Friday, 16 January 2015

#GE2015 Forecast by ELECTIONS ETC (CON short by 40)

Inputted current average poll shares
Con: 32%
Lab: 33%
LD: 9%
UKIP: 14%
Others: 12%
Forecast GB Vote Shares (with 95% Prediction Intervals)
Con: 34.0% (±5, i.e. 29% – 39%)
Lab: 31.2% (±5, i.e. 26% – 36%)
LD: 11.3% (±5, i.e. 6% – 16%)
UKIP: 12.7% (±5, i.e. 8% – 18%)
Others: 10.8% (±2, i.e. 9% – 13%)
Forecast Scotland Vote Shares (with 95% Prediction Intervals)
SNP: 40% (±5, i.e. 35% – 45%)
Labour: 29% (±5, i.e. 24% – 34%)
Forecast GB Seats (with 95% Prediction Intervals)
Con: 283 (230 – 342)
Lab: 281 (225 – 331)
LD: 26 (14 – 41)
SNP: 36 (21 – 48)
PC: 3
UKIP: 3
Grn: 1
(May not sum to 632 due to rounding of sums of probabilities. Prediction intervals not yet available for UKIP, PC and Grn.)
Central forecast: Con largest party, but short of a majority by 40
(Criterion for majority now changed to 323 not 326, assuming Sinn Fein win 5 seats and do not take them.)
Probabilities of key outcomes
Con largest: 51%
Lab largest: 49%
Hung Parliament: 79%
… with Con largest: 39%
… with Lab largest: 40%
Probabilities of predicted government outcomes:
(See here for explanations and assumptions)
Con majority: 12%
Con+NDown: 1%
Con+ND+DUP: 6%
Con+ND+LD: 9%
… with Con+ND+DUP also possible: 6%
… without Con+ND+DUP also possible: 3%
Con+ND+DUP+UKIP: 0%
Lab majority: 9%
Left (Lab+SDLP+PC+Grn): 4%
Left+LD: 26%
… with LD as kingmakers: 2%
… without LD as kingmakers: 25%
Left+SNP: 36%
… with Left+LD also possible: 24%
… without Left+LD possible: 12%
Left+SNP+LD: 26%
… with LD as kingmakers: 25%
… without LD as kingmakers: 1%
LD kingmakers: 27%
With a choice between Con+ND+DUP(+UKIP)+LD or
…Lab+SDLP+PC+Grn+LD: 2%
…Lab+SDLP+PC+Grn+SNP+LD: 25%
(Probabilities may not sum due to rounding)
Forecast Main 150116

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