REAL VOTES NOT OPINION POLLS 26/9 - 10/10

In compiling these figures it does seem to be showing a trend which is still different from the Opinion polls. UKIP have got a double digit overall improvement even when fighting elections in harder areas such as Scotland and Labour strongholds. But still much higher than Opinion polls give them.

The Conservatives are still showing a decline but Labours increases is only in areas in which they have a stronghold anyway. Their victory in Scotland which has done the most to boost the figures is not the only area in which they need to gain. When up against the Conservatives they also seem to see a slight decline because people are turning to UKIP rather than to Labour. Could this be the issue for the General Election?

Will Labour have a whelming win in their own strongholds but just miss out in the marginals they need to win as voters don't turn blue to red but blue to purple leaving just enough blue to keep the reds out.

Lib Dems also show they seem to be holding their own. They have to lost out to the BNP & even the Pirate Party in Manchester so may do what they did in Salford and not run at all. But in their own strongholds they seem to keep the vote up at the same levels.

Independents have now been pushed out of the equation it seems with smaller parties under others also seeing a decrease. With the Green Party showing their first decline since starting this correlation of votes.


26th September 2013  10 by elections
3rd October 2013  4 by elections
10th October 2013  8 by elections

31,319 votes have been cast in the 22 by elections

When the By elections were last held they gave us

Labour 13,687 votes 32.1%
Conservatives 12,319 votes 28.9%
Independents 4,521 votes 10.6%
Liberal Democrats 3,672 votes 8.6%
UKIP 2,697 votes 6.3%
Others 2,321 votes 5.4%
SNP 2,240 votes 5.3%
Green Party 1,141 votes 2.8%

Totaling 42,598 votes cast

This time around the resulting votes by party is.

Labour 11,144 votes 35.6%
Conservatives 7,517 votes 24%
UKIP 5,100 votes 16.3%
Liberal Democrats 2,718 votes 8.7%
SNP 1,783 votes 5.7%
Others 1,214 votes 3.9%
Independents 1,196 votes 3.8%
Green Party 647 votes 2%

Totaling 31,319 votes cast

Difference being

CON -4.9% LAB +3.5% UKIP 10% LD +0.1% SNP +0.4% IND -6.8% OTH -1.5% GREEN -0.8%

Compared with previous weeks

29th August - 12th September 2013
CON -3.2% LAB -3.7% UKIP + 12.7% LD -2% IND -2.9% GREEN  + 1%

5th September - 19th September 2013
CON -3.1% LAB -1.7% UKIP + 12.9% LD -4.9% IND -2.2 GREEN + 1.1%

12th September - 26th September 2013
CON -4.9% LAB -1.1% UKIP + 13.6% LD -2.5% IND -3.8% GREEN + 0.4% OTHERS -1.6%

17th September - 3rd October 2013
CON -5.8% LAB + 0.8% UKIP + 12.3% LD -2.9% IND -3.2% GREEN + 0.7%  OTHERS -1.9%