Friday, 29 November 2013

POPULUS POLLING 27th - 28th NOVEMBER

Lab 38 (-1); Cons 35 (+1); LD 12 (=); UKIP 7 (=); Oth 8 (=)

http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/Online_VI_29-11-2013_BPC.pdf

NOVEMBERS VOTE YOUR GOAT SURVEY

http://www.voteyourgoat.com/election/results/1/2013/11

Geographic Breakdown

Overall


Conservative27.03%

Labour21.62%

UK Independence Party18.92%

Liberal Democrat13.51%

Undecided8.11%

Green5.41%

National Health Action Party5.41%

England


Conservative30.00%

Labour23.33%

UK Independence Party23.33%

Liberal Democrat6.67%

Undecided6.67%

National Health Action Party6.67%

Green3.33%

Scotland


Labour33.33%

Green33.33%

Undecided33.33%

Wales


Liberal Democrat75.00%

Conservative25.00%

YOUGOV POLLING 27th - 28th NOVEMBER

Con 33%, Lab 39%, LD 8%, UKIP 14%; APP -27

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/oo5zws8gqx/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-281113.pdf

Thursday, 28 November 2013

YOUGOV POLLING 26th-27th NOVEMBER

 Con 32%, Lab 39%, LD 10%, UKIP 13%; APP -27

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/0zlq3m5kgt/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-271113.pdf

Wednesday, 27 November 2013

PMQ'S 27th November

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SOUTH THANET SURVATION POLLING



Picture 64


http://survation.com/2013/11/new-constituency-polling-in-south-thanet/

Tuesday, 26 November 2013

UK General Election 2015 Probability of each outcome:

UK General Election 2015

Probability of each outcome:



1 day7 day
Hung Parliament39.25%
Labour Majority36.89%
Conservative Majority23.36%
Other Party Majority0.49%
Updates every hour. Last Updated: 22:00:26, Tue 26 November 2013

Percentage outcome based on the Betfair back price for each selection, compensating for the overround.
Any discrepancy between the total probability and 100% is due to rounding.

YOUGOV POLLING 25th November

Latest YouGov / The Sun results 25th November - Con 32%, Lab 40%, LD 10%, UKIP 12%; APP -28

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/5o04zg8i2m/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-251113.pdf

POPULUS ONLINE POLLING 22nd - 24th November

LAB 39/  CON 34/ LIBDEM 12/ UKIP 7

http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/Online_VI_25-11-2013_BPC.pdf

COM RES POLLING 22nd - 24th November

 Con 32(+4) Lab 37(+1) LD 9 (-2) UKIP 11(-1) Other 11(-2)

http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/Independent_Political_Poll_26th_November_2013.pdf

Monday, 25 November 2013

REAL VOTES NOT OPINION POLLS 7th Nov - 21st Nov

Unlike all the major pollsters this review of actual voting shows not such a wild swing to Labour nearly 30,000 votes cast and spread across 19 various wards. It only shows a 3.1% swing to Labour. With the Liberal Democrats actually taking Kirklees (golcar) from Labour and if the candidate in Scarboro hadn't withdrawn these percentages could have been even less fluctuating. Labours upward percentage may have been wiped out with liberal Democrats not losing as much.

UKIP yet again become the biggest gainers with double digit rises. Doing well by coming 2nd to Labour and doing strong again with Conservative wards.

7th November 2013  10 by elections
14th November 2013  4 by elections
21st November 2013  5 by elections

When these by elections were last all held 50,363 votes were cast

Labour 17,053 votes 33.9%
Conservatives 12,626 votes 25.1%
Liberal Democrats 6,903 votes 13.7%
Others 5,263 votes 10.5%
Independents 5,040 votes 10%
Green Party 1,844 votes 3.6%
UKIP 1,634 votes 3.2%

When the same wards held by elections between 7th Nov - 21st November 2013
29,367 votes were cast.

Labour 10,559 votes 35.9%
Conservatives 6,095 votes 20.8%
UKIP 4,098 votes 14%
Liberal Democrats 2,998 votes 10.2%
Others 2,727 votes 9.3%
Independents 2,130 votes 7.2%
Green Party 760 votes 2.6%

DIFFERENCE

LAB +2% CON -4.3% UKIP +10.8% LD -3.5% OTH -1.2% IND -2.8% GREEN -1%

Sunday, 24 November 2013

YOUGOV POLLING NOV 21st-22nd

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/q0ir85hkfv/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-221113.pdf

Saturday, 23 November 2013

LATEST UK GENERAL ELECTION BETTING

COWDENBEATH MSP BY ELECTION DATE SET

POPULUS POLLING 20-21 NOVEMBER

Populus polling
http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/Online_VI_22-11-2013_BPC.pdf

Friday, 22 November 2013

UKIPS BEST PROSPECTS FOR 2015 GENERAL ELECTION

Below is the list of odds for where Nigel Farage will be a candidate in the 2015 General Election as with Caroline Lucas of the Green Party it can only be expected that the leader of UKIP will also choose the best bet for UKIP to win a seat.


South Thanet






11/4














Boston and Skegness






9/2














Folkestone and Hythe






9/2














North Thanet






5














Eastleigh






13/2














North Devon






8














East Devon






12














Newton Abbot






12














Louth and Horncastle






14














Spelthorne






14














Gainsborough






16














Christchurch






18














South Holland and The Deepings






22














Buckingham






33














Central Devon






33














New Forest West






33














Forest Of Dean






40














Torbay






50














Maidstone and The Weald






80














Windsor






100














Isle Of Wight






150














Barnsley Central






250

Back in June I posted these results. Click the link to find more information but it shows where if Mays Council elections had been replicated in a General Election then there would be now 10 UKIP members of Parliament.

http://ukgeneralelection2015.blogspot.co.uk/2013/06/ukips-ten-nominal-mps.html

Westminster Constituency UKIP 'majority' in local election May 2013
Current MP Party Majority Party holding seat in 2001
South Thanet 7.46%
Laura Sandys Con 7617 Lab
North Thanet 5.92%
Sir Roger Gale Con 13528 Con
Sittingbourne and Sheppey 5.70%
Gordon Henderson Con 12383 Lab
Forest of Dean 0.90%
Mark Harper Con 11064 Lab
Aylesbury 2.58%
David Lidington Con 12618 Con
Great Yarmouth* (over LAB) 2.25%
Brandon Lewis Con 4276 Lab
Boston & Skegness 11.18%
Mark Simmonds Con 12426 Con
East Worthing and Shoreham 1.72%
Tim Loughton Con 11105 Con
Castle Point 0.32%
Rebecca Harris Con 7632 Con
Bognor Regis and Littlehampton 7.35%
Nick Gibb Con 13063 Con

YOUGOV POLLING 20TH-21ST NOVEMBER

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/vwzw9r5lpz/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-211113.pdf

Tuesday, 19 November 2013

32 LABOUR CO-OPERATIVE MPs

Labour MPs backed by coop.jpg http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2509659/Miliband-held-private-meeting-drug-shame-bank-chairman-Labour-leader-facing-difficult-questions-relationship-Paul-Flowers.html

How much a European 2009 vote cost?

LABOUR 93p a vote
PLAID CYMRU 78p a vote
UKIP 67p a vote
CONSERVATIVES 63p a vote
LIB DEMS 57p a vote
SNP 39p a vote
GREENS 30p a vote

HOW MUCH PARTIES SPENT IN 2009 EUROPEAN ELECTIONS
  • Conservative: £2,657,752
  • Labour: £2,223,120
  • UKIP: £1,687,653
  • Lib Dems: £1,188,898
  • The Green Party of England and Wales: £387,895
  • SNP: £125,957
  • Plaid Cymru: £98,968
Source: Electoral Commission (including all campaigning costs over £1,000)

 

RESULTS

SEATS: 72 TURNOUT: 15,625,823 ELECTORATE: 45,315,669
Party Votes MEPs
Total % Total +/-
Conservative 4,198,394 27.7
(+1.0)
*26 +1
UK Independence Party 2,498,226 16.5
(+0.3)
13 +1
Labour 2,381,760 15.7
(-6.9)
13 -5
Liberal Democrats 2,080,613 13.7
(-1.2)
11 +1
Green Party 1,303,745 8.6
(+2.4)
2 0
British National Party 943,598 6.2
(+1.3)
2 +2
Scottish National Party 321,007 2.1
(+0.7)
2 0
Plaid Cymru 126,702 0.8
(-0.1)
1 0

Sunday, 17 November 2013

COST OF ELECTIONS

Election Conduct of the poll (£) Postal deliveries (£) Total (£)
Source: British Electoral Facts 1832-2012 p. 122

SOURCE


  • The total cost for the winning candidates was £41,550 when lost income was included.  It was significantly less - £27,235 – for losing candidates (partly reflecting the fact that some candidates were unlikely to win their seats and consequently spent and sacrificed less).  Average cost of fighting a seat (with lost income included): £34,392.
  • When considering direct costs only the cost was £22,020 for winning candidates and £16,070 for losing candidates.  Average costs (only including fees, housing, travel and other direct costs): £19,045.

Link for Iain Dales cost of becoming an MP
1979
7,115,539
6,668,614
13,784,153
1983
12,139,634
11,281,228
23,420,862
1987
14,741,334
12,152,497
26,893,831
1992
22,703,801
18,011,749
40,715,550
1997
29,764,513
23,359,582
53,124,095
2001
36,000,000
20,200,000
56,200,000
2005
46,000,000
25,000,000
71,000,000
2010
84,600,000
28,655,271
113,255,271