Sunday 22 March 2015

Latest General Election Prediction from Electoral Calculus 22/03/15

Live Prediction: Labour short 26 of majority

Party2010 Votes2010 SeatsPred VotesPred Seats
CON37.0%30733.2%267
LAB29.7%25834.0%300
LIB23.6%577.9%14
UKIP3.2%014.9%1
Green1.0%14.7%1
SNP1.7%63.7%46
PlaidC0.6%30.6%3
Minor3.4%01.0%0
N.Ire 18 18
Prediction based on opinion polls from 08 Mar 2015 to 21 Mar 2015, sampling 11,755 people.

Probability of possible outcomes

Labour majority
34%
Lab/Nat coalition
16%
Conservative majority
14%
Nat choice of Con/Lab
13%
Con/Nat coalition
10%
Lab choice of Lib/Nat
9%
Con choice of Lib/Nat
4%
No overall control
1%
The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election.

Changes since yesterday see this link




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