steady. Seat loss moderately unlikely.
    • UKIP. Holding steady. Seat gain almost certain.
characteristics. The model uses the Ashcroft constituency polls where available, plus smaller samples of polling data for every constituency, extracted from pooling many national-level polls. However, the model does not know whether your MP is beloved by constituents or embroiled in scandal, nor does it know whether Boris Johnson or Nigel Farage is standing in your constituency, let alone what the implications of that might be. Some of this might be picked up in the polls, but not all of it will be, and we do not have much polling data to go on when it comes to constituencies. In the aggregate, these aspects of constituency-specific competition tend to average out across parties, but they certainly matter in individual constituencies. Think of our seat-level projections as a baseline for what you might expect from past election results, geography and demography, plus a little bit of polling data.
Sortable table of predicted vote share for every party in every seat.
Sortable table of predicted probability of victory for every party in every seat.
The following tables focuses on potential seat gains and losses for each of the parties, including only those seats for which the probability of a change of control is estimated at over 10%. If the table is blank, there are currently no such seats.
Conservatives: Gains Losses
Labour: Gains Losses
Liberal Democrats: Gains Losses
SNP: Gains Losses
Plaid Cymru: Gains Losses
Greens: Gains Losses
UKIP: Gains

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