Latest General Election Prediction from Electoral Calculus 22/03/15

Live Prediction: Labour short 26 of majority

Party	2010 Votes	2010 Seats	Pred Votes	Pred Seats
CON	37.0%	307	33.2%	267
LAB	29.7%	258	34.0%	300
LIB	23.6%	57	7.9%	14
UKIP	3.2%	0	14.9%	1
Green	1.0%	1	4.7%	1
SNP	1.7%	6	3.7%	46
PlaidC	0.6%	3	0.6%	3
Minor	3.4%	0	1.0%	0
N.Ire		18		18

Prediction based on opinion polls from 08 Mar 2015 to 21 Mar 2015, sampling 11,755 people.

Probability of possible outcomes

Labour majority	34%
Lab/Nat coalition	16%
Conservative majority	14%
Nat choice of Con/Lab	13%
Con/Nat coalition	10%
Lab choice of Lib/Nat	9%
Con choice of Lib/Nat	4%
No overall control	1%

The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election.

Changes since yesterday see this link

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