Thursday, 1 January 2015

Current Electoral Calculus Prediction: Labour short 5 of majority


Party2010 Votes2010 SeatsPred VotesPred Seats
CON36.97%30730.85%242
LAB29.66%25834.03%321
LIB23.56%57 8.52%19
UKIP 3.17%015.55%0
NAT 2.26%9 4.39%49
MIN 4.37%19 6.65%19
Prediction based on opinion polls from 12 Dec 14 to 22 Dec 14, sampling 10,324 people. 


There has been an update to Electoral Calculus published on 31 December 2014 at

Labour again strengthened slightly in December, increasing their lead over the
Conservatives by about one per cent to 3%. The spread of pollster opinion is
still quite wide, ranging from Ipsos-MORI which had a Conservative lead of 3%
to Opinium and TNS-BMRB which had a Labour lead of 7%.

In Scotland, the SNP continued to have strong support and increased their
support to 45%, and are now predicted to win 47 out of the 59 Scottish seats.

The most recent polls from the eight pollsters who published polls in December
are:

ComRes (Independent) has Con 29, Lab 32, Lib 12, UKIP 16
TNS BMRB has Con 28, Lab 35, Lib 5, UKIP 19
Ipsos-MORI (Evening Standard) has Con 32, Lab 29, Lib 9, UKIP 13
ICM (Guardian) has Con 28, Lab 33, Lib 14, UKIP 14
Opinium (Observer) has Con 29, Lab 36, Lib 6, UKIP 16
Survation (Daily Mirror) has Con 30, Lab 33, Lib 10, UKIP 21
Populus has Con 35, Lab 35, Lib 9, UKIP 12
YouGov (Sun) has Con 32, Lab 36, Lib 6, UKIP 16

Overall the average is Con 31 (unch), Lab 34 (+1), Lib 9 (+1), UKIP 16 (-1).

The new national prediction is that Labour will be 5 seats short of a majority,
winning 321 seats (+5 seats since 29 November).

Electoral Calculus

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