REAL VOTES NOT OPINION POLLS 10th - 24th OCTOBER 2013

 24 council by elections have been held over the past three Thursdays. What we have seen is that Labour has done very well in their own strongholds. They have made gains but not always with the gaining of voters but more to do with the collapse of Conservative & Liberal Democrat votes. UKIP are finding it harder in the Labour heartlands and even tougher in Scotland but still show the largest percentage growth.

The Liberal Democrats seem to be able to hold onto heartlands but go into non existence mode anywhere else coming last behind British Nationalists.

The SNP may well have lost Dunfermline as a member of the Scottish Parliament but there vote overall has gone up. It just has not increased as much as Labour in these areas. Scotland does seem to becoming a two horse race between Labour and SNP only and will the Labour party have the most to lose at Westminster if Scotland becomes Independent and Labour lose their MPs from this country?

It seems at the moment Labour have grown the vote share but not the actual voters as we see a drop of 15,000 people who have decided to vote across these 24 by elections. The Conservatives see their actual votes plummet but still have enough to hold heartlands and LDs are holding on. It will be interesting to see how UKIP affects the future elections.If the Conservatives manage to blow a hole in UKIP by giving people a substantive vote on Europe which could be believed to happen then this would close the gap very easily with Labour.

10th October 2013  8 by elections
17th October 2013  6 by elections
24th October 2013  10 by elections

63,990 votes cast when these by elections were last held

Labour 21,790 votes 34.1%
Conservatives 15,895 votes 24.8%
Liberal Democrats 8,840 votes 13.8%
SNP votes 4,507 votes 7%
Independents 4,181 votes 6.5%
UKIP 3,341 votes 5.4%
Others 3,355 votes 5.3%
Green Party 1,991 votes 3.1%

48,632 votes have been cast between 10th - 24 October 2013

Labour 18,496 votes 38%
Conservatives 10,747 votes 22.1%
Liberal Democrats 6,073 votes 12.5%
SNP 4,960 votes 10.2%
UKIP 4,786 votes 9.8%
Others 1,902 votes 3.9%
Green Party 996 votes 2.1%
Independents 672 votes 1.4%

CON - 2.7% LAB +3.9% LD - 1.3% SNP +3.2% UKIP +4.4% INDY'S - 5.1% OTH -1.4% GREEN -1%

PREVIOUSLY

Click the link for the information - The percentages underneath is the difference from when the by elections were last held and when they were held on the given dates.

29th August - 12th September 2013
CON -3.2% LAB -3.7% UKIP + 12.7% LD -2% IND -2.9% GREEN  + 1%

5th September - 19th September 2013
CON -3.1% LAB -1.7% UKIP + 12.9% LD -4.9% IND -2.2 GREEN + 1.1%

12th September - 26th September 2013
CON -4.9% LAB -1.1% UKIP + 13.6% LD -2.5% IND -3.8% GREEN + 0.4% OTHERS -1.6%

17th September - 3rd October 2013
CON -5.8% LAB + 0.8% UKIP + 12.3% LD -2.9% IND -3.2% GREEN + 0.7%  OTHERS -1.9%

26th September - 10th October 2013
CON -4.9% LAB +3.5% UKIP 10% LD +0.1% SNP +0.4% IND -6.8% OTH -1.5% GREEN -0.8%

3rd October - 17th October 2013
CON -1.2% LAB +5.3% LD -1.2% UKIP +7.1% SNP +0.4% OTH -0.9% IND -8.5% GREENS -1%