POPULUS
PUBLIC SECTOR VOTER
LAB 48%
CON CON 27%
LD 8%
UKIP 8%
PRIVATE SECTOR VOTER
CON 40%
LAB 34%
LD 13%
UKIP 6%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) November 29, 2013
http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/Online_VI_29-11-2013_BPC.pdfPages
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Friday, 29 November 2013
POPULUS POLLING 27th - 28th NOVEMBER
Lab 38 (-1); Cons 35 (+1); LD 12 (=); UKIP 7 (=); Oth 8 (=)
NOVEMBERS VOTE YOUR GOAT SURVEY
http://www.voteyourgoat.com/election/results/1/2013/11
Geographic Breakdown
Overall
Conservative | 27.03% | |
Labour | 21.62% | |
UK Independence Party | 18.92% | |
Liberal Democrat | 13.51% | |
Undecided | 8.11% | |
Green | 5.41% | |
National Health Action Party | 5.41% |
England
Conservative | 30.00% | |
Labour | 23.33% | |
UK Independence Party | 23.33% | |
Liberal Democrat | 6.67% | |
Undecided | 6.67% | |
National Health Action Party | 6.67% | |
Green | 3.33% |
Scotland
Labour | 33.33% | |
Green | 33.33% | |
Undecided | 33.33% |
Wales
Liberal Democrat | 75.00% | |
Conservative | 25.00% |
YOUGOV POLLING 27th - 28th NOVEMBER
Con 33%, Lab 39%, LD 8%, UKIP 14%; APP -27
Which party is led by people of real ability?
For those who answered NONE of them
#LibDem voters 41%
#Labour 40%
#Conservative 21%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) November 29, 2013
Which party leader is prepared to take tough decisions?
Those who answered NONE of them.
#Labour voters 29%
#LibDem 18%
#Conservative 10%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) November 29, 2013
#GE2010 Voters who don't know or won't vote next time around.
#LibDems 29%
#Conservatives 17%
#Labour 14%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) November 29, 2013
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/oo5zws8gqx/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-281113.pdf
Thursday, 28 November 2013
YOUGOV POLLING 26th-27th NOVEMBER
Con 32%, Lab 39%, LD 10%, UKIP 13%; APP -27
YOUGOV
Polling by social grade
ABC1
CON 36%
LAB 35%
LD 12%
UKIP 11%
NAT 4%
GREEN 2%
C2DE
LAB 44%
CON 27%
UKIP 16%
LD 8%
GREEN 3%
NAT 2%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) November 28, 2013
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/0zlq3m5kgt/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-271113.pdf
Wednesday, 27 November 2013
SOUTH THANET SURVATION POLLING
Reasons for voting #UKIP
I like their policies (62%)
As a general protest (18%)
I like their party leader (5%)
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) November 27, 2013
Reasons for voting #Labour
Always voted for them 42%
I like their policies 33%
I dislike another party and want to stop them winning 7%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) November 27, 2013
reasons for voteing #Conservative
Always voted for them 37%
I like their policies 37%
I dislike another party want to stop them winning 12%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) November 27, 2013
http://survation.com/2013/11/new-constituency-polling-in-south-thanet/
Tuesday, 26 November 2013
UK General Election 2015 Probability of each outcome:
UK General Election 2015
Probability of each outcome:
1 day | 7 day | ||
---|---|---|---|
Hung Parliament | 39.25% | ||
Labour Majority | 36.89% | ||
Conservative Majority | 23.36% | ||
Other Party Majority | 0.49% | ||
Updates every hour. Last Updated: 22:00:26, Tue 26 November 2013 |
Percentage outcome based on the Betfair back price for each selection, compensating for the overround.
Any discrepancy between the total probability and 100% is due to rounding.
YOUGOV POLLING 25th November
Latest YouGov / The Sun results 25th November - Con 32%, Lab 40%, LD 10%, UKIP 12%; APP -28
YOUGOV
#GE2010 VOTERS
32% of #LIBDEMS won't vote/don't know who to vote for.
17% of #CONSERVATIVES are the same
and 13% of #LABOUR
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) November 26, 2013
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/5o04zg8i2m/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-251113.pdf
POPULUS ONLINE POLLING 22nd - 24th November
LAB 39/ CON 34/ LIBDEM 12/ UKIP 7
POPULUS
VOTING BY AGE
18-24
LAB 44%
CON 39%
LD 9%
UKIP 3%
35-44
LAB 53%
CON 24%
LD 14%
UKIP 2%
65+
CON 47%
LAB 26%
UKIP 13%
LD 10%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) November 26, 2013
http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/Online_VI_25-11-2013_BPC.pdf
COM RES POLLING 22nd - 24th November
Con 32(+4) Lab 37(+1) LD 9 (-2) UKIP 11(-1) Other 11(-2)
COMRES
Certain NOT to vote
Age 18-24 = 34%
25-64 = 18%
65+ = 12%
18-24
LAB 50%
CON 22%
LD 12%
UKIP 5%
65+
CON 39%
LAB 26%
UKIP 17%
LD 9%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) November 26, 2013
http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/Independent_Political_Poll_26th_November_2013.pdf
Monday, 25 November 2013
REAL VOTES NOT OPINION POLLS 7th Nov - 21st Nov
Unlike all the major pollsters this review of actual voting shows not such a wild swing to Labour nearly 30,000 votes cast and spread across 19 various wards. It only shows a 3.1% swing to Labour. With the Liberal Democrats actually taking Kirklees (golcar) from Labour and if the candidate in Scarboro hadn't withdrawn these percentages could have been even less fluctuating. Labours upward percentage may have been wiped out with liberal Democrats not losing as much.
UKIP yet again become the biggest gainers with double digit rises. Doing well by coming 2nd to Labour and doing strong again with Conservative wards.
7th November 2013 10 by elections
14th November 2013 4 by elections
21st November 2013 5 by elections
When these by elections were last all held 50,363 votes were cast
Labour 17,053 votes 33.9%
Conservatives 12,626 votes 25.1%
Liberal Democrats 6,903 votes 13.7%
Others 5,263 votes 10.5%
Independents 5,040 votes 10%
Green Party 1,844 votes 3.6%
UKIP 1,634 votes 3.2%
When the same wards held by elections between 7th Nov - 21st November 2013
29,367 votes were cast.
Labour 10,559 votes 35.9%
Conservatives 6,095 votes 20.8%
UKIP 4,098 votes 14%
Liberal Democrats 2,998 votes 10.2%
Others 2,727 votes 9.3%
Independents 2,130 votes 7.2%
Green Party 760 votes 2.6%
DIFFERENCE
LAB +2% CON -4.3% UKIP +10.8% LD -3.5% OTH -1.2% IND -2.8% GREEN -1%
UKIP yet again become the biggest gainers with double digit rises. Doing well by coming 2nd to Labour and doing strong again with Conservative wards.
7th November 2013 10 by elections
14th November 2013 4 by elections
21st November 2013 5 by elections
When these by elections were last all held 50,363 votes were cast
Labour 17,053 votes 33.9%
Conservatives 12,626 votes 25.1%
Liberal Democrats 6,903 votes 13.7%
Others 5,263 votes 10.5%
Independents 5,040 votes 10%
Green Party 1,844 votes 3.6%
UKIP 1,634 votes 3.2%
When the same wards held by elections between 7th Nov - 21st November 2013
29,367 votes were cast.
Labour 10,559 votes 35.9%
Conservatives 6,095 votes 20.8%
UKIP 4,098 votes 14%
Liberal Democrats 2,998 votes 10.2%
Others 2,727 votes 9.3%
Independents 2,130 votes 7.2%
Green Party 760 votes 2.6%
DIFFERENCE
LAB +2% CON -4.3% UKIP +10.8% LD -3.5% OTH -1.2% IND -2.8% GREEN -1%
Sunday, 24 November 2013
YOUGOV POLLING NOV 21st-22nd
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/q0ir85hkfv/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-221113.pdf
yougov
Do you think Ed Miliband is doing well or badly as leader of the #Labour party?
29% of #LABOUR voters say badly
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) November 24, 2013
yougov
Do you think that Nick Clegg is doing well or badly as leader of the #LiberalDemocrats?
28% of #LIBDEM voters say badly
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) November 24, 2013
yougov
Do you think that David Cameron is doing well or badly as Prime Minister?
7% of #TORY voters say badly
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) November 24, 2013
Saturday, 23 November 2013
LATEST UK GENERAL ELECTION BETTING
#UKGeneralElection2015
Total Seats - UKIP Betting Odds
None 4/7
one to five 2/1
Over five 5/1
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) November 23, 2013
#UKGeneralElection2015 Total Seats -
#LiberalDemocrats Betting Odds
0-10 - 14/1
11-20 - 6/1
21-30 - 4/1
31-40 - 11/4
41-50 - 7/2
10/1 bar
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) November 23, 2013
#UKGENERALELECTION2015
Most seats betting
#LABOUR 4/6
#CONSERVATIVES 6/4
#UKIP 100/1
#LIBDEMS 150/1
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) November 23, 2013
COWDENBEATH MSP BY ELECTION DATE SET
The Cowdenbeath MSP by-election will take place on Jan 23.
2012 locals result was
Lab 51.3%
SNP 33.6
Con 7.9
LD 5.2
UKIP 1.7
Others 0.2%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) November 23, 2013
POPULUS POLLING 20-21 NOVEMBER
Populus polling
POPULUS
10/10 CERTAIN TO VOTE
18-24 = 28%
65+ = 72%
65+ VOTING
CON 41%
LAB 25%
UKIP 18%
LD 12%
18-25
LAB 51%
CON 28%
LD 12%
UKIP 4%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) November 23, 2013
http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/Online_VI_22-11-2013_BPC.pdf
Friday, 22 November 2013
UKIPS BEST PROSPECTS FOR 2015 GENERAL ELECTION
Below is the list of odds for where Nigel Farage will be a candidate in the 2015 General Election as with Caroline Lucas of the Green Party it can only be expected that the leader of UKIP will also choose the best bet for UKIP to win a seat.
Back in June I posted these results. Click the link to find more information but it shows where if Mays Council elections had been replicated in a General Election then there would be now 10 UKIP members of Parliament.
http://ukgeneralelection2015.blogspot.co.uk/2013/06/ukips-ten-nominal-mps.html
South Thanet | 11/4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
Boston and Skegness | 9/2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
Folkestone and Hythe | 9/2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
North Thanet | 5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
Eastleigh | 13/2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
North Devon | 8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
East Devon | 12 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
Newton Abbot | 12 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
Louth and Horncastle | 14 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
Spelthorne | 14 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
Gainsborough | 16 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
Christchurch | 18 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
South Holland and The Deepings | 22 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
Buckingham | 33 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
Central Devon | 33 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
New Forest West | 33 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
Forest Of Dean | 40 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
Torbay | 50 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
Maidstone and The Weald | 80 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
Windsor | 100 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
Isle Of Wight | 150 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
Barnsley Central | 250 |
Back in June I posted these results. Click the link to find more information but it shows where if Mays Council elections had been replicated in a General Election then there would be now 10 UKIP members of Parliament.
http://ukgeneralelection2015.blogspot.co.uk/2013/06/ukips-ten-nominal-mps.html
Westminster Constituency | UKIP 'majority' in local election May 2013 | Current MP | Party | Majority | Party holding seat in 2001 | |
South Thanet | 7.46% | Laura Sandys | Con | 7617 | Lab | |
North Thanet | 5.92% | Sir Roger Gale | Con | 13528 | Con | |
Sittingbourne and Sheppey | 5.70% | Gordon Henderson | Con | 12383 | Lab | |
Forest of Dean | 0.90% | Mark Harper | Con | 11064 | Lab | |
Aylesbury | 2.58% | David Lidington | Con | 12618 | Con | |
Great Yarmouth* (over LAB) | 2.25% | Brandon Lewis | Con | 4276 | Lab | |
Boston & Skegness | 11.18% | Mark Simmonds | Con | 12426 | Con | |
East Worthing and Shoreham | 1.72% | Tim Loughton | Con | 11105 | Con | |
Castle Point | 0.32% | Rebecca Harris | Con | 7632 | Con | |
Bognor Regis and Littlehampton | 7.35% | Nick Gibb | Con | 13063 | Con |
YOUGOV POLLING 20TH-21ST NOVEMBER
YOUGOV POLLING
AGE 60+
CON 38%
LAB 29%
UKIP 20%
LDEM 8%
WON'T VOTE / DON'T KNOW
AGE 60+ = 14%
AGE 18-24 = 25%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) November 22, 2013
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/vwzw9r5lpz/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-211113.pdf
Wednesday, 20 November 2013
Tuesday, 19 November 2013
How much a European 2009 vote cost?
LABOUR 93p a vote
PLAID CYMRU 78p a vote
UKIP 67p a vote
CONSERVATIVES 63p a vote
LIB DEMS 57p a vote
SNP 39p a vote
GREENS 30p a vote
HOW MUCH PARTIES SPENT IN 2009 EUROPEAN ELECTIONS
PLAID CYMRU 78p a vote
UKIP 67p a vote
CONSERVATIVES 63p a vote
LIB DEMS 57p a vote
SNP 39p a vote
GREENS 30p a vote
HOW MUCH PARTIES SPENT IN 2009 EUROPEAN ELECTIONS
- Conservative: £2,657,752
- Labour: £2,223,120
- UKIP: £1,687,653
- Lib Dems: £1,188,898
- The Green Party of England and Wales: £387,895
- SNP: £125,957
- Plaid Cymru: £98,968
RESULTS
SEATS: 72
TURNOUT: 15,625,823
ELECTORATE: 45,315,669
Party | Votes | MEPs | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Total | % | Total | +/- | |
Conservative | 4,198,394 | 27.7 (+1.0) |
*26 | +1 |
UK Independence Party | 2,498,226 | 16.5 (+0.3) |
13 | +1 |
Labour | 2,381,760 | 15.7 (-6.9) |
13 | -5 |
Liberal Democrats | 2,080,613 | 13.7 (-1.2) |
11 | +1 |
Green Party | 1,303,745 | 8.6 (+2.4) |
2 | 0 |
British National Party | 943,598 | 6.2 (+1.3) |
2 | +2 |
Scottish National Party | 321,007 | 2.1 (+0.7) |
2 | 0 |
Plaid Cymru | 126,702 | 0.8 (-0.1) |
1 | 0 |
Sunday, 17 November 2013
COST OF ELECTIONS
Election | Conduct of the poll (£) | Postal deliveries (£) | Total (£) |
---|---|---|---|
Source: British Electoral Facts 1832-2012 p. 122 SOURCE
Link for Iain Dales cost of becoming an MP |
|||
1979 |
7,115,539 |
6,668,614 |
13,784,153 |
1983 |
12,139,634 |
11,281,228 |
23,420,862 |
1987 |
14,741,334 |
12,152,497 |
26,893,831 |
1992 |
22,703,801 |
18,011,749 |
40,715,550 |
1997 |
29,764,513 |
23,359,582 |
53,124,095 |
2001 |
36,000,000 |
20,200,000 |
56,200,000 |
2005 |
46,000,000 |
25,000,000 |
71,000,000 |
2010 |
84,600,000 |
28,655,271 |
113,255,271 |
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