Tuesday 31 March 2015

COMRES / ITV News – Scottish Labour Seats Poll


List of 133 TUSC candidates for the 2015 UK General Election

AberavonOwen Herbert
Aberdeen NorthTyrinne Rutherford
BarkingJoseph Mambuliya
Barnsley CentralDave Gibson
Barnsley EastRalph Dyson
Batley & SpenDawn Wheelhouse
Bermondsey & Old SouthwarkKingsley Abrams
Bethnal Green & BowGlyn Robbins
Birmingham ErdingtonTed Woodley
Birmingham Perry BarrRobert Punton
Birmingham YardleyEamonn Flynn
Bolton WestJohn Vickers
BootlePete Glover***
Brent CentralJohn Boyle
BridgendAaron David
Bristol EastMatt Gordon
Bristol North WestAnne Lemon
Bristol SouthTom Baldwin***
CaerphillyJaime Davies
Camberwell & PeckhamNick Wrack
Cardiff CentralSteve Williams
Cardiff South & PenarthRoss Saunders
Cardiff WestHelen Jones
CeredigionJack Huggins
Chatham & AylesfordRichard Andrzejak
ChesterfieldMatt Whale
Chingford & Woodford GreenLen Hockey
CleethorpesMalcolm Morland***
Coventry North EastNicky Downes
Coventry North WestDave Nellist
Coventry SouthJudy Griffiths****
Croydon CentralApril Ashley
Croydon NorthGlen Hart
DarlingtonAlan Docherty
Derby SouthChris Fernandez
Don ValleySteve Williams
Doncaster CentralMehwash Akram
Doncaster NorthMary Jackson
Dudley NorthDave Pitt
Dulwich & West NorwoodSteve Nally
Dundee EastCarlo Morelli
Dundee WestJim McFarlane
Ealing NorthDavid Hofman
East HamLois Austin
Edinburgh EastAyesha Saleem
Edinburgh North & LeithBruce Whitehead
EdmontonLewis Peacock
Ellesmere Port & NestonFelicity Dowling
Enfield NorthJoe Simpson
ExeterEdmund Potts
Folkestone & HytheSeth Cruse
Gillingham & RainhamJacqui Berry
Glasgow CentralAndrew Elliott
Glasgow NorthAngela McCormick
Glasgow North EastJamie Cocozza
Glasgow SouthBrian Smith
GloucesterSue Powell
GowerMark Evans
Great GrimsbyVal O'Flynn
Greenwich & WoolwichLynne Chamberlain
Hackney South & ShoreditchBrian Debus
HarlowDavid Brown
Harrow EastNana Asante
HoveDave Hill
HuddersfieldMike Forster
Hull West & HesslePaul Spooner
IslwynJoshua Rawcliffe
JarrowNorman Hall
Kingston & SurbitonLaurel Forgarty
KingswoodRichard Worth
Leeds CentralLiz Kitching
Leeds WestBen Mayor
Leicester EastMichael Barker
Leicester SouthAndrew Walton
Leicester WestHeather Rawling
LeighStephen Hall
Lewisham DeptfordChris Flood
Lewisham West & PengeMartin Powell-Davies
LincolnElaine Smith
Liverpool RiversideTony Mulhearn
Liverpool WavertreeDave Walsh
LlanelliScott Jones
Manchester CentralAlex Davidson
Manchester GortonSimon Hickman
MansfieldKaren Seymour
Milton Keynes NorthKatie Simpson
Newcastle Upon Tyne EastPaul Phillips
Newton AbbotSean Brogan
Nottingham NorthCathy Meadows
Nottingham SouthAndrew Clayworth
NuneatonPaul Reilly
OgmoreEmma Saunders
Oxford EastJames Morbin
Paisley & Renfrewshire NorthJim Halfpenny
Plymouth Moor ViewLouise Parker
PontypriddEsther Pearson
Poplar & LimehouseHugo Pierre
Portsmouth NorthJon Woods
Portsmouth SouthSean Hoyle
Reading WestNeil Adams
Rochester & StroodDan Burn
RotherhamPat McLaughlin
RugbyPete McLaren
Ruislip, Northwood & PinnerWally Kennedy
Salford & EcclesNoreen Bailey
Sheffield Brightside & HillsboroughMaxine Bowler***
Sheffield HeeleyAlan Munro
Sheffield South EastIan Whitehouse
Southampton ItchenSue Atkins
Southampton TestNick Chaffey
SpelthornePaul Couchman***
StevenageTrevor Palmer
Stoke-on-Trent SouthMatt Wright
StreathamUnjum Mirza
Sutton & CheamPauline Gorman
Swansea WestRonnie Job
Taunton DeaneStephen German
TottenhamJenny Sutton***
Tyneside NorthTim Wall
Uxbridge & South RuislipGary Harbord
WakefieldMick Griffiths
Walsall NorthPete Smith***
WalthamstowNancy Taaffe
Warrington SouthKevin Bennett
Warwickshire NorthEileen Hunter
Washington & Sunderland WestGary Duncan
WatfordMark O'Connor
Weaver ValeJoseph Whyte
Welwyn HatfieldRichard Shattock
WorcesterPete McNally
Worsley & Eccles SouthSteve North
Wythenshawe & Sale EastLynn Worthington***
York CentralMegan Ollerhead

Seat forecast for the UK General Election from ElectionForecast.co.uk

Our model combines data provided by YouGov with all publicly released national and constituency polls, historical election results, and data from the UK Census. Daily updates to the website are posted by Jack Blumenau, London School of Economics, most recently on 31 March 2015. To read commentary on the election using these forecasts, follow Election4castUK on Twitter. If you would like to give us feedback on this forecast, please email us at

When reading our seat predictions, please keep in mind that our model may not know as much about your specific seat of interest as you do. The model knows how the general patterns of support across the UK have changed in constituencies with different kinds of political, geographic and demographic characteristics. The model uses the Ashcroft constituency polls where available, plus smaller samples of polling data for every constituency, extracted from pooling many national-level polls. However, the model does not know whether your MP is beloved by constituents or embroiled in scandal, nor does it know whether Boris Johnson or Nigel Farage is standing in your constituency, let alone what the implications of that might be. Some of this might be picked up in the polls, but not all of it will be, and we do not have much polling data to go on when it comes to constituencies. In the aggregate, these aspects of constituency-specific competition tend to average out across parties, but they certainly matter in individual constituencies. Think of our seat-level projections as a baseline for what you might expect from past election results, geography and demography, plus a little bit of polling data.
Sortable table of predicted vote share for every party in every seat.
Sortable table of 90% prediction intervals for vote share for every party in every seat.
Sortable table of predicted probability of victory for every party in every seat.
The following tables focuses on potential seat gains and losses for each of the parties, including only those seats for which the probability of a change of control is estimated at over 10%. If the table is blank, there are currently no such seats.
Conservatives: Gains Losses
Labour: Gains Losses
Liberal Democrats: Gains Losses
SNP: Gains Losses
Plaid Cymru: Gains Losses
Greens: Gains Losses
UKIP: Gains Losses
The following table provides the individual seat predictions, aggregated up to England, Scotland and Wales. Please note that these may not exactly match the totals in the main forecast table, as they are based on the individual seat forecasts..
England 277 232 21 0 0 1 1 1
Scotland 3 13 2 41 0 0 0 0
Wales 7 30 2 0 1 0 0 0
The following table provides the individual seat predictions (columns), aggregated by the party that won the seat at the 2010 general election (rows). Please note that these may not exactly match the totals in the main forecast table, as they are based on the individual seat forecasts..

2010 Con 272 33 0 0 0 0 1 0
2010 Lab 1 230 0 27 0 0 0 0
2010 LD 14 10 25 8 0 0 0 0
2010 SNP 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 0
2010 PC 0 2 0 0 1 0 0 0
2010 GRN 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
2010 UKIP 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2010 Oth 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1

Prediction for Scottish Westminster seats #GE2015

Predictions of seats won at Westminster

Party2010 Votes2010 SeatsPred VotesPred Seats
Prediction based on opinion polls from 06 Mar 2015 to 25 Mar 2015, sampling 4,644 people.

Electoral Calculus Live #GE2015 PREDICTION

Live Prediction: Labour short 43 of majority

Party2010 Votes2010 SeatsPred VotesPred Seats
Prediction based on opinion polls from 08 Mar 2015 to 30 Mar 2015, sampling 16,199 people.

Probability of possible outcomes

Labour majority
Conservative majority
Lab/Nat coalition
Con/Nat coalition
Lab choice of Lib/Nat
Nat choice of Con/Lab
Con choice of Lib/Nat
No overall control
The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election.



https://yougov.co.uk/refer/HdvYK1txkm0PfdJX43_Iow/ <<< follow the link if you would like to join the YOUGOV panel and have your opinions heard

YouGov Daily Briefing 31/03/2015

https://yougov.co.uk/refer/HdvYK1txkm0PfdJX43_Iow/ <<< follow the link if you would like to join the YOUGOV panel and have your opinions heard

Our latest voting intention figures for The Sun this morning are CON 35%, LAB 35%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 12%, GRN 5%.
  • The Conservatives and Labour are tied.
  • 38% of people approve of the government's record to date, 48% disapprove.
  • The Conservatives are trusted on unemployment over Labour by 34% to 29%.
  • Labour are trusted on the NHS over the Conservatives by 39% to 25%.
    YOUGOV POLLING (Voting Intention v The Economy)
Welsh Voting Intention
Our latest Westminster voting intention figures in Wales for ITV Wales are LAB 40%, CON 25%, UKIP 14%, PC 11%, LD 5%, GRN 5%.
  • By 40% to 37% people are against tax raising powers for the Welsh Assembly.
  • Health (52%), immigration (49%) and the economy (46%) are seen as the top issues facing the country.
  • Only 5% of respondents say increased powers for Wales is one of the most important issues facing the country.
    YouGov / ITV Wales Survey Results
Current Issues 

British Business
  • By 44% to 23% the public thought a Conservative government would be good for British business when we asked the question in February.
  • By 43% to 19% a Labour government was seen to be bad for British business.
  • Asked about the government’s attitude to big business, half of respondents (49%) said the government should stand up to big businesses while 31% said they should try and support them.

YOUGOV POLLING (Voting Intention v The Economy)

https://yougov.co.uk/refer/HdvYK1txkm0PfdJX43_Iow/ <<< follow the link if you would like to join the YOUGOV panel and have your opinions heard

YouGov / ITV Wales Survey Results

https://yougov.co.uk/refer/HdvYK1txkm0PfdJX43_Iow/ <<< follow the link if you would like to join the YOUGOV panel and have your opinions heard

Schedule of Party Political Broadcasts so far

scheduled so far:
Mon 30th - Conservative
Tue 31st - Labour
Wed 1st - Liberal Democrat
Thu 2nd - UKIP

Tue 7th - Conservative
Wed 8th - Labour
Thu 9th - Green

The full list will be published when all nominations are submitted.


By Adam Ludlow
Senior Consultant, Political & Media Team
Parliament is dissolved, David Cameron has returned from the Palace and has put the question to the country, do you want him or Ed Miliband as Prime Minister? If the question were only that simple. With the state of British politics as it is, things are far more complicated.

When given a straight choice between a Labour-led government and a Conservative-led government after the next election, the public are split: 41% favouring a blue tinted government and 42% preferring red.
However, when presented with a decision between a Conservative – Liberal Democrat coalition and a Labour – SNP coalition, there is a clear preference for the partnership that has governed for the last five years: 45% of the general public say that they would prefer the Conservative - Liberal Democrat option, compared to just a third (33%) who prefer the Labour – SNP option.
The curtain rises on the campaign with our latest poll for ITV News and the Daily Mail showing a four point Conservative lead over Labour, their largest lead since September 2010.
In more good news for the Tories, the 36% they recorded is their highest share of the vote for more than three years. Last time they reached such dizzying heights was in February 2012, immediately before the Omnishambles budget.
The poll also sees UKIP remaining ahead of the Liberal Democrats by a small margin, with the Greens back down to 5%.
Much has been made of the “Paxman effect” and what impact his grilling of the Prime Ministerial hopefuls may have had on the polls. It’s worth remembering only 3 million people watched the programme. Our poll suggests little evidence of the “Miliband bounce” that has been described elsewhere.
With the first telephone poll to be conducted since last Thursday’s non-debate, the ComRes / ITV News / Daily Mail contribution shows not only a Conservative lead, but also a fall in the proportion choosing Mr Miliband over Mr Cameron as their preferred Prime Minister. This suggests that any apparent “Miliband bounce” was most likely to be statistical variation.
In truth, it is unlikely that the Paxman interviews will have had any significant impact on the national election, at most it may have served to embolden each side’s own supporters. Type text here

“Watch the trend not the lead” is the best bit of advice we can offer to all Pollwatchers over the coming 38 days. The four-point Conservative lead in our latest poll was not remarkable because it came after the interviews. But rather because, in this volatile election, it continued to show the longer term trend pointing towards the Conservatives beginning to dig in and strengthen their position.


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