REAL VOTES NOT OPINION POLLS 3/10 - 17/10

The latest collection of data from the past three weeks of by elections shows a increase for the Labour party but the elections held recently have been in Labour strongholds. It seems that Labour are preaching to the converted and getting an increase in the main from their own core support.

UKIP have had a decrease in their surge of vote. When fighting by elections in Conservative areas they had seen double digit increase of vote shares but when they have been fighting by elections in labour/libdem strongholds that increase is halved nearly at 7.1% but the total 11.9% is still higher than what Opinion polls give them credit and with the average with of conservative areas. They would be expected to get a average vote of 18%.

Lib Dems have made a gain and show yet again that they are continuing to do very poorly away from their strongholds but do seem to be hunkering down.

Independents and others have seen a sharp decrease and this has accelerated when more elections are held in Labour & Lib Dem areas. Also the Green Party see their first major decrease losing a third of its previous support.

The Conservatives have actually seen a lower decrease in support compared to fighting the by elections in mainly conservative strongholds.

3rd October 2013  4 by elections
10th October 2013  8 by elections
17th October 2013  6 by elections

When these election were last held the votes were cast as followed

Labour 11,877 votes 30.8%
Conservatives 9,136 votes 23.7%
Liberal Democrats 5,170 votes 13.4%
Independents 4,767 votes 12.4%
SNP 2,240 votes 5.9%
Other 2,193 votes 5.7%
UKIP 1,872 votes 4.8%
Green Party 1,270 votes 3.3%

total of 38,525 votes

How the votes have been cast between 3rd Oct - 17th Oct

Labour 10,143 votes 36.1%
Conservatives 6,340 votes 22.5%
Liberal Democrats 3,417 votes 12.2%
UKIP 3,346 votes 11.9%
SNP 1,782 votes 6.3%
Other 1,358 votes 4.8%
Independents 1,038 votes 3.9%
Green Party 652 votes 2.3%

CON -1.2% LAB +5.3% LD -1.2% UKIP +7.1% SNP +0.4% OTH -0.9% IND -8.5% GREENS -1%

Previous figures

29th August - 12th September 2013
CON -3.2% LAB -3.7% UKIP + 12.7% LD -2% IND -2.9% GREEN  + 1%

5th September - 19th September 2013
CON -3.1% LAB -1.7% UKIP + 12.9% LD -4.9% IND -2.2 GREEN + 1.1%

12th September - 26th September 2013
CON -4.9% LAB -1.1% UKIP + 13.6% LD -2.5% IND -3.8% GREEN + 0.4% OTHERS -1.6%

17th September - 3rd October 2013
CON -5.8% LAB + 0.8% UKIP + 12.3% LD -2.9% IND -3.2% GREEN + 0.7%  OTHERS -1.9%

26th September - 10th October 2013
CON -4.9% LAB +3.5% UKIP 10% LD +0.1% SNP +0.4% IND -6.8% OTH -1.5% GREEN -0.8%