REAL VOTES NOT OPINION POLLS 17/9 - 3/10

For the first time since doing this we have a positive figure for the Labour party and OK I might be jumping to conclusions but I do feel this does show a few things which Opinion polls miss or have weighted out of them.

Like this week the Lib Dems actually held their own in the council by elections and did not drop thru the floor as Opinion polls suggest and even over a three week period their decline is only slight.

The Conservatives see their biggest drop compared to when they last fought the elections. Now in part this could be down to the big drop in turn out it is also showing the double digit rise of UKIP which is still not fully displayed in opinion polls.

We also seem to be witnessing the end of the Independent and the smaller party yet again Indy's and Others see their numbers more than halve.

As for Labour, Should they be worried by UKIP? Well wouldn't they have had the UKIP vote? Is this a fore bearer for the General Election in seats where people should be turning blue to red, will they turn purple instead? Will the Lib Dems hold onto more MPs than first forecast as they do seem to hold onto their own council by election voters.

This is becoming more interesting, your views are more than welcome.

17th / 19th September 2013  5 by elections
26th September 2013  10 by elections
3rd October 2013  4 by elections

When these council by elections were last held the votes were as follows.

Conservatives 11,458 votes 35.2%
Labour 9,113 votes 28%
Liberal Democrats 4,724 votes 14.5%
UKIP 3,392 votes 10.4%
Independents 1,939 votes 5.9%
Other 1,009 votes 3.1%
Green Party 942 votes 2.9%

a total of 32,577 votes cast

Over this last 3 week period the total votes cast were 22,947 and were as follows

Conservatives 6,738 votes 29.4%
Labour 6,612 votes 28.8%
UKIP 5,220 votes 22.7%
Liberal Democrats 2,653 votes 11.6%
Green Party 826 votes 3.6%
Independents 612 votes 2.7%
Others 286 votes  1.2%

CON -5.8% LAB + 0.8% UKIP + 12.3% LD -2.9% IND -3.2% GREEN + 0.7%  OTHERS -1.9%

Compared with the last three collation of election results

29th August - 12th September 2013
CON -3.2% LAB -3.7% UKIP + 12.7% LD -2% IND -2.9% GREEN  + 1%

5th September - 19th September 2013
CON -3.1% LAB -1.7% UKIP + 12.9% LD -4.9% IND -2.2 GREEN + 1.1%

12th September - 26th September 2013
CON -4.9% LAB -1.1% UKIP + 13.6% LD -2.5% IND -3.8% GREEN + 0.4% OTHERS -1.6%