Monday 21 July 2014

Latest forecast for UK GENERAL ELECTION 2015

stephen.fisher@

I am an Associate Professor in Political Sociology and the Fellow and Tutor in Politics at Trinity College.

Date of forecast: 18 July 2014
Days till the election: 293
Inputted current average poll shares (from UK Polling Report)
Con: 33%
Lab: 36%
LD: 9%
Others (inc. UKIP): 22%
– UKIP: 12%
Forecast Election Day Shares (with 95% Prediction Intervals)
Con: 36.2% (±7.6, i.e. 29% – 44%)
Lab: 32.0% (±5.7, i.e. 26% – 38%)
LD: 12.8% (±8.5, i.e. 4% – 21%)
Implied point estimate shares for:
– Others (inc. UKIP): 19.1%
– UKIP: 10.4%
Forecast Election Day Seats (with approximate 95% Prediction Intervals)
Con: 304 (222 – 398)
Lab: 290 (201 – 366)
LD: 29 (23 – 36)
(Prediction intervals assume LD & others shares at central forecast, Con & Lab shares vary as per prediction intervals)
Central forecast: Con largest party, but short of a majority by 22
Approximate probabilities of key outcomes
Con largest: 56%
… with a majority: 30%
Lab largest: 44%
… with a majority: 20%
Hung Parliament: 49%
… with Con largest: 26%
… with Lab largest: 23%
(probabilities may not sum due to rounding)
Shares trend 140711
Probabilities trend 140711
Probabilities trend b 140711
Seats trend 140711

Saturday 19 July 2014

Survation' New Poll of Minimum Wage Earners

Survation and Unite release the results of a groundbreaking new poll on the experiences of people earning the minimum wage. Survation polled 2023 people earning £6.50 or less about pay and working conditions. Fieldwork was carried out from 24th June to 2nd July.  
We found that:
  • One in five young (aged 18-34) minimum wage earners have had someone in their household use a food bank in the last year.
  • Over half (54%) of those with credit cards and loans will not be able to make repayments if interest rates rise later in the year
  • Almost 4 in 5 minimum wage earners want a statutory living wage rather than more benefits
  • Only 1 in 4 believe their employer currently can't afford to pay a them a higher wage
  • A majority (58%) of minimum wage earners do not feel there is better paid work available to them
  • One in three minimum wage earners feel they have the skills and experience for a better paid job, but there are none available
  • Half of minimum wage earners say the amount they earn varies week by week.
  • Over a third (37%) want to work more hours
  • Most minimum wage earners (54%) think it is the government's responsibility to ensure fair levels of pay rather than employers, unions, campaign groups or the workers themselves.

Full data tables are available here.

Tuesday 15 July 2014

Long-range forecast for a 2015 British General Election based on current polls and historical polls and votes



Stephen Fisher, University of Oxford

This page gives details of the current forecast from a new polls-based method for forecasting a general election on 7th May 2015. The method was revised in February 2014 and is described in a working paper. The original October 2013 working paper is here. There is also occasional commentary at my Elections etc. blog. To receive Tweets with updates of both the forecast and commentary, follow me @StephenDFisher. 

The approach is broadly to predict the next election based on current opinion polls and the track record of polls in previous electoral cycles, allowing for change in opinion in the run up to the election. The method allows for three main historical tendencies: governments being more likely to recover and oppositions fall back; parties moving back towards their long-run average level of support and/or the level of support at the previous election; and lastly and by far the least important tendency is for the Conservatives to over perform and Labour to under perform their vote intention figures in the polls when it comes to election day. All three suggest a Conservative recovery and a Labour set back from autumn 2013. The statistical regression methodology generates estimates of uncertainty and so prediction intervals (range of likely outcomes) and probabilities for key events are also provided below. The forecast represents a way to think about the implications of current opinion polls for the outcome of the next general election in light of the historical relationship between polls and election results. It is the product of a statistical analysis of the data and not my personal opinion about what will happen.

Date of forecast: 11.07.2014
Days till the election: 300

Inputted current average poll shares
Con : 31
Lab : 36
LD  : 9
Oth : 24
UKIP: 14 so UKIP share of combined Others vote is 58%

Forecast Election Day Shares with 95% Prediction Intervals
Con : 34.9 plus or minus 7.7 i.e. between 27 and 43
Lab : 31.9 plus or minus 5.7 i.e. between 26 and 38
LD  : 12.8 plus or minus 8.6 i.e. between 4 and 21
Implied point estimate shares for:
   Others combined: 20.4
   UKIP           : 11.9 (based on share of combined Others vote.)

Forecast Election Day Seats
Con : 295
Lab : 296
LD  : 31
Lab largest party, but short of a majority by 31

Forecast Election Day Seats with approximate 95% Prediction Intervals
Assuming LD share at 12.8 and Other share at 20.4 and allowing Con and Lab to vary as per intervals above.
Con between 213 and 389
Lab between 207 and 372
LD between 25 and 38

Approximate probabilities of key outcomes
Pr(Con largest party) = 49%
Pr(Lab largest party) = 51%
Pr(Con majority) = 23%
Pr(Lab majority) = 25%
Pr(Hung parliament) = 52%
Pr(Hung parliament with Con largest party) = 26%
Pr(Hung parliament with Lab largest party) = 26%



The inputted current polling average is that from UK Polling Report, chosen because it is sensible, convenient and frequently updated. But this is not a claim that this is necessarily the best estimate of current opinion and it would be reasonable to use other methods of averaging recent polls. On occasion I will adjust the polling average to make it more up to date.

I try to update the forecast every week, and mostly on Fridays.

Sunday 13 July 2014

Survation New Scottish Independence Polling Results

In conjunction with Daily Record, Dundee University and Better Nation we have new Scottish Independence Referendum polling out today.

Full tables for the questions released today can be found here:

Here's a summary of the results compared to our June omnibus in (brackets) and one of the supplementary questions.
 
Independence Referendum
(Unrounded)
Yes - 40.9% (38.8%)
No - 46.0% (44.4%)
Undecided - 13.2% (16.7%)
 
Rounded:
Yes - 41%
No - 46%
Undecided - 13%
 
Excluding undecided (unrounded):
Yes - 47.1% (46.6%)
No - 52.9% (53.4%)
 
Excluding undecided (rounded)
Yes - 47%
No - 53%
 
Scottish Parliament constituency vote (ex DK/Ref)
LAB: 31%
CON: 13%
SNP: 44%
LD: 5%
AP (net): 7%

Scottish Parliament list vote (ex DK/Ref)
LAB: 26%
CON: 13%
SNP: 37%
LD: 7%
GRN: 8%
UKIP:  8%
AP (net): 1%
 
Westminster vote (ex DK/Ref)
LAB: 27%
CON: 14%
SNP: 31%
LD: 4%
AP (net): 6%

Which of the following best reflects your experience during the campaign so far?*

I have had a disagreement or fallen out with a family member, friend or work colleague over the referendum debate – 21%

I have not had a disagreement or fallen out with a family member, friend or work colleague over the referendum debate – 79%
 

Referendum
%
Change  June to July
Yes
41
+2
No
46
+2
Undecided
13
-4
Lead
5
-1
     
Yes (excl. DK)
47
+1
No (excl. DK)
53
-1
Lead
6
no change
 

Scottish parliamentary elections – constituency vote (excl. DK/Refused/Undecided)
%
Change
CON
13.3
NC
LAB
30.6
+2
LD
5.1
-1
SNP
44.1
-2
Another party (net)
6.9
+1

Scottish parliamentary elections – constituency vote
 
Change
CON
10.8
NC
LAB
24.9
+2
LD
4.1
-1
SNP
35.9
-1
Another party (net)
5.6
+1
Undecided
18.0
-1
Refused
0.6
NC


Scottish parliament – regional list vote (excl. DK/Refused/Undecided)
%
Change
CON
12.9
+3
LAB
25.7
-1
LD
7.3
+1
SNP
36.9
-2
UKIP
8.1
-1
Scottish Green Party
8.1
-2
Another party (Net)
0.9
NC


Scottish parliament – regional list vote
%
Change
CON
10.5
+2
LAB
20.9
NC
LD
5.9
+1
SNP
30.0
-1
UKIP
6.6
-1
Scottish Green Party
6.6
-1
Another party (Net)
0.7
NC
Undecided
17.9
-3
Refused
0.9
NC

Westminster vote (excl. DK/Refused/Undecided)
%
Change
CON
17.1
+2
LAB
33.1
+1
LD
4.7
NC
SNP
37.8
-2
Another party (net)
7.3
-1

Westminster vote
%
Change
CON
14.1
+2
LAB
27.3
+1
LD
3.9
NC
SNP
31.2
-2
Another party (net)
6.0
-1
Undecided
17.1
NC
Refused
0.5
NC