The
European election creeps closer and the smart money has switched from Labour to
UKIP topping the poll. A Labour win would be spectacular in its own right
as it would probably require a doubling of their 2009 vote share. I confess
there was an intake of breath in the ComRes office when our ITV News poll
results were in showing an 11-point UKIP lead over Labour. But the naysayers
were confounded by a second poll released on the same day showing a nine-point
UKIP lead.
The
ramifications of a party with no Westminster MPs topping a popular ballot
within a year of a General Election puts us into new territory. What everyone,
including UKIP themselves, are trying to assess is how that support will
translate into an election where voters are being asked to send an MP to
Westminster and a Prime Minister into Downing Street.
If
2009 teaches us anything, it shows that European elections give little
indication of what might happen a year on. In 2009 UKIP came second with
16.6% of the vote and managed just over 3% in 2010. Much has changed since of
course but the lesson is clear – UKIP should not rely on this spike in support.
Indeed, a quarter of UKIP European poll supporters say they are ‘unlikely’ to
stick with the party through to next year, making them less committed than
supporters of either Labour or the Conservatives (only 5% of whom say they are
unlikely to vote the same way at the General Election).
This
illustrates the mountain Mr Farage and his Party face in the coming year. He is
clearly succeeding in harnessing frustration and distrust among the British
public: ask pretty much any question of the general public in a poll and UKIP
supporters will be more negative than anyone else. But that is not enough, nor
is being too narrowly associated with a particular issue. UKIP do well at
European elections because people know that is what UKIP is about. At a General
Election the question of Britain’s relationship with Europe inevitably is less
of an issue, so will UKIP have a broad enough message to appeal beyond their
current support?
Of
course, UKIP’s European poll-topping is in a low-turnout election. The 38%
ComRes recorded for UKIP this week is based on a turnout of 39%. However,
UKIP’s share of the vote – and lead - are lower when those who are likely
to vote are also taken into consideration as well as just those certain to
vote. This could be a problem for UKIP later this month: higher turnout hurts
their vote share. So the fact that a quarter of that 38%, on turnout of 39%,
are ‘unlikely’ to vote for UKIP next year is potentially a significant problem
for them.
Playing
to their advantage is that UKIP supporters tend to be old. Old people
vote. The Liberal Democrats have historically suffered, notably in 2010, by
having young supporters who fail to turn up on Election Day. Building a base of
older voters is a sensible (if until now probably unplanned) electoral tactic
but for 2015 it would be no surprise to see UKIP with policies designed to
appeal to the “grey” vote. With the Conservatives in Westminster voting
intention polls losing around 17% of their 2010 vote to UKIP they will be
fighting to drag them back aboard the good ship Conservative having enjoyed
their Saga holiday on UKIP Island, while Nigel Farage’s team need to produce a
brochure strong enough to secure a repeat visit.
What
seems to surprise many is that despite a significant amount of mud being thrown
at UKIP and Mr Farage, little seems to stick. If anything, it appears to fuel
further support. Media stories about Mr Farage’s expenses and eccentric
local election candidates came and went with seemingly little electoral damage
done: although a third believe UKIP to be a racist party, just as many think
they have sensible policies and are more honest than the other parties. Instead
of harming UKIP’s fortunes, efforts to smear the Party seem to be proving
counter-productive, reinforcing the Party as outside the Establishment and
being bullied for it. Cutting UKIP off at the knees requires a cleverer
approach than calling them names.
UKIP
have a lot of work to do if they want to be fit to fight a General Election,
but the balancing act for them is how to get taken seriously as a mainstream
political party without being seen as, well, a mainstream political party.
Insurgency is always easier, and more fun, than behaving like a party with
serious political ambitions. Mr Farage’s decision not to stand in the Newark
by-election and therefore eschewing the best chance he has of his Party winning
a seat in Westminster will perpetuate the party’s challenger status.
Either
way, UKIP are surely doing better than any of even the most optimistic Party
members and strategists could have hoped for. So far, this has all just been
the preparation, May 22nd will be the dress rehearsal, the real
thing begins straight after the election as all attention turns to 2015.
Keeping hold of their supporters, and broadening their appeal through to a
General Election will be their toughest task yet.
*A version of this article was first posted on the Spectator’s
Coffee House blog.
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