Monday, 12 January 2015

Latest #GE2015 Forecast

most recently on 12 January 2015 at 17:46. To read commentary on the election using these forecasts, follow Election4castUK on Twitter. If you would like to give us feedback on this forecast, please email us at
 
 Our current prediction is that there will be no overall majority, but that the Conservatives will be the largest party with 284 seats. However, based on the historical relationships between the sources of information we are using in our forecast and the outcome of UK elections, we know there is substantial uncertainty in our forecast. The sidebar at right includes predictive probabilities of the key outcomes of the election, as well as vote and seat forecasts for each party with 90% uncertainty intervals.
  • And now the party forecast...
    • Conservatives. Holding steady over the past fortnight. Seat loss very likely. Majority very unlikely. Plurality possible.
    • Labour. Fading slightly. Seat gain very likely. Majority very unlikely. Plurality possible.
    • Liberal Democrats. Holding steady. Seat loss almost certain.
    • SNP. Holding steady. Seat gain almost certain.
    • Plaid Cymru. Holding steady. Seat loss probable.
    • Greens. Holding steady. Seat gain moderately unlikely.
    • UKIP. Holding steady. Seat gain almost certain.
 
Party Lo Seats Hi Swing
Conservatives 238 284 322 -22
Labour 240 280 326 22
SNP 22 33 45 27
Liberal Democrats 19 28 39 -29
DUP 6 8 10 0
UKIP 1 3 7 3
SDLP 1 3 3 -1
Plaid Cymru 1 2 4 -1
Greens 1 1 2 0
Other 7 8 10 1
Seat-by-seat predictions based on the party predicted to be most likely to win each seat.

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