Wednesday 25 March 2015

UK General Election Forecast from

Our model combines data provided by YouGov with all publicly released national and constituency polls, historical election results, and data from the UK Census. Daily updates to the website are posted by Jack Blumenau, London School of Economics, most recently on 25 March 2015. To read commentary on the election using these forecasts, follow Election4castUK on Twitter. If you would like to give us feedback on this forecast, please email us at
 Our current prediction is that there will be no overall majority, but that the Conservatives will be the largest party with 284 seats. However, based on the historical relationships between the sources of information we are using in our forecast and the outcome of UK elections, we know there is substantial uncertainty in our forecast. The sidebar at right includes predictive probabilities of the key outcomes of the election, as well as vote and seat forecasts for each party with 90% uncertainty intervals.
  • And now the party forecast...
    • Conservatives. Holding steady over the past fortnight. Seat loss very likely. Majority very unlikely. Plurality possible.
    • Labour. Rising slightly. Seat gain very likely. Majority very unlikely. Plurality possible.
    • Liberal Democrats. Holding steady. Seat loss almost certain.
    • SNP. Holding steady. Seat gain almost certain.
    • Plaid Cymru. Holding steady. Seat loss probable.
    • Greens. Holding steady. Seat loss unlikely.
    • UKIP. Fading slightly. Seat gain very likely.
Party Lo Seats Hi Swing
Conservatives 243 284 323 -22
Labour 236 278 324 20
SNP 23 39 52 33
Liberal Democrats 17 26 36 -31
DUP 7 8 10 -1
SDLP 1 3 3 0
Plaid Cymru 1 2 4 -1
UKIP 0 1 2 1
Greens 0 1 1 0
Other 7 8 10 1
Seat-by-seat predictions based on the party predicted to be most likely to win each seat.

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