This tab provides our estimates of what constituency polls conducted today in every constituency would find. This is not exactly an estimate of what would happen in an election today, and it may not exactly match the current national polls. Since Lord Ashcroft Polls is currently publishing the vast majority of constituency polls, these Nowcasts specifically aim to predict where those polls would find each constituency in the question “Thinking specifically about your own Parliamentary constituency at the next General Election and the candidates who are likely to stand for election to Westminster there, which party's candidate do you think you will vote for in your own constituency?”
This Nowcast allows us to evaluate the performance of our model at interpolating the likely situation in unpolled constituencies every time Lord Ashcroft releases polls of previously unpolled constituencies. While there are many other aspects of our forecasting model, one important component is to correctly determine what is likely to be happening right now in unpolled constituencies, or in constuencies that have not been polled in many months, and so the degree to which we are successful at that is important. Every time there are new constituency polls released, we will write a blog post evaluating how well our Nowcasts predicted those constituency polls at the LSE General Election blog.
Here are our estimates of what these hypothetical constituency polls would look like in every GB seat:
|Sortable table of current vote share for every party in every seat.|
|Sortable table of current probability of victory for every party in every seat.|
|East of England||37||22||11||0||0||8||22||1|
|Yorkshire and The Humber||23||41||8||0||0||6||20||1|